Drought Analysis In Turkey Using SIR Differential Equations

Drought Analysis In Turkey Using SIR Differential Equations | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Drought Analysis In Turkey Using SIR Differential Equations Mehmet Ali ÇELİK, Volkan Duran, Murat TÜRKEŞ This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6899105/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Monthly time series of precipitation data recorded at the 197 climatological and meteorological stations of the Turkish Meteorological Service (TMS) were obtained. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) analysis was applied to the precipitation data, and the SPI drought classification was integrated into the differential equation (DE) model for drought estimation in the study. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R2) values showed the accuracy of the applied model. The findings obtained in this study did not contradict those of previous studies. The DE model indicated that the vulnerability of Turkey to drought events could be analyzed by dividing the time series into 5-year periods. According to the modified DE model, the severity and frequency of moderate and extreme droughts have increased. When evaluated in the context of the classical modified DE model, likely the incidence, severity, and duration of droughts in Turkey will increase in the coming years because of climate change impacts. In future research, it may be possible to understand the effects of drought more clearly by trying more models and integrating more data into drought models. The spatial distribution of drought can be determined by applying the differential equations model on a station or regional basis. Drought Climate Change Drought Monitoring Standardized Precipitation Index Modified Differential Equation Model Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6899105","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":482998692,"identity":"c6a5f648-909d-4d42-adda-f1cacbd51bac","order_by":0,"name":"Mehmet Ali ÇELİK","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABCUlEQVRIie2PMWsCMRSAU4Tr8tC1YLn8AuFEyFTuZ3R+cpBbInQUOnibi+6FG/oXlELnwNG6hM4nN9TbO6TbDQ5NsrandhPMNwQSvo/3QojHc5aAO28DQq4kSgztTe6OJkggsKZJRi7BUxJnGnecEffQzmC+fFt9NzF0rwspd4qnz/dFbabE4SD7O2Hqg2+fMIEAuFmrFJN1xSOTJCMmW5JSsAqwA8ENGFNPJ+scbSLHr23J5xer9jgzSU/bJB3mqT6clMAqgoWdQuxiSPviyBQl2HbBN/YvxlR8uOqLB4nRgb9sFCubu8eQzou6bt4TSvP0RetpHLYlv4mcGZ2qW2j2H9vj8XgugR/6+2oZEcAiIwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Iğdır Üniversitesi","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mehmet","middleName":"Ali","lastName":"ÇELİK","suffix":""},{"id":482998693,"identity":"7a9b50ab-35f5-49b2-b841-f18f7281c0d7","order_by":1,"name":"Volkan Duran","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Iğdır Üniversitesi","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Volkan","middleName":"","lastName":"Duran","suffix":""},{"id":482998694,"identity":"ab69f8ea-6156-4540-ab78-a0bef8924c34","order_by":2,"name":"Murat TÜRKEŞ","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Boğaziçi University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Murat","middleName":"","lastName":"TÜRKEŞ","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-06-15 15:23:10","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6899105/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6899105/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":86501938,"identity":"594489e5-a386-4613-b937-ee8b73b72b34","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-07-11 11:16:48","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1207975,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SIRdif1.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6899105/v1_covered_628b3d6b-9e26-45b9-bc19-23b1ac595ada.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Drought Analysis In Turkey Using SIR Differential Equations","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Drought, Climate Change, Drought Monitoring, Standardized Precipitation Index, Modified Differential Equation Model","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6899105/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6899105/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eMonthly time series of precipitation data recorded at the 197 climatological and meteorological stations of the Turkish Meteorological Service (TMS) were obtained. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) analysis was applied to the precipitation data, and the SPI drought classification was integrated into the differential equation (DE) model for drought estimation in the study. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R2) values showed the accuracy of the applied model. The findings obtained in this study did not contradict those of previous studies. The DE model indicated that the vulnerability of Turkey to drought events could be analyzed by dividing the time series into 5-year periods. According to the modified DE model, the severity and frequency of moderate and extreme droughts have increased. When evaluated in the context of the classical modified DE model, likely the incidence, severity, and duration of droughts in Turkey will increase in the coming years because of climate change impacts. In future research, it may be possible to understand the effects of drought more clearly by trying more models and integrating more data into drought models. The spatial distribution of drought can be determined by applying the differential equations model on a station or regional basis.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Drought Analysis In Turkey Using SIR Differential Equations","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-07-11 08:07:46","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6899105/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"7ae49409-8866-4693-9c44-d843e8f13347","owner":[],"postedDate":"July 11th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-07-11T11:08:39+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-07-11 08:07:46","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6899105","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6899105","identity":"rs-6899105","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}