Parameter calibration and broadband ground motion simulation based on Bayesian optimization---A case study of the 2023 Türkiye earthquake doublet

Parameter calibration and broadband ground motion simulation based on Bayesian optimization---A case study of the 2023 Türkiye earthquake doublet | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Parameter calibration and broadband ground motion simulation based on Bayesian optimization---A case study of the 2023 Türkiye earthquake doublet Qianli Yang, Ruifang Yu, Zongchao Li, Peng Lin This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4561036/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 26 Mar, 2025 Read the published version in Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering → Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract How to effectively carry out rapid ground motion field under the uncertainty of source and propagation path parameters after an earthquake occurs, it is a difficult problem for earthquake disaster loss assessment. This study presents a novel broadband ground motion simulation method introducing Bayesian hyperparameter optimization into stochastic finite fault model. This new method iteratively correct and optimize source and path parameters through Bayesian optimization to reducing parameters uncertainty in ground motion simulation. Therefore, it can obtain optimal ground-motion estimation while calibrating regional seismic parameters. Firstly，using suggested method, acceleration at 12 stations are simulated for the 2023 Türkiye earthquake (Mw7.5). Then, by comparing with the records of 12 stations, the effectiveness of the method is not only verified, but also the regional key seismological parameters are calibrated to reduce uncertainty, including stress drop and attenuation coefficient, etc. Finally, the calibrated parameters are used in the simulation of the earthquake in Türkiye (Mw7.8) and the ground-motion field was well reproduced. The results show that with the help of efficient black-box exploration capabilities of Bayesian optimization, the established new method can not only be used for the calibration of seismological parameters in areas lacking earthquake data, but also can efficiently simulate the ground motion field that conforms to the regional geological environment. Therefore, it is suitable for rapid assessment of post-earthquake disasters. Bayesian optimization Stochastic finite fault method Parameter uncertainty Seismological parameter calibration Türkiye earthquake doublet Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 26 Mar, 2025 Read the published version in Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering → Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 19 Jun, 2024 Reviewers invited by journal 16 Jun, 2024 Editor invited by journal 12 Jun, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 11 Jun, 2024 First submitted to journal 10 Jun, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4561036","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":315048604,"identity":"6ddf6867-512b-4504-a31e-d85ff2f7c26f","order_by":0,"name":"Qianli Yang","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA3klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYNCCAhseNvbmAwc+/CBai0GaHB/PscSDM3uI13LYWE7Cx/gwBxsxio+fPfzijcHhxDYJng+HGXgY5PnFDhDQciYvzXKOQXpim3TvhsMFFgyGM2cnENByIMfMmMfAOrFN5uyGwzN4GBIMbhPScv4NSAsz0GE5Dw7zsBGj5UaO8WMeA2djNokcBuK0SN54Y8Y4BxjIbDzHDICBLEHYL3znc4w/vKmw4ZFvb3784cMPG3l+aQJaFA4wsEnwIPgS+JWDgHwDA/MHHsLqRsEoGAWjYCQDAFOsR6FSZffOAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0007-7322-7520","institution":"Institute of Geophysics China Earthquake Administration","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Qianli","middleName":"","lastName":"Yang","suffix":""},{"id":315048605,"identity":"bfc9bbd7-7412-44b6-8950-59611004b52b","order_by":1,"name":"Ruifang Yu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Institute of Geophysics China Earthquake Administration","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ruifang","middleName":"","lastName":"Yu","suffix":""},{"id":315048606,"identity":"ecf6c06b-f8fe-4f6f-b69e-078903896518","order_by":2,"name":"Zongchao Li","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Institute of Geophysics China Earthquake Administration","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Zongchao","middleName":"","lastName":"Li","suffix":""},{"id":315048607,"identity":"89f6a70c-ee1a-4b3a-8545-051869437242","order_by":3,"name":"Peng Lin","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"China Research Institute of Radio Wave Propagation","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Peng","middleName":"","lastName":"Lin","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-06-11 03:51:43","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4561036/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4561036/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-025-02143-8","type":"published","date":"2025-03-26T15:56:53+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":79604713,"identity":"a5d045a9-1a1b-41c8-9663-72b844959b93","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-03-31 16:00:52","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1375076,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Manuscriptyang.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4561036/v1_covered_52189b05-95da-4966-9e17-4d28d3378f99.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"Parameter calibration and broadband ground motion simulation based on Bayesian optimization---A case study of the 2023 Türkiye earthquake doublet","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":true,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"bulletin-of-earthquake-engineering","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"beee","sideBox":"Learn more about [Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering](https://www.springer.com/journal/10518)","snPcode":"10518","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/10518/3","title":"Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Bayesian optimization, Stochastic finite fault method, Parameter uncertainty Seismological parameter calibration, Türkiye earthquake doublet","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4561036/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4561036/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"How to effectively carry out rapid ground motion field under the uncertainty of source and propagation path parameters after an earthquake occurs, it is a difficult problem for earthquake disaster loss assessment. 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