Downscaled climate projections of tropical and ex-tropical cyclones over the southwest Pacific

Downscaled climate projections of tropical and ex-tropical cyclones over the southwest Pacific | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 11 March 2025 V1 Latest version Share on Downscaled climate projections of tropical and ex-tropical cyclones over the southwest Pacific Authors : Peter B Gibson 0000-0003-2095-5165 [email protected] , Hamish Lewis 0009-0007-5287-5190 , Isaac Campbell 0009-0008-1926-2074 , Neelesh Rampal , Nicolas C Fauchereau 0000-0002-9152-906X , and Luke James Harrington Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.174172611.16719046/v1 Published Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Version of record Peer review timeline 350 views 202 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Reliable projections of tropical cyclones (TCs) and associated impacts remain hampered by both climate model resolution and simulation length. To address this, here we present updated projections of TCs for the southwest Pacific from a high-resolution downscaled ensemble of CMIP6 models. The downscaling implements a variable-resolution atmospheric model enhancing resolution over the southwest Pacific and New Zealand (~12-30km). We assess future changes in TC frequency, changes in large-scale environmental conditions, and associated extreme precipitation and winds across tropical and ex-tropical storm phases. Changes in TC track pathways are also investigated through cluster analysis. Across the downscaled simulations, robust changes in TC frequency were not found, including for a high-emissions scenario at end-of-century. Projections of the background environmental conditions are shown to be a significant source of uncertainty, owing to diverging projections of relative SST and tropical convection across the region in the host GCMs. However, very strong TCs (category 4 and above) show greater consensus for an increase in frequency, with 16 of 18 simulations across models and scenarios projecting an increase. Cluster analysis of TC tracks indicates a slight decrease in tracks that often impact northern parts of Australia. Extreme precipitation associated with TCs under a high-emissions scenario is projected to increase by ~30-35% averaged across models, both for storms in the tropics and ex-TCs impacting New Zealand. This increase exceeds Clausius-Clapeyron scaling in 5 of 6 simulations. These projected increases in associated extreme precipitation pose significant societal risks despite the remaining uncertainty in TC frequency changes. Supplementary Material File (gibson_tc_projections_submission.pdf) Download 2.54 MB File (supplementary.pdf) Download 1.46 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 11 March 2025 Peer review timeline Published Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Version of Record 25 Jul 2025 Published Copyright This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License Keywords atmospheric sciences climate projections extreme precipitation regional climate modelling tropical cyclones Authors Affiliations Peter B Gibson 0000-0003-2095-5165 [email protected] National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Wellington View all articles by this author Hamish Lewis 0009-0007-5287-5190 University of Waikato National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Wellington View all articles by this author Isaac Campbell 0009-0008-1926-2074 National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Wellington View all articles by this author Neelesh Rampal National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Auckland View all articles by this author Nicolas C Fauchereau 0000-0002-9152-906X National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Wellington View all articles by this author Luke James Harrington University of Waikato View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 350 views 202 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Peter B Gibson, Hamish Lewis, Isaac Campbell, et al. Downscaled climate projections of tropical and ex-tropical cyclones over the southwest Pacific. Authorea . 11 March 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.174172611.16719046/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . Format Please select one from the list RIS (ProCite, Reference Manager) EndNote BibTex Medlars RefWorks Direct import Tips for downloading citations document.getElementById('citMgrHelpLink').addEventListener('click', function() { popupHelp(this.href); return false; }); $(".js__slcInclude").on("change", function(e){ if ($(this).val() == 'refworks') $('#direct').prop("checked", false); $('#direct').prop("disabled", ($(this).val() == 'refworks')); }); Cited by Muhammad Fikri Sigid, Luke J. Harrington, Iris de Vries, Suzanne Rosier, Hamish Lewis, Erich Fischer, Quantifying Uncertainty in the Perceived Risk of Unprecedented Rainfall, Earth's Future, 14 , 5, (2026). https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008121 Crossref Livio Dreyer, Thomas R Robinson, Marwan Katurji, Kerry Leith, James H Williams, Increasing landslide susceptibility and intensity under climate change for Aotearoa New Zealand, Scientific Reports, 16 , 1, (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-46684-7 Crossref Loading... View Options View options PDF View PDF Figures Tables Media Share Share Share article link Copy Link Copied! Copying failed. 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