Spatiotemporal Assessment of Soil Erosion and Future Projections in the Poyang Lake Eco-Economic Zone Using Coupled PLUS-RUSLE Modeling

Spatiotemporal Assessment of Soil Erosion and Future Projections in the Poyang Lake Eco-Economic Zone Using Coupled PLUS-RUSLE Modeling | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Spatiotemporal Assessment of Soil Erosion and Future Projections in the Poyang Lake Eco-Economic Zone Using Coupled PLUS-RUSLE Modeling Kaitao Liao, Zelong Wu, Yuejun Song, Jichao Zuo, Faxing Shen, and 4 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9408987/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 13 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This research focuses on the Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone in China, integrating multi-source remote sensing data and geographic information data. By employing the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, a systematic analysis was conducted on the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of soil erosion from 2000 to 2020, and land use dynamics were simulated under different development scenarios for 2030–2035. The key findings are as follows: (1) Land use changes from 2000 to 2020 were marked by a reduction in cropland, fluctuations in forestland, and an expansion of built-up land. Cropland changes were significantly restricted by topographic slope and population density, while forest dynamics were correlated with precipitation and GDP distribution. (2) From 2000 to 2020, soil erosion mainly occurred at light to moderate levels, presenting a ring-shaped distribution around Poyang Lake. The erosion intensity showed a fluctuating pattern of "increase–decrease–increase" over the two-decade period, with emerging risks of transitions from slight to higher-intensity erosion in the later stage. (3) From 2020 to 2035, erosion shows an increasing trend under the BAU and ED scenarios (moduli > 300 t/(km²·a)), while it decreases under the CLP and EP scenarios (< 250 t/(km²·a)). The EP scenario is more effective in mitigating forestland erosion, and the CLP scenario controls moderate-to-severe cropland erosion. Nevertheless, BAU and ED scenarios demand attention to localized erosion risks from built-up land expansion. These findings offer a scientific foundation for constructing regional ecological security barriers and formulating differentiated soil conservation policies, highlighting the critical role of the Ecological Protection (EP) scenario in coordinating regional development. Biological sciences/Ecology Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone Soil Erosion Land use Change Spatiotemporal Evolution Scenario Simulation Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 05 May, 2026 Reviews received at journal 04 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 27 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 26 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 25 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 22 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 21 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 21 Apr, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 21 Apr, 2026 Editor invited by journal 21 Apr, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 16 Apr, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 16 Apr, 2026 First submitted to journal 13 Apr, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9408987","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":630075056,"identity":"8c1a7e6f-d647-4067-9e63-87c958191e9f","order_by":0,"name":"Kaitao Liao","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Jiangxi Academy of Water Science and Engineering","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Kaitao","middleName":"","lastName":"Liao","suffix":""},{"id":630075057,"identity":"5d129862-0fe8-48b8-a388-bdd8f166553b","order_by":1,"name":"Zelong Wu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Jiangxi Academy of Water Science and 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By employing the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, a systematic analysis was conducted on the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of soil erosion from 2000 to 2020, and land use dynamics were simulated under different development scenarios for 2030\u0026ndash;2035. The key findings are as follows: (1) Land use changes from 2000 to 2020 were marked by a reduction in cropland, fluctuations in forestland, and an expansion of built-up land. Cropland changes were significantly restricted by topographic slope and population density, while forest dynamics were correlated with precipitation and GDP distribution. (2) From 2000 to 2020, soil erosion mainly occurred at light to moderate levels, presenting a ring-shaped distribution around Poyang Lake. 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These findings offer a scientific foundation for constructing regional ecological security barriers and formulating differentiated soil conservation policies, highlighting the critical role of the Ecological Protection (EP) scenario in coordinating regional development.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Spatiotemporal Assessment of Soil Erosion and Future Projections in the Poyang Lake Eco-Economic Zone Using Coupled PLUS-RUSLE Modeling","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-04-29 20:04:42","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9408987/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2026-05-05T14:14:23+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-05-04T11:22:02+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"27965773293505630791141219215313020158","date":"2026-04-27T06:18:38+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-04-26T08:04:34+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"327534537520659964723628851597209625002","date":"2026-04-25T06:39:23+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-04-23T02:11:40+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"288719582307139715161250849910953379490","date":"2026-04-22T03:50:20+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"222443678412925897054700197365744018084","date":"2026-04-21T14:28:49+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2026-04-21T14:14:33+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"","date":"2026-04-21T08:49:41+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2026-04-16T06:50:44+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2026-04-16T06:49:59+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Scientific Reports","date":"2026-04-14T00:41:21+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"059522af-a257-4762-a8c6-0030b512b627","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 29th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2026-05-05T14:14:23+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-05-04T11:22:02+00:00","index":38,"fulltext":""}],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":67057563,"name":"Biological sciences/Ecology"},{"id":67057564,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology"},{"id":67057565,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences"},{"id":67057566,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences"},{"id":67057567,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-05-19T01:38:17+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-04-29 20:04:42","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-9408987","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-9408987","identity":"rs-9408987","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}