Gravity with agricultural data: Estimating the impacts of deep trade agreements

Abstract Modern Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) extend beyond simple tariff reductions, incorporating a range of provisions that emphasize deeper commitments related to non-tariff barriers and behind-the-border policies. This complexity complicates the assessment of their impacts on agricultural trade. By integrating data from the Deep Trade Agreements (DTAs) database and the UN Comtrade database, our study investigates the effects of deepening agricultural provisions in DTAs on agricultural trade. The analysis utilizes an extended three-way structural gravity model with a panel dataset covering 225 countries. Compared to ''shallow'' PTAs, DTAs with detailed provisions significantly boost agricultural trade, with the average effect varying according to the income levels of partner countries and aggregated product levels. However, the capacity of DTAs to promote trade is not fully leveraged in the post-pandemic period due to heightened market uncertainty. The findings highlight the roles of behind-the-border provisions in agricultural trade integration. JEL Classification: F13 , F14 , Q17 , C23