Spatial Flow Characteristics and Driving Factors of Water Supply Services in Gansu Province, Northwestern China

Spatial Flow Characteristics and Driving Factors of Water Supply Services in Gansu Province, Northwestern China | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Spatial Flow Characteristics and Driving Factors of Water Supply Services in Gansu Province, Northwestern China Feng You, Fushou Liu, Jing Yuan, Yi Zhu, Yinzhou Huang This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9513715/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The spatial mismatch between water supply and demand constitutes a primary bottleneck for sustainable development in arid and semi-arid regions. Using Gansu Province as a representative case study, this research operationalizes an integrated “Supply-Demand-Flow-Driver” framework to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics and transmission mechanisms of water provision services from 2009 to 2024. Our findings indicate that the provincial water resource system traced a parabolic trajectory, with the Water Security Index (WSI) peaking at 1.10 in 2019 before plummeting to 0.45 in 2024, accompanied by a 41.2% contraction in total water surplus. Spatially, a deeply entrenched mismatch was identified: the Qilian Mountains and Gannan Plateau function as critical ecological “water towers”, whereas the Hexi Corridor and Longzhong Loess Plateau emerge as hotspots of intense socioeconomic water demand. Furthermore, network analysis reveals that the structural connectivity and transmission stability of service flows are degrading, driven synergistically by climate change and escalating anthropogenic water appropriation. Geodetector analysis confirms that while precipitation acts as the dominant natural baseline governing spatial water distribution, anthropogenic factors—particularly land-use patterns—exert profound non-linear and synergistic enhancement effects that can amplify or buffer local supply-demand balances. Ultimately, this study emphasizes that dryland water governance must transcend rigid administrative boundaries; prioritizing cross-regional ecosystem service flows and establishing trans-basin collaborative management are indispensable for ensuring long-term water sustainability. water provision services supply-demand mismatch ecosystem service flows Geodetector arid and semi-arid regions Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9513715","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":629405830,"identity":"41d9e380-f654-4a53-abf6-0e411b5e4bce","order_by":0,"name":"Feng You","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Lanzhou University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Feng","middleName":"","lastName":"You","suffix":""},{"id":629405831,"identity":"1e7c6754-46e3-49b2-8efb-df733100f6ee","order_by":1,"name":"Fushou Liu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Lanzhou University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Fushou","middleName":"","lastName":"Liu","suffix":""},{"id":629405833,"identity":"efebbf4d-7a12-4ba1-8507-a17206054271","order_by":2,"name":"Jing Yuan","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Lanzhou University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jing","middleName":"","lastName":"Yuan","suffix":""},{"id":629405834,"identity":"6a60e504-1d76-453a-9738-b185b72dc805","order_by":3,"name":"Yi Zhu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Lanzhou University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yi","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhu","suffix":""},{"id":629405835,"identity":"4d29606a-8012-420c-9c9f-e72c33135ee7","order_by":4,"name":"Yinzhou Huang","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA3ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFACHjYwxc8OpphJ0CLZTLIWg8PEajE4f/bYY56aO3abD7M/k2CosE5sYD97AL+WA+fSjXmOPUvedpghTYLhTHpiA09eAn4tB3vMpHnYDiebHWY4JsHYdjixQYLHAL+WwzxALf8OJxs3M7ZJMP4jRssxoBbetsN2BszMbBKMDURokTzDYyY5t+9wgsRhNmaLhGPpxm08Ofi18J0/Yybx5tthe/729oc3PtRYy/azn8GvReEAhE5sAJEJQMyGVz0QyDdAaHtCCkfBKBgFo2AEAwA/+0B3k0RD4AAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Lanzhou University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yinzhou","middleName":"","lastName":"Huang","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-04-24 07:25:12","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9513715/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9513715/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":108977356,"identity":"ea2e615a-b31a-4ba4-be3e-3f4a59889d25","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-05-11 11:31:30","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1297927,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"01Manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9513715/v1_covered_142e05fe-c11a-4328-bd7e-8c752a6e9b3c.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Spatial Flow Characteristics and Driving Factors of Water Supply Services in Gansu Province, Northwestern China","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"water provision services, supply-demand mismatch, ecosystem service flows, Geodetector, arid and semi-arid regions","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9513715/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9513715/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe spatial mismatch between water supply and demand constitutes a primary bottleneck for sustainable development in arid and semi-arid regions. Using Gansu Province as a representative case study, this research operationalizes an integrated \u0026ldquo;Supply-Demand-Flow-Driver\u0026rdquo; framework to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics and transmission mechanisms of water provision services from 2009 to 2024. Our findings indicate that the provincial water resource system traced a parabolic trajectory, with the Water Security Index (WSI) peaking at 1.10 in 2019 before plummeting to 0.45 in 2024, accompanied by a 41.2% contraction in total water surplus. Spatially, a deeply entrenched mismatch was identified: the Qilian Mountains and Gannan Plateau function as critical ecological \u0026ldquo;water towers\u0026rdquo;, whereas the Hexi Corridor and Longzhong Loess Plateau emerge as hotspots of intense socioeconomic water demand. Furthermore, network analysis reveals that the structural connectivity and transmission stability of service flows are degrading, driven synergistically by climate change and escalating anthropogenic water appropriation. Geodetector analysis confirms that while precipitation acts as the dominant natural baseline governing spatial water distribution, anthropogenic factors\u0026mdash;particularly land-use patterns\u0026mdash;exert profound non-linear and synergistic enhancement effects that can amplify or buffer local supply-demand balances. 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