Coastal protection potential of natural dune systems threatened by SLR scenarios

Coastal protection potential of natural dune systems threatened by SLR scenarios | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Coastal protection potential of natural dune systems threatened by SLR scenarios Björn Mehrtens, Oliver Lojek, Lukas Ahrenbeck, Viktoria Kosmalla, and 3 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6872728/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Coastal dunes are key components of nature-based coastal protection, but they face increasing risk from sea-level rise driven by climate change. This study investigates the morphodynamic response of a natural dune system at the German North Sea Coast to five storm surge cases with progressively rising still water levels (SWLs) reflecting local sea level rise (SLR) projections in 1:7 scaled experimental test series. Results reveal a systematic transition in flooding and erosion hazard regimes from localized, collision-induced dune retreat under current standard storm surge levels to major overwash and partial dune breaching under projected SLR projections of up to +1.2 m by 2100. Characteristic dune erosion processes of periodic scarping, notching, slumping, and sediment removal were found to migrate vertically with rising SWLs, progressively relocating the dune crest and increasing risk of breaching. In addition to the total dune erosion volume, the proportion of eroded area above SWL was identified as a sensitive indicator of residual dune protective capacity. The findings highlight the increasing vulnerability of natural dunes in the context of climate change-driven sea-level rise and underscore the urgent need for improved risk assessments and adaptive management strategies to preserve sufficient dune resilience and maintain their coastal protection function. Earth and environmental sciences/Ocean sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts Physical sciences/Engineering/Civil engineering Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards coastal dunes sea level rise nature-based coastal protection dune erosion Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6872728","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":473001183,"identity":"dc9f93c2-dfe6-4161-b628-c59f28e19a62","order_by":0,"name":"Björn 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This study investigates the morphodynamic response of a natural dune system at the German North Sea Coast to five storm surge cases with progressively rising still water levels (SWLs) reflecting local sea level rise (SLR) projections in 1:7 scaled experimental test series. Results reveal a systematic transition in flooding and erosion hazard regimes from localized, collision-induced dune retreat under current standard storm surge levels to major overwash and partial dune breaching under projected SLR projections of up to +1.2 m by 2100. Characteristic dune erosion processes of periodic scarping, notching, slumping, and sediment removal were found to migrate vertically with rising SWLs, progressively relocating the dune crest and increasing risk of breaching. In addition to the total dune erosion volume, the proportion of eroded area above SWL was identified as a sensitive indicator of residual dune protective capacity. 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