Spatial analysis of propagation thresholds from meteorological to hydrological droughts in the São Francisco River catchment, Brazil

Spatial analysis of propagation thresholds from meteorological to hydrological droughts in the São Francisco River catchment, Brazil | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Spatial analysis of propagation thresholds from meteorological to hydrological droughts in the São Francisco River catchment, Brazil Lucas Magalhães, Vinicius Raposo, Veber Costa This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4843520/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 04 Jul, 2025 Read the published version in Natural Hazards → Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Effective water management requires a deeper understanding of the spatiotemporal dynamics of droughts. In this sense, comprehending drought development, under the influence of climate conditions and catchment characteristics, can enhance the strategies for minoring its adverse impacts. Based on these arguments, this study resorts to a probabilistic approach for assessing the likelihood of occurrence of a hydrological drought at distinct levels (moderate, severe, and extreme) conditioned to the durations and severities of meteorological droughts. Critical thresholds were estimated for 50 sub-basins in the Alto São Francisco River Basin, Brazil. The duration thresholds, whose medians were 7.40, 9.60, and 11.40 months for moderate, severe, and extreme events, respectively, were not too different across the study region, for all levels, and no clear spatial patterns could be found for this statistic. The severity thresholds, on the other hand, were more structured in space, with medians 9.80, 13.10, and 15.65 for the referred levels, but much more disperse. Additionally, we analyzed the correlations among the propagation thresholds and mean annual precipitation, baseflow index, and land use characteristics of the sub-basins, but no significant relationships were identified. Our results highlighted the difficulties in describing the spatial variability of the propagation thresholds, due to the complex interactions of climate, storage, and human intervention. Despite these limitations, the proposed approach proved able to capture the joint variations of drought statistics and might be useful for water resources management, promoting better decision-making and the development of appropriate mitigation strategies. Standardized Drought Indices Drought Propagation Copulas Multivariate Statistics Spatial Analysis Full Text Supplementary Files suplementar.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 04 Jul, 2025 Read the published version in Natural Hazards → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Major revisions 01 Apr, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 21 Aug, 2024 Reviewers invited by journal 02 Aug, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 02 Aug, 2024 First submitted to journal 01 Aug, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4843520","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":335064792,"identity":"111d79ca-ad9b-445c-a0e9-327a15e5f5ca","order_by":0,"name":"Lucas Magalhães","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Federal University of Minas Gerais: Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Lucas","middleName":"","lastName":"Magalhães","suffix":""},{"id":335064793,"identity":"dbe1154c-ca0f-4d31-b8a5-77e165cf8545","order_by":1,"name":"Vinicius Raposo","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Federal University of Minas Gerais: Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Vinicius","middleName":"","lastName":"Raposo","suffix":""},{"id":335064794,"identity":"430685c0-b959-4cd2-9100-96dc82f11f5a","order_by":2,"name":"Veber Costa","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAxklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFACHiCuYEgAMT8AcQKRWs6AVTLOIF4LYxspWgyO9x58XDnPJs+8gcew6cYvBiCDkJYz55INz25LK5Y5wGPYnNvHAGQQ0CI5I8dMsnHb4cQZDDzmj3N7GBJnEHKY5Pw35j8b5/wHaQHaQowWfgkeM8bGhgMQLTk/iNHCk5cs2XAsOXEGM1thc26DRLEEIS1s7GcPfmyosUucwd68sTnnj00eQS0IwMwAiiASNEDBH5J1jIJRMApGwQgAAFkUPxTGdVHoAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3848-2098","institution":"Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Veber","middleName":"","lastName":"Costa","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-08-01 16:03:48","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4843520/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4843520/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-025-07480-0","type":"published","date":"2025-07-04T15:57:45+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":86180069,"identity":"e4c470db-d13f-4dea-aeee-0f0db57fcffc","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-07-07 16:21:09","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2010672,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Paper.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4843520/v1_covered_c36304f0-c21d-4274-b4bd-ac38da6e0935.pdf"},{"id":63493504,"identity":"50acd021-f408-4f6e-9245-01f1147b3466","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-08-28 18:42:34","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":154739,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"suplementar.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4843520/v1/a1e879f3277644aa7317c9c7.docx"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"Spatial analysis of propagation thresholds from meteorological to hydrological droughts in the São Francisco River catchment, Brazil","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"natural-hazards","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"nhaz","sideBox":"Learn more about [Natural Hazards](https://www.springer.com/journal/11069)","snPcode":"11069","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/11069/3","title":"Natural Hazards","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Standardized Drought Indices, Drought Propagation, Copulas, Multivariate Statistics, Spatial Analysis","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4843520/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4843520/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eEffective water management requires a deeper understanding of the spatiotemporal dynamics of droughts. In this sense, comprehending drought development, under the influence of climate conditions and catchment characteristics, can enhance the strategies for minoring its adverse impacts. Based on these arguments, this study resorts to a probabilistic approach for assessing the likelihood of occurrence of a hydrological drought at distinct levels (moderate, severe, and extreme) conditioned to the durations and severities of meteorological droughts. Critical thresholds were estimated for 50 sub-basins in the Alto São Francisco River Basin, Brazil. The duration thresholds, whose medians were 7.40, 9.60, and 11.40 months for moderate, severe, and extreme events, respectively, were not too different across the study region, for all levels, and no clear spatial patterns could be found for this statistic. The severity thresholds, on the other hand, were more structured in space, with medians 9.80, 13.10, and 15.65 for the referred levels, but much more disperse. Additionally, we analyzed the correlations among the propagation thresholds and mean annual precipitation, baseflow index, and land use characteristics of the sub-basins, but no significant relationships were identified. Our results highlighted the difficulties in describing the spatial variability of the propagation thresholds, due to the complex interactions of climate, storage, and human intervention. Despite these limitations, the proposed approach proved able to capture the joint variations of drought statistics and might be useful for water resources management, promoting better decision-making and the development of appropriate mitigation strategies.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Spatial analysis of propagation thresholds from meteorological to hydrological droughts in the São Francisco River catchment, Brazil","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2024-08-28 18:42:25","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4843520/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Major revisions","date":"2025-04-01T19:06:53+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"","date":"2024-08-21T23:51:54+00:00","index":0,"fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2024-08-02T06:50:32+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2024-08-02T05:10:12+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Natural Hazards","date":"2024-08-01T12:03:38+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"natural-hazards","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"nhaz","sideBox":"Learn more about [Natural Hazards](https://www.springer.com/journal/11069)","snPcode":"11069","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/11069/3","title":"Natural Hazards","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"8b3f60ab-a7fa-42ce-b9b6-b587ca59e64d","owner":[],"postedDate":"August 28th, 2024","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-07-07T16:14:41+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-4843520","link":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-025-07480-0","journal":{"identity":"natural-hazards","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Natural Hazards"},"publishedOn":"2025-07-04 15:57:45","publishedOnDateReadable":"July 4th, 2025"},"versionCreatedAt":"2024-08-28 18:42:25","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1007/s11069-025-07480-0","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-025-07480-0","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-4843520","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-4843520","identity":"rs-4843520","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"qtupq5eGEP_6zYnWcrvyt","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}