Meta-analysis challenges a textbook example of status signalling: evidence for publication bias

The status signalling hypothesis aims to explain conspecific variation in ornamentation by suggesting that some ornaments signal dominance status. Here, we use multilevel meta-analytic models to challenge the textbook example of this hypothesis, the black bib of house sparrows ( Passer domesticus ). We conducted a systematic review, and obtained raw data from published and unpublished studies to test whether dominance rank is positively associated with bib size across studies. Contrary to previous studies, our meta-analysis did not support this prediction. Furthermore, we found several biases in the literature that further question the support available for the status signalling hypothesis. First, the overall effect size of unpublished studies was zero, compared to the medium effect size detected in published studies. Second, the effect sizes of published studies decreased over time, and recently published effects were, on average, no longer distinguishable from zero. We discuss several explanations including pleiotropic, population- and context-dependent effects. Our findings call for reconsidering this established textbook example in evolutionary and behavioural ecology, raise important concerns about the validity of the current scientific publishing culture, and should stimulate renewed interest in understanding within-species variation in ornamental traits.