Time Series Analysis of Mean Monthly Temperature in the Far Western Ethiopia, Assosa District

Abstract BackgroundThis study investigated the mean monthly temperature pattern of the Assosa district, Western Ethiopia. The objective of this study was to analyze the mean monthly temperature patterns in the Assosa district for the period from January 2012 to December 2016 based on data from meteorological stations in the Assosa district.MethodsDescriptive statistics and univariate Box-Jenkins methodology to build the seasonal ARIMA model were used.ResultsThe results showed that the mean annual temperature of Assosa was 28.025 degree Celsius. The original series was found to be seasonally non-stationary, as indicated by the ACF plot of the series. After using first-order seasonal differencing, the series was found to be stationary. A time-series model for the Assosa station was adjusted, processed, diagnostically checked, and finally, an ARIMA (3.0.1) model is established and this model is used to forecast one-year mean monthly temperature values. ConclusionThe forecasted mean temperature values showed a similar pattern to previous recordings.