The Crucial Role of the Initial State in MJO prediction

2025 · doi:10.22541/au.173438060.05246466/v2
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Initializing the NOAA Unified Forecast System with different reanalyses produced persistent, significant differences in MJO-circulation amplitude, attributed to initial atmospheric static stability rather than convection.

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The study investigates how subtle differences in the initial atmospheric state affect Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) forecasts over the Indo-Pacific using NOAA’s Unified Forecast System, running model forecasts initialized with two independent reanalyses. The authors find significant, systematic differences in MJO-circulation amplitude that persist for 15 days, and attribute these to differences in initial atmospheric static stability. They report that the initially less stable reanalysis is linked to enhanced large-scale vertical motion and divergent winds throughout the forecast, while a convection-based MJO index shows less sensitivity, implying diabatic heating variations are not the primary driver of the amplitude differences. The paper is a preprint and not peer reviewed, and the preliminary nature is explicitly stated. The paper does not explicitly discuss endometriosis or adenomyosis; it was included in the corpus via a keyword match in the upstream search index.

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Abstract

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a prominent mode of tropical variability and a key driver of intraseasonal predictability. Accurate prediction of the MJO is challenging partly due to complex interactions with the background state and sensitivity to initial conditions and unresolved processes. Using NOAA’s Unified Forecast System, we explore the impact of subtle differences in initial conditions on MJO forecasts over the Indo-Pacific. Model runs initialized with two independent reanalyses show significant and systematic differences in MJO-circulation amplitude that persists over a 15-day forecast period. Additional analysis attributes this to differences in their initial atmospheric static stability. The reanalysis that is initially less stable is associated with enhanced large-scale vertical motion and divergent winds throughout the forecast. Notably, a convection-based MJO index shows less sensitivity to initial conditions, suggesting that variations in convection and diabatic heating are not the main drivers for the predicted differences in MJO circulation amplitude.
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Abstract

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a prominent mode of tropical variability and a key driver of intraseasonal predictability. Accurate prediction of the MJO is challenging partly due to complex interactions with the background state and sensitivity to initial conditions and unresolved processes. Using NOAA’s Unified Forecast System, we explore the impact of subtle differences in initial conditions on MJO forecasts over the Indo-Pacific. Model runs initialized with two independent reanalyses show significant and systematic differences in MJO-circulation amplitude that persists over a 15-day forecast period. Additional analysis attributes this to differences in their initial atmospheric static stability. The reanalysis that is initially less stable is associated with enhanced large-scale vertical motion and divergent winds throughout the forecast. Notably, a convection-based MJO index shows less sensitivity to initial conditions, suggesting that variations in convection and diabatic heating are not the main drivers for the predicted differences in MJO circulation amplitude. Formats available You can view the full content in the following formats: Information & Authors Information Peer review timeline Published Geophysical Research Letters Version of Record25 Apr 2025Published Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Subject area(s)

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Authors Funding Information Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 183views 115downloads Citations Download citation Lisa K Bengtsson, Stefan N. Tulich, Juliana Dias, et al. The Crucial Role of the Initial State in MJO prediction. ESS Open Archive. 22 April 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.173438060.05246466/v2 DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.173438060.05246466/v2 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu.

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