CME Forecast Verification using combining remote sensing and in situ measurements by Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbiter observations

CME Forecast Verification using combining remote sensing and in situ measurements by Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbiter observations | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article CME Forecast Verification using combining remote sensing and in situ measurements by Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbiter observations Carlos Arturo Perez-Alanis, Cecilia Mac Cormack, P.K Manoharan, and 3 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8409382/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted 7 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract In this paper, we present an analysis based on interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) detected by Parker Solar Probe (PSP) and/or Solar Orbiter (SolO) during the period 2019 to 2024. These new generation of solar missions provide an unprecedented perspective on solar transients, enabling multi-point observations, and enhancing our understanding of CME evolution and propagation in the interplanetary medium. We identified potential PSP/SolO impacting CMEs reported in CME Scoreboard populated by the Moon-to-Mars (M2M) Space Weather Analysis Office at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The team analyzes CME events in real-time and predict arrivals that may have impact to different NASA missions. This CME Scoreboard is available in the Space Weather Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (DONKI) developed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). For each event reported in the CME Scoreboard, predicted arrival times are cross-checked against in-situ observations from the PSP and/or SolO. This validation is primarily based on solar wind plasma properties and magnetic field parameters to identify the physical arrival of the CMEs. We then identify and link the ICME to its counterpart CME observed by the LASCO-C2/C3 and COR1/2 coronagraphs, also detailing its associated solar source whenever possible.We conduct a statistical analysis of the differences between predicted and observed ICME arrival times. This analysis demonstrates that the M2M real-time predictions show good performance, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.82 between predicted and observed arrival time, and a mean absolute error of 10.1 hrs, while also highlighting areas for improvement to further optimize accuracy. Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) Solar Wind Disturbances Solar Wind Plasma Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 13 May, 2026 Reviews received at journal 13 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 26 Mar, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 25 Mar, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 20 Dec, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 20 Dec, 2025 First submitted to journal 19 Dec, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8409382","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":612876711,"identity":"c8fad450-bd83-47ab-adb1-bfe88346ca45","order_by":0,"name":"Carlos Arturo 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