Mapping threats to irrecoverable carbon from anthropogenic pressures and climate change

Mapping threats to irrecoverable carbon from anthropogenic pressures and climate change | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Mapping threats to irrecoverable carbon from anthropogenic pressures and climate change Patrick Roehrdanz, Cameryn Brock, Diogo Araujo, Teresa Bohner, and 9 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5702006/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Avoiding the loss of the Earth’s irrecoverable carbon – the biomass carbon that if lost due to disturbance or conversion would not recover by 2050 – is essential to achieving climate mitigation targets and avoiding the worst impacts of climate change. Over the period 2010-2020, 4.9 Gt of irrecoverable carbon were lost as the result of land conversion. The Earth’s remaining 139.1 Gt of irrecoverable carbon stocks are exposed to varying degrees of threat from climate change and the loss and degradation of ecosystems to human land uses. Here, we map threats across multiple dimensions of climate change, finding that 99.2 Gt (71.3%) of irrecoverable carbon is in the top decile of at least one out of six threats from climate change and 5.2 Gt is at high risk of three or more co-occurring threats from climate change, delineating geographies of particular vulnerability to carbon loss from climate change. Increases in mean annual temperature and increased frequency of extreme daily maximum temperatures place the greatest quantity of irrecoverable carbon at high risk. Threats from land conversion had lower overall coincidence with irrecoverable carbon, yet 43.9 Gt is in the top decile of at least one of five land conversion threats and 2.7 Gt of irrecoverable carbon are in the top decile of three or more co-occurring threats from land conversion. Nearly all potential loss of irrecoverable carbon due to direct land conversion could be avoided through land-use planning and strong policies; proactive adaptation strategies could prevent some but not all losses due to climate change. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5702006","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":413888006,"identity":"c54d0bc6-1ba7-4eb3-8901-cbabdc88011b","order_by":0,"name":"Patrick Roehrdanz","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABE0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYJACZjBiYD6AEEogTgsbXB1jA5FaeAwQWvApN5c+fPBx4R5reXP+Mx8/fNxRJ2c+I/n5gwcVdxj4pY9fwKbFsi8t2XjGs3TDnQ1nN0vOPHPYWOZGmmFDwplnDJJ9OQXYtBic4TGT5jlwmHHDwd5tzLxtBxJn8BwwbEhsOwySwuoloLj5b6AW+w2HeZ4BtdTVz+A5/pGQFjNmoJbEDcd42IBamBMk2HtgtrAfwOqXHrZkoMPSkzecYTOWnNl22HAGe0/hjIQzh3kke3iwhxgP88HPPAesbTecP/zww8e2OnkJZvYNH39UHJbj52F/gNVhWA0CAR7kmCJOCxBgt2UUjIJRMApGHAAAazJi1NTneDYAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4047-5011","institution":"Conservation International","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Patrick","middleName":"","lastName":"Roehrdanz","suffix":""},{"id":413888007,"identity":"968b1208-22b9-443d-9cd4-9e753f0a94a4","order_by":1,"name":"Cameryn Brock","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6857-6389","institution":"Conservation International","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Cameryn","middleName":"","lastName":"Brock","suffix":""},{"id":413888008,"identity":"631c4ade-f631-401e-abe7-51c33ccfe127","order_by":2,"name":"Diogo Araujo","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Rutgers University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Diogo","middleName":"","lastName":"Araujo","suffix":""},{"id":413888009,"identity":"fdedd1ee-5efb-4585-91b3-9302b6b9c55f","order_by":3,"name":"Teresa Bohner","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"United States Geological Survey","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Teresa","middleName":"","lastName":"Bohner","suffix":""},{"id":413888010,"identity":"74b19152-e533-4054-96d4-620108b214f8","order_by":4,"name":"Jacob J. 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