The wild tending framework of medicinal plants constructed based on Biomod2 and PLUS model: A case study of Thesium chinense Turcz. in China

Wild medicinal plants dominate the market of Traditonal Chinese Medicine (TCM). However, the intensification of human activities and ecological deterioration have caused a gradual depletion or extinction of wild medicinal plant resources in China. Scientific planning of wild tending areas is a priority to realize the sustainable utilization of wild medicinal plant resources. Thesium chinense, a known “plant antibiotic”, has been overharvested in recent years, resulting in a sharp reduction in its wild resources. In this study, we combined three atmospheric circulation models and four common socio-economic approaches (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) to explore the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of T. chinense and the changes in the suitable area under the complete niche based on the Biomod2 package. The PLUS model was used to predict and analyze the land use change trend in the climate-stable areas of T. chinense in the future. And the wild tending areas of T. chinense were planned using ZONATION software. In the next hundred years, the climate-stable areas of T. chinense in China will mainly be distributed in humid and subhumid area, and the natural habitat areas of T. chinense in this region will decrease year by year. Hot spot analysis showed that Qiqihar, Chifeng, Zunyi, and other counties were the most suitable for the wild tending of T. chinense. These results can provide a comprehensive research framework for wild tending planning of T. chinense and other medicinal plants.