Estimated preventable COVID-19-associated deaths due to non-vaccination in the United States

Abstract While some studies have previously estimated lives saved by COVID-19 vaccination, we estimate how many deaths could have been averted by vaccination in the US but were not because of a failure to be vaccinated. We used a simple method based on a nationally representative dataset to estimate the preventable deaths among unvaccinated individuals in the U.S. from May 30, 2021 to April 30, 2022 adjusted for the effects of age and time. We estimated that at least 215,000 deaths could have been prevented among unvaccinated adults during the 11 months had they been vaccinated with at least a primary series. While more granular data on other factors causing differences in death rates between the vaccinated and unvaccinated groups could inform these estimates, this method addresses an important public health question and provides an estimate of vaccine-preventable deaths due to SARS-CoV-2. The same methods can be used during future public health emergencies.