Accelerating increases in heat waves durations under global warming

Accelerating increases in heat waves durations under global warming | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Accelerating increases in heat waves durations under global warming Cristian Martinez-Villalobos, Danning Fu, Paul Loikith, J. David Neelin This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4999972/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 07 Jul, 2025 Read the published version in Nature Geoscience → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract In addition to increasing in frequency, heat waves are expected to last longer under global warming. The probability distributions of heat wave durations are affected by correlations of temperature from one day to the next, and so cannot be simply extrapolated from changes in the probabilities of daily temperature values. Using analysis informed by theory for autocorrelated fluctuations, here we show that changes in long-duration events increase nonlinearly with temperature. This produces an acceleration of the rate increase with warming — each subsequent increment of regional time-average warming T increases the characteristic duration scale of long heat waves more than the previous increment. The curve for this acceleration can be approximately collapsed onto a single dependence across regions by normalizing by local temperature variability. Projections of future change can thus be compared to observations of recent change over part of their range. The near-future projected acceleration is supported by this comparison and consistent with theoretical expectations. Furthermore, the longest, most uncommon heat waves for a given region have the greatest increase in probability, yielding a compounding source of nonlinear impacts. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Projection and prediction Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science/Atmospheric dynamics Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files 20240829SubmissionSI.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 07 Jul, 2025 Read the published version in Nature Geoscience → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4999972","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":363275099,"identity":"d6a8c479-19b0-4bdd-a10e-dd5bc9a96bc3","order_by":0,"name":"Cristian Martinez-Villalobos","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABEElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFACxgYGBgMYB8JgfMDAIMHAwI5HywGYFiiD2QCshRmPRQfQGGwSEJ3YVfPPPtz8+UOBXR6D2OFnQMYdOfkGHrNqnhoLBv5m7FokziW2SRwwSC5mkE4znnHA4JkxI1DLbZ5jEgwSh7FrMeBhbAN6gTmxQTrBGMg4nNjMwJZ2mwfoNgMcDgNqaf5wwKAeqCX9M0hLfRtQSzHPP7xaGiRAhjdI54BtSeBhYD7GzNuGW4vEGcY2iTMGxxPbpHOKGc4YHDacwcx8WHJunwQPLr/w97A//lDxpzqxXzp9M0PFn8Py8u2NjR/efKuT429vwK4HBtjgLKh7ePCrHwWjYBSMglGADwAAeI5Q5p2De0QAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7057-5553","institution":"Adolfo Ibáñez University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Cristian","middleName":"","lastName":"Martinez-Villalobos","suffix":""},{"id":363275100,"identity":"556d4f67-4082-436a-babc-61d9a90fb1ad","order_by":1,"name":"Danning Fu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Stanford University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Danning","middleName":"","lastName":"Fu","suffix":""},{"id":363275101,"identity":"8adbe144-5e50-407d-ba3e-3de685b75366","order_by":2,"name":"Paul Loikith","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Portland State University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Paul","middleName":"","lastName":"Loikith","suffix":""},{"id":363275102,"identity":"a7f7e1cd-7126-47f9-89e3-e316438d31ff","order_by":3,"name":"J. 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