The unequal burden of rising climate risks across regions and societies in Europe

The unequal burden of rising climate risks across regions and societies in Europe | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Social Sciences - Article The unequal burden of rising climate risks across regions and societies in Europe Luc Feyen This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6369925/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Unprecedented warming (Forster et al., 2024) and escalating climate extremes (Pradhan et al., 2022) in Europe call for urgent climate adaptation. Prioritizing investments requires a fine-scale geographical characterisation of environmental, health, and socio-economic impacts. Here we map 37 climate impacts for 1366 regions of Europe in 2050 under different levels of global warming. Results show a greatly imbalanced and regressive distribution of climate risks across Europe, aggravated by increasing global warming. Human mortality from non-optimal temperatures and poor air quality ranges across regions from 50 to more than 300 deaths per 100,000 population, while economic damages vary from 0.5 to more than 5% of regional average disposable income. Mortality and economic impacts are highly skewed towards eastern and southern Europe, where wildfires, drought and water scarcity are of particular concern. This will considerably damage agriculture, reduce labour productivity and deteriorate biodiversity, while elsewhere climate risks mainly manifest through asset destruction owing to floods and windstorms, with coastal communities especially at risk. Poorer regions and older societies will be disproportionately affected. In order to avoid climate change widening the disparity across its regions, Europe needs to gear up climate adaptation action. Our fine-scale assessment helps to guide European cohesion policies in targeting regions, sectors and social groups to achieve just climate adaptation. Scientific community and society/Social sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts/Governance Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts Scientific community and society/Social sciences/Economics Health sciences/Risk factors Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change adaptation Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files Extendeddata.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6369925","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Social Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":443514493,"identity":"5d3e570c-6afb-4c56-bc9e-644b40f3c5f7","order_by":0,"name":"Luc Feyen","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA80lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACPhBRASLYG4jUwgYizoAIngMka5FIIFaLRPIDhgMVh+XMJR8f/MBQcTifX7r5AcPHNnxa0gwYDpw5bGw5Oy1ZguHMYcuZc44ZMM7EqyWHgflj2+HEDbdzzBgY2w4bGNxIMGDmJaCF4eC/w/Ubbp7/xsD4D6Ql/QPzX4JaGg4nGNzgYWNgbABpyTFgZsSnheeZwYEDx9INN5xJM5ZIOJZuIDnnTMHBnnO4tfCzJz98cKDGWt7g+OGHHz7UWBvwS7dvfPCjDLcWEDjAwNAMYSWACAmwCEFQh8SWIEL9KBgFo2AUjCgAAEhxUkacCJzqAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4225-2962","institution":"Joint Research Centre","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Luc","middleName":"","lastName":"Feyen","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-04-03 13:55:50","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6369925/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6369925/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":80790959,"identity":"81f49155-e2eb-49ad-ae17-dd3ccc932396","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-17 06:44:08","extension":"png","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":3771643,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eHuman mortality from non-optimal temperatures and air quality in 2050 for 1.5, 2 and 3°C global warming. \u003cstrong\u003ea\u003c/strong\u003e Total mortality per year for EU27, Norway, Switzerland and UK expressed in number of deaths, with indication of cause. b) Number of people (in million) living in regions with different levels of mortality rate from non-optimal temperatures and air quality. Mortality rate is expressed as number of deaths per 100,000 population. \u003cstrong\u003ec\u003c/strong\u003e Mortality rate is expressed as the number of deaths per 100,000 population and mapped for 1366 NUTS3 regions. Results displayed represent the mean estimates.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"image1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6369925/v1/2c1a695efb555696ad1a0090.png"},{"id":80790960,"identity":"34275de9-6939-443c-a197-8126bac1fba8","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-17 06:44:08","extension":"png","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":3690964,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eHuman exposure to climate hazards (coastal flood, river flood, water scarcity, wildfire danger and windstorm) in 2050 for 1.5, 2 and 3°C global warming. \u003cstrong\u003ea\u003c/strong\u003e Total exposure for each climate hazard per year for EU27, Norway, Switzerland and UK expressed in number of people (in millions). The total number of people exposed to any of these hazards is lower than the sum of exposed people for each hazard because some people are exposed to multiple hazards. \u003cstrong\u003eb\u003c/strong\u003eNumber of NUTS3 regions with different levels of population exposure to climate hazards. Human exposure is expressed as the share (%) of population that is exposed per year to one or more climate hazards. \u003cstrong\u003ec\u003c/strong\u003e Human exposure to climate hazards mapped for 1366 NUTS3 regions. Results displayed represent the mean estimates.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"image2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6369925/v1/87a3603f557f170e13344068.png"},{"id":80791728,"identity":"51e1c4a7-cb0b-4334-acaf-057f709ee6f3","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-17 06:52:08","extension":"png","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":3957580,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eEconomic damage in 2050 for 1.5, 2 and 3°C global warming. \u003cstrong\u003ea\u003c/strong\u003e Total economic damage per year for EU27, Norway, Switzerland and UK expressed in billion €, with indication of impacted sector. \u003cstrong\u003eb\u003c/strong\u003e Number of people (in million) living in regions with different levels of economic damage expressed as a share (%) of regional average disposable income. \u003cstrong\u003ec\u003c/strong\u003e Economic damage is expressed as a share (%) of regional average disposable income and mapped for 1366 NUTS3 regions. Results displayed represent the mean estimates.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"image3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6369925/v1/c917704907e9aabb27ee712f.png"},{"id":80790962,"identity":"97ebacbd-c5fa-46e2-816c-195e875dc05d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-17 06:44:08","extension":"png","order_by":4,"title":"Figure 4","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":4031765,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eMost impacted sectors and most damaging climate hazards in 2050 for 1.5°C global warming. \u003cstrong\u003ea\u003c/strong\u003e and \u003cstrong\u003eb\u003c/strong\u003e show in each NUTS3 the sector with the highest and second highest economic damage, respectively. \u003cstrong\u003ec\u003c/strong\u003e and \u003cstrong\u003ed\u003c/strong\u003e show in each NUTS3 the climate hazard that induces the highest and second highest economic damage, respectively. The sector and hazard aggregation are presented in Table SM2 and SM3. Corresponding maps for 2 and 3°C global warming scenarios can be found in Figure ED_EI10 and Figure ED_EI11.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"image4.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6369925/v1/4c17b8abc0acb5b1e43e64c4.png"},{"id":80790963,"identity":"025030be-37bb-4cb5-a13e-b2d8f84f8098","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-17 06:44:08","extension":"png","order_by":5,"title":"Figure 5","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":280824,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eRelation between climate impacts and socioeconomic status in 2050 for 1.5, 2 and 3°C global warming. \u003cstrong\u003ea\u003c/strong\u003e, \u003cstrong\u003ec\u003c/strong\u003e and \u003cstrong\u003ee\u003c/strong\u003e show impacts for different classes of regional average disposable income per capita. \u003cstrong\u003eb\u003c/strong\u003e, \u003cstrong\u003ed\u003c/strong\u003e and \u003cstrong\u003ef\u003c/strong\u003e show impacts for different classes of regional share of older people (expressed in x-axis as % of population younger than 75 years, so higher proportion of elderly towards the left). a and b show human mortality from non-optimal temperatures and air quality expressed in deaths per 100,000 population. c and d show population exposure to climate hazards (river floods, coastal floods, water scarcity, wildfire danger, windstorms) expressed in share (%) of population. e and f show economic damage expressed as share (%) of regional average disposable income. Box plots depict the distribution of ensemble mean impacts across regions within the class. The boxplots show the median, and the 25\u003csup\u003eth\u003c/sup\u003e and 75\u003csup\u003eth\u003c/sup\u003e percentiles, the whiskers show the minimum and maximum values not exceeding a distance of 1.5× the interquartile range, and the values beyond are plotted as single points.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"image5.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6369925/v1/9553ed8e8388976d8f5f291b.png"},{"id":88825120,"identity":"a1693e53-4fbb-4034-8110-8f180f4fb89a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-11 18:44:16","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":17145454,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"TRACEfullmanuscriptFeyenetal.3April2025.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6369925/v1_covered_a6935411-fa98-4104-8177-68405e0e859c.pdf"},{"id":80790964,"identity":"e05c46b9-6f28-4fdf-b7c2-f1e3d27120e6","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-17 06:44:08","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":11879144,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Extendeddata.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6369925/v1/d75f72fefb9178c34b445d57.docx"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"The unequal burden of rising climate risks across regions and societies in Europe","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6369925/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6369925/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Unprecedented warming (Forster et al., 2024) and escalating climate extremes (Pradhan et al., 2022) in Europe call for urgent climate adaptation. Prioritizing investments requires a fine-scale geographical characterisation of environmental, health, and socio-economic impacts. Here we map 37 climate impacts for 1366 regions of Europe in 2050 under different levels of global warming. Results show a greatly imbalanced and regressive distribution of climate risks across Europe, aggravated by increasing global warming. Human mortality from non-optimal temperatures and poor air quality ranges across regions from 50 to more than 300 deaths per 100,000 population, while economic damages vary from 0.5 to more than 5% of regional average disposable income. Mortality and economic impacts are highly skewed towards eastern and southern Europe, where wildfires, drought and water scarcity are of particular concern. This will considerably damage agriculture, reduce labour productivity and deteriorate biodiversity, while elsewhere climate risks mainly manifest through asset destruction owing to floods and windstorms, with coastal communities especially at risk. Poorer regions and older societies will be disproportionately affected. In order to avoid climate change widening the disparity across its regions, Europe needs to gear up climate adaptation action. Our fine-scale assessment helps to guide European cohesion policies in targeting regions, sectors and social groups to achieve just climate adaptation.","manuscriptTitle":"The unequal burden of rising climate risks across regions and societies in Europe","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-04-17 06:44:03","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6369925/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"d8d25278-1c4a-42e7-9553-1a80e5e73f3a","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 17th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":47219663,"name":"Scientific community and society/Social sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts/Governance"},{"id":47219664,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts"},{"id":47219665,"name":"Scientific community and society/Social sciences/Economics"},{"id":47219666,"name":"Health sciences/Risk factors"},{"id":47219667,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change adaptation"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-08-11T18:35:53+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-04-17 06:44:03","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6369925","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6369925","identity":"rs-6369925","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}