North-South trade integration and asymmetric effects: Double Machine Learning evidence from EU-Morocco

North-South trade integration and asymmetric effects: Double Machine Learning evidence from EU-Morocco | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article North-South trade integration and asymmetric effects: Double Machine Learning evidence from EU-Morocco BADR MOUGHAMIR, Jihad Ait soussane, Zahra Mansouri This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8653640/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study examines a key paradox in North-South trade integration: while Free Trade Agreements aim to boost export opportunities for developing nations, they often yield asymmetric trade responses that strain external balances. We present one of the first causal evaluations of this issue using Morocco's European Union Association Agreement, which covers over 60% of its trade.Using a Double Machine Learning Difference-in-Differences (DML-DiD) with multiple time periods approach on a balanced panel of 78 countries (1995--2023), we exploit the phased FTA rollout across EU countries. Our findings reveal significant asymmetries: EU imports rose by 120.6%, while exports increased by only 26.1%, yielding a 3.4:1 import-to-export Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT) ratio (0.791 for imports, 0.232 for exports in log-points). This imbalance caused a 51.3 percentage point decline in the trade coverage ratio. Mechanism analysis shows that geographic proximity magnifies FTA effects by 25--31 percentage points; robustness checks, including Rambachan-Roth sensitivity analysis, validate our methodology. These results highlight a fundamental trade-off: while preferential liberalization expands trade volume, maintaining sustainable trade balances requires complementary policies addressing supply constraints and asymmetric market access. JEL Classification: F13 , F14 , F15 , C21 , C23 Free Trade Agreements Double Machine Learning Staggered Difference-in-Differences Trade Balance North-South Integration Morocco Full Text Supplementary Files ALEMarocDMLDIDMultiV39.ipynb DatsSetArtcleALE96Complet14102025.xlsx readme.txt requirements.txt Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8653640","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":578247722,"identity":"fbb9fec3-cead-457f-ad34-6fe92d26b88b","order_by":0,"name":"BADR 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EU-Morocco","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Free Trade Agreements, Double Machine Learning, Staggered Difference-in-Differences, Trade Balance, 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We present one of the first causal evaluations of this issue using Morocco's European Union Association Agreement, which covers over 60% of its trade.Using a Double Machine Learning Difference-in-Differences (DML-DiD) with multiple time periods approach on a balanced panel of 78 countries (1995--2023), we exploit the phased FTA rollout across EU countries. Our findings reveal significant asymmetries: EU imports rose by 120.6%, while exports increased by only 26.1%, yielding a 3.4:1 import-to-export Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT) ratio (0.791 for imports, 0.232 for exports in log-points). This imbalance caused a 51.3 percentage point decline in the trade coverage ratio. Mechanism analysis shows that geographic proximity magnifies FTA effects by 25--31 percentage points; robustness checks, including Rambachan-Roth sensitivity analysis, validate our methodology. 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