Assessment of the Past and Future Land Use/Land Cover Changes on Ecosystem Services Values and its implication for effective water resource management in the Upper Awash sub-basin, Ethiopia

Assessment of the Past and Future Land Use/Land Cover Changes on Ecosystem Services Values and its implication for effective water resource management in the Upper Awash sub-basin, Ethiopia | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Assessment of the Past and Future Land Use/Land Cover Changes on Ecosystem Services Values and its implication for effective water resource management in the Upper Awash sub-basin, Ethiopia Mekonnen H. Daba This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7165960/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Understanding past and future land use/land cover (LULC) changes and their impacts on ecosystem service values (ESVs) is essential for effective natural resource management. This study analyzes historical LULC dynamics and models future scenario to assess their implications for water-related ecosystem services in the upstream Awash basin (USAB). Using remote sensing and GIS-based approaches, the study quantifies LULC changes over recent decades and projects the future through predictive modeling. The LULC dynamics were mapped using the supervised maximum likelihood image classification approach based on Landsat 5 TM-GLS 1984, Landsat 7 ETM-GLS 2000, and Landsat 8 2019 OLI-TIRS to model potential LULC in 2019 and 2038 using Landsat images from 1984, 2000, and 2019. The study's findings demonstrate the significant shifts in LULC between 1984 and 2019, with urbanization and agricultural growth serving as the primary causes. Between 1984 and 2019, urban area grew by 570.5%, agricultural by 62%, and forests by 88.7%. In the same year, there was a 68.6% decline in the area of shrub-land, a 65.5% decrease in the area of water, and a 57.7% decrease in the area of grassland. According to future projects, there will be a comparable decrease in agricultural land, forest land, grassland, and water bodies as urban areas (109%) and agricultural land (49%) continue to grow. The results showed that ESV decreased from US $ 739.51 million to US $ 338.97 million between 1984 and 2019, and it is predicted to drop to US $ 279.6 million in 2038. The shrub-land had the highest ESV, followed by the cultivated land. The change in ESV in the study USAB results in a net negative loss of US $ 400 between 1984 and 2019, and projected to drop to US $ 59 million between 1984 and 2038. This suggests that the ESV has decreased dramatically as results of the slight decreased in the amount of forest and shrub-land. The results indicate significant shifts in LULC, particularly urban expansion, deforestation, and agricultural intensification, leading to alterations in ecosystem functions. These changes affect key ecosystem services, including water regulation, water supply, gas and climate regulation and water purification, ultimately influencing water availability. The findings provide insight into how shifts in land cover influence water-related ecosystem services, and hydrological processes, ultimately guiding policymakers to prioritize ecological conservation for effective water resource management. Land use/land cover change ecosystem service values hydrological processes water resource management remote sensing and GIS Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7165960","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":488457239,"identity":"4426ff91-978d-4819-a1dd-9b228a7d6e99","order_by":0,"name":"Mekonnen H. 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This study analyzes historical LULC dynamics and models future scenario to assess their implications for water-related ecosystem services in the upstream Awash basin (USAB). Using remote sensing and GIS-based approaches, the study quantifies LULC changes over recent decades and projects the future through predictive modeling. The LULC dynamics were mapped using the supervised maximum likelihood image classification approach based on Landsat 5 TM-GLS 1984, Landsat 7 ETM-GLS 2000, and Landsat 8 2019 OLI-TIRS to model potential LULC in 2019 and 2038 using Landsat images from 1984, 2000, and 2019. The study's findings demonstrate the significant shifts in LULC between 1984 and 2019, with urbanization and agricultural growth serving as the primary causes. Between 1984 and 2019, urban area grew by 570.5%, agricultural by 62%, and forests by 88.7%. In the same year, there was a 68.6% decline in the area of shrub-land, a 65.5% decrease in the area of water, and a 57.7% decrease in the area of grassland. According to future projects, there will be a comparable decrease in agricultural land, forest land, grassland, and water bodies as urban areas (109%) and agricultural land (49%) continue to grow. The results showed that ESV decreased from US\u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e 739.51\u0026nbsp;million to US\u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e 338.97\u0026nbsp;million between 1984 and 2019, and it is predicted to drop to US\u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e 279.6\u0026nbsp;million in 2038. The shrub-land had the highest ESV, followed by the cultivated land. The change in ESV in the study USAB results in a net negative loss of US\u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e400 between 1984 and 2019, and projected to drop to US\u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e59\u0026nbsp;million between 1984 and 2038. This suggests that the ESV has decreased dramatically as results of the slight decreased in the amount of forest and shrub-land. The results indicate significant shifts in LULC, particularly urban expansion, deforestation, and agricultural intensification, leading to alterations in ecosystem functions. These changes affect key ecosystem services, including water regulation, water supply, gas and climate regulation and water purification, ultimately influencing water availability. The findings provide insight into how shifts in land cover influence water-related ecosystem services, and hydrological processes, ultimately guiding policymakers to prioritize ecological conservation for effective water resource management.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Assessment of the Past and Future Land Use/Land Cover Changes on Ecosystem Services Values and its implication for effective water resource management in the Upper Awash sub-basin, Ethiopia","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-07-22 09:01:19","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7165960/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"c681868d-9b06-48c4-9a94-0114b6087b86","owner":[],"postedDate":"July 22nd, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-07-23T04:23:33+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-07-22 09:01:19","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7165960","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7165960","identity":"rs-7165960","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}