Surface elevation trends in natural and restored coastal forested wetlands reveal vulnerability to saltwater intrusion and sea level rise

Surface elevation trends in natural and restored coastal forested wetlands reveal vulnerability to saltwater intrusion and sea level rise | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Surface elevation trends in natural and restored coastal forested wetlands reveal vulnerability to saltwater intrusion and sea level rise Marcelo Ardon, Peter Lazaro, Ryan Emanuel, Justine Neville, Steven M Anderson, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6830356/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 20 Jan, 2026 Read the published version in Estuaries and Coasts → Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Accelerating sea level rise and increased frequency of storms are impacting coastal wetlands. Similar to salt marshes, coastal freshwater wetlands provide important flood protection and storm abatement services, but their capacity to keep up with sea level rise and associated saltwater intrusion remains unclear. Long-term monitoring of wetland soil surface elevation using surface elevation table and marker horizons (SET-MH) has been conducted in salt marshes, while forested wetlands have not received as much attention. In 2015, we installed 18 SET-MHs in one restored and two mature forested wetlands on the coastal plain of North Carolina, all of which have experienced saltwater intrusion in recent years. We hypothesized that the restored wetland would have higher surface elevation gains, and areas protected from saltwater intrusion within all three sites would also have higher surface elevation gains. From 2016 to 2022 we measured surface elevation change and used marker horizons to measure vertical accretion. Rates of surface elevation change ranged from -4.41 to 4.81 mm/year, and vertical accretion rates ranged from -0.27 to 4.16 mm/year. All sites are vulnerable to future inundation, as even the highest rates of surface elevation gain were less than the observed 50-year rate of local sea level rise. Areas that experienced higher salinity exhibited higher rates of shallow subsidence. Our results support previous evidence that many coastal forested wetlands in the Southeastern US are lagging behind sea level rise and, if elevation change rates don’t accelerate substantially, they will experience ecological transformations in the coming decades. Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 20 Jan, 2026 Read the published version in Estuaries and Coasts → Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 09 Jul, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 16 Jun, 2025 Editor invited by journal 06 Jun, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 05 Jun, 2025 First submitted to journal 05 Jun, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6830356","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":472219202,"identity":"f05302c7-0301-4052-bc87-0b93d6f5d126","order_by":0,"name":"Marcelo 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