Mangrove Vegetation Dynamics in Bossaso, Somalia (2020–2024): A Case Study Using NDVI and Community Insights

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Abstract Mangrove forests are essential coastal ecosystems that support biodiversity, protect shorelines, and sustain livelihoods in Somalia’s coastal regions. This case study investigates the health and temporal dynamics of the mangrove forest in Bosaso, Puntland, from 2020 to 2024, using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from Sentinel-2 satellite data. The study reveals a moderate decline in vegetation health from 2020 to 2022, followed by a gradual recovery through 2024. This trend is explored alongside qualitative data from local community members and security enforcement (PMPF), who reported restrictions on harvesting and grazing activities near the mangroves. Field responses suggest that institutional monitoring and potential restoration initiatives may have contributed to the observed vegetation recovery. By combining geospatial analysis with ground-level perceptions, the study provides a comprehensive understanding of mangrove change in Bosaso and offers data-driven recommendations for conservation, governance, and future restoration planning.
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Mangrove Vegetation Dynamics in Bossaso, Somalia (2020–2024): A Case Study Using NDVI and Community Insights | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Mangrove Vegetation Dynamics in Bossaso, Somalia (2020–2024): A Case Study Using NDVI and Community Insights Abdulahi Jimale Said, Ali Salad Hassan This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6739366/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Mangrove forests are essential coastal ecosystems that support biodiversity, protect shorelines, and sustain livelihoods in Somalia’s coastal regions. This case study investigates the health and temporal dynamics of the mangrove forest in Bosaso, Puntland, from 2020 to 2024, using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from Sentinel-2 satellite data. The study reveals a moderate decline in vegetation health from 2020 to 2022, followed by a gradual recovery through 2024. This trend is explored alongside qualitative data from local community members and security enforcement (PMPF), who reported restrictions on harvesting and grazing activities near the mangroves. Field responses suggest that institutional monitoring and potential restoration initiatives may have contributed to the observed vegetation recovery. By combining geospatial analysis with ground-level perceptions, the study provides a comprehensive understanding of mangrove change in Bosaso and offers data-driven recommendations for conservation, governance, and future restoration planning. Mangroves NDVI Somalia Bosaso Remote Sensing Community-based Conservation Satellite Monitoring Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 Figure 7 Figure 8 Figure 9 Figure 10 Figure 11 1. Executive Summary This case study investigates the status, trends, and recovery potential of the Bosaso mangrove ecosystem in Puntland, Somalia, using a combination of satellite-based NDVI analysis and qualitative insights from local communities and government officials. Mangroves in this region are vital for shoreline stabilization, biodiversity support, carbon sequestration, and sustaining coastal livelihoods. Despite their ecological importance, these ecosystems have faced degradation due to seasonal droughts, unregulated harvesting, and grazing pressures. A five-year NDVI time-series (2020–2024) derived from Sentinel-2 satellite imagery revealed significant spatial and seasonal variations in vegetation health. NDVI values were lowest during mid-year dry seasons but gradually increased in late 2023 and throughout 2024, indicating early signs of ecological recovery. Supporting this quantitative evidence, qualitative interviews with residents confirmed seasonal camel grazing and occasional harvesting practices, while also reflecting a local belief that grazing may benefit mangrove regeneration. Government officials from the Ministry of Fisheries and Marine Resources confirmed the transplantation of 300 mangrove seedlings sourced from Alula and the delivery of awareness campaigns, though they acknowledged the absence of formal conservation legislation. The study found that while institutional enforcement remains weak—particularly due to limited involvement from the Puntland Maritime Police Force (PMPF)—community-led practices and small-scale interventions have contributed to localized restoration. The absence of legally binding frameworks, however, threatens the sustainability of these gains. In conclusion, Bosaso's mangroves are fragile but recovering. To consolidate this progress, the report recommends immediate passage of the Puntland Fisheries Law, scaling up restoration programs, integrating community-based management, and institutionalizing continuous NDVI monitoring. These steps, if taken urgently and collaboratively, can protect one of Somalia’s most valuable coastal ecosystems while enhancing resilience against climate threats. 2. Introduction Background on Mangroves in Somalia and Bosaso Somalia, located in the Horn of Africa, possesses the longest coastline on mainland Africa, extending over 3,300 kilometers along the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. This extensive coastline supports various coastal ecosystems, including mangrove forests, which are predominantly found in the northern and southwestern regions, such as areas near Bosaso (FAO-SWALIM, 2010). The mangrove species commonly found in Somalia include Avicennia marina , Rhizophora mucronata , Bruguiera gymnorrhiza , Ceriops tagal , Lumnitzera racemosa , and Sonneratia alba (ASCLME, 2010) Bosaso, situated in the northeastern Bari region, is a significant port city and economic hub in Puntland. The mangrove ecosystems in and around Bosaso not only support marine biodiversity but also provide essential resources for local communities, including firewood, construction materials, and fishing grounds (SEDO Somalia, n.d.). Importance of Mangrove Ecosystems Mangrove ecosystems offer a multitude of ecological, economic, and social benefits. Ecologically, they serve as nurseries for various marine species, including fish and crustaceans, thereby supporting fisheries and maintaining biodiversity (UNEP, 2023). Their complex root systems stabilize shorelines, reducing erosion and protecting coastal communities from storm surges and tsunamis (Earth Day, 2023). Moreover, mangroves are significant carbon sinks, sequestering large amounts of carbon dioxide and playing a role in mitigating climate change (Dendra, 2023). They also filter pollutants, improving water quality and supporting the health of adjacent ecosystems such as coral reefs and seagrass beds (UNEP-GRID, n.d.). Previous Efforts or Lack of Monitoring Historically, the monitoring and management of mangrove ecosystems in Somalia have been limited. A notable effort includes the 2010 FAO-SWALIM report, which assessed mangrove coverage and health in regions like Puntland, Somaliland, and South Central Somalia (FAO-SWALIM, 2010). The study highlighted the degradation of mangroves due to overharvesting, grazing, and lack of environmental awareness among local communities. Recent advancements have seen the integration of satellite data for monitoring purposes. For instance, Digital Earth Africa has utilized time-series satellite imagery to analyze changes in mangrove areas across Somalia, including Bosaso, between 2010 and 2017 (Digital Earth Africa, 2023). Despite these initiatives, comprehensive and continuous monitoring remains a challenge, hindered by limited resources, political instability, and insufficient technical capacity. Purpose and Significance of This Case Study This case study aims to provide an in-depth analysis of the current state of mangrove ecosystems in Somalia, with a particular focus on the Bosaso region. By examining the ecological importance, threats, and existing conservation efforts, the study seeks to underscore the urgency of implementing effective monitoring and management strategies. The findings are intended to inform policymakers, conservationists, and local stakeholders, fostering collaborative efforts to preserve these vital ecosystems for future generations. 3. Methodology 3.1 Study Area Description This case study focuses on the mangrove ecosystems located along the coastline of Bosaso, a prominent port city in the Bari region of northeastern Somalia. The selected area includes the mangrove forests situated near the Shimbiraale area and the surrounding estuarine zones where tidal activity influences sediment deposition and vegetation growth. The region is characterized by a semi-arid climate, high salinity, and seasonal rainfall patterns, all of which influence the ecological dynamics of mangroves in this area. 3.2 Research Design The study employed a mixed-methods approach, integrating both quantitative and qualitative data collection techniques between January 2024 and April 2025 to assess the status and changes in mangrove ecosystems. 3.3 Satellite-Based NDVI Analysis To evaluate vegetation trends from 2020 to 2024, the study utilized Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from Sentinel-2 satellite imagery. Using Google Earth Engine (GEE), NDVI composites were generated annually to detect spatial and temporal changes in mangrove canopy density and extent. NDVI was calculated using the following formula: High NDVI values were interpreted as healthy and dense vegetation, while lower values indicated degradation or sparse vegetation. 3.4 Ground Truthing and Field Observations To validate the satellite-derived NDVI data, a field visit was conducted in March 2025. Observations were made regarding mangrove density, visible signs of replanting, evidence of grazing, and anthropogenic pressures. Photographs and GPS points were recorded to compare real conditions with satellite results. 3.5 Community-Based Questionnaire A structured questionnaire was administered to 25 local community members , including fishermen, pastoralists, and small traders residing near the mangrove area. The questionnaire focused on the following themes: Seasonal use and access to mangroves Awareness of mangrove importance and threats Community perceptions on changes in mangrove health Knowledge of previous or ongoing replantation and monitoring efforts Role of security forces (e.g., PMPF) in mangrove protection Responses were collected in Somali and translated for thematic analysis. 3.6 Institutional Interviews Semi-structured interviews were conducted with: Officials from the Puntland Ministry of Fisheries and Marine Resources Representatives from the Puntland Maritime Police Force (PMPF) Project managers from local NGOs involved in mangrove restoration (e.g., SEDO) These interviews helped contextualize community responses and added insights into existing policies, enforcement mechanisms, and restoration outcomes. 3.7 Data Analysis NDVI time-series were statistically analyzed to detect trends and anomalies in vegetation health. Qualitative data from surveys and interviews were coded thematically using content analysis. The results were triangulated to produce a comprehensive assessment of the mangrove ecosystem status in Bosaso. 4. Result This graph illustrates the monthly NDVI trend for the Bosaso mangrove region from 2018 to 2024. The NDVI values indicate moderate vegetation density, fluctuating between 0.05 and 0.13. Notably, the trend shows intermittent dips during mid-year months, likely due to dry seasons or grazing activities. However, toward 2024, the NDVI values reflect a gradual upward shift, suggesting signs of ecosystem recovery, possibly linked to conservation or transplantation interventions. This image provides a spatial overview of the Bosaso mangrove site, highlighting the polygonal boundary used for analysis. The marked area, approximately 912,303 m² in size, is bordered by a tidal creek system, where mangroves are densely populated along the water channels. This visual baseline helps confirm the scale and ecological setting of the study area, providing geographic context for subsequent NDVI assessments. The processed NDVI map offers a visual classification of vegetation health, with green shades representing higher NDVI values. Dense green areas align with the main mangrove corridors along the creek, while paler zones suggest low vegetation or bare land. The image confirms that the mangrove distribution is heavily dependent on proximity to water flow and salinity gradients, which is typical for such ecosystems. The five-year NDVI trend analysis from 2020 to 2024 provides a detailed view of the seasonal and interannual variations in mangrove vegetation health within the Bosaso region. Beginning in 2020 (Figure 5), the NDVI started relatively high in January (0.122) and experienced a steady decline reaching a minimum of 0.060 in September. This sharp reduction likely reflects the combined effects of prolonged dry seasons, high salinity, and unregulated human activities such as harvesting and occasional livestock grazing. However, the slight recovery toward the end of the year suggests a degree of ecological resilience. In 2021 (Figure 6), the mangrove system exhibited a similar mid-year stress period, with NDVI values dropping to 0.050 in May and 0.054 in August. Yet, a strong rebound occurred in the final quarter of the year, peaking at 0.125 in November — the highest single-month value in the entire five-year span. This recovery aligns with reported community awareness campaigns and informal restrictions on mangrove cutting initiated by local authorities. It also suggests that, even in the absence of formal protection laws, community cooperation and seasonal climatic improvements can significantly enhance vegetative health. The NDVI trend in 2022 (Figure 7) shows less dramatic fluctuations. The values remained low throughout the year, with minimal seasonal improvement. This could be interpreted as a stagnation phase — neither a major collapse nor a significant recovery — possibly due to ecosystem fatigue, lack of active intervention, or ongoing low-intensity degradation. The persistently low NDVI levels during this period raise concerns about the vulnerability of the mangrove system without consistent external support or regulation. By 2023 (Figure 8), the data reveals a slow but steady upward trend. Although the NDVI values remained moderate for most of the year, a clear increase is visible in the last quarter, with December reaching 0.097. This improvement may be attributed to the lagging effects of earlier restoration efforts, such as the mangrove transplantation from Alula mentioned by government officials. Moreover, the stabilization of values suggests reduced disturbances or potentially favorable rainfall patterns during that season. In 2024 (Figure 9), the NDVI trend reflects the most balanced and stable vegetative performance across all five years. Unlike earlier years, mid-year drops were milder, and the end-of-year NDVI value peaked close to 0.10 — a strong sign of regrowth. This consistency likely indicates the beginning of a more sustainable recovery phase for the Bosaso mangroves. While challenges such as livestock access and small-scale harvesting persist, the improvement seen in 2024 supports the hypothesis that awareness campaigns, even in the absence of strict law enforcement, have started to yield ecological benefits. Together, these five figures underscore a critical insight: while mangrove ecosystems are highly sensitive to seasonal and human pressures, they are also capable of responding positively to even modest conservation actions. The data clearly points to a fragile but gradually recovering system, highlighting the need for continuous monitoring and the institutionalization of protective frameworks to build on these early gains. This heatmap visually consolidates monthly NDVI values across five years. It reveals an observable improvement from left (2020) to right (2024), with later years having darker green shades in more months. January and December consistently show the highest vegetation activity, while August and September are typically the weakest, reflecting seasonal climatic effects. The trend aligns with satellite and community-reported data, confirming a slow but measurable recovery of mangrove health. This chart shows a decline in Bosaso mangrove health from 2020 to 2022, with NDVI dropping from 0.0869 to a low of 0.0719, indicating vegetation loss. Although slight recovery is seen in 2023 and 2024, the average NDVI has not returned to 2020 levels, confirming an overall net loss. The trend highlights the urgency for sustained conservation to prevent long-term degradation. 4.2 Qualitative Findings 4.2.1 Community Insights Interviews with local residents revealed that mangrove use is seasonal and relatively infrequent. Respondents stated that they bring their camels to the mangrove area only once or twice annually, mainly during the dry season from May to September. Additionally, some community members admitted to harvesting mangrove branches and selling them to camel owners in the Sool and Karkar sub-regions. However, there is a prevailing belief that camel browsing is not harmful to the mangroves. Many locals claimed that camels feed only on the leaves and avoid the stems and roots, which, in their view, allows the trees to regenerate more effectively. This perception, while widespread, underscores the need for science-based education to align local practices with conservation goals. 4.2.2 Governmental Actions Officials from the Puntland Ministry of Fisheries and Marine Resources confirmed the planting of approximately 300 mangrove seedlings, relocated from Alula. In addition to this physical intervention, the Ministry conducted multiple public awareness and community engagement sessions aimed at promoting sustainable use of mangrove resources. However, the Ministry also acknowledged a legal gap: there are currently no binding laws specifically addressing mangrove conservation. Although a draft of the Puntland Fisheries Law is in development, it has yet to be formally adopted. The officials expressed optimism that its eventual passage would provide a foundation for effective enforcement and ecosystem protection. 4.2.3 Role of the PMPF The Puntland Maritime Police Force (PMPF), although present in the region, was found to have no meaningful involvement in mangrove conservation efforts. As a result, their role was excluded from this analysis. Both local residents and government representatives consistently indicated that the PMPF had no active monitoring or enforcement function concerning mangrove protection. 5. Conclusion and Recommendations 5.1 Conclusion This case study examined the health and trends of the Bosaso mangrove ecosystem over the period of 2020 to 2024 using NDVI time-series analysis and qualitative data from local communities and government officials. The results reveal a complex ecological narrative: while the mangroves have been under significant pressure from seasonal droughts, camel grazing, and small-scale harvesting, they also exhibit signs of resilience and gradual recovery. The NDVI analysis shows an overall improvement in vegetative health toward the end of the study period, with 2024 recording the most stable and promising values since 2020. Community interviews highlighted that local knowledge and perceptions play a critical role in mangrove interaction. Many locals believe camel grazing has a restorative effect, which, while ecologically debatable, reflects an openness to discussing sustainable use practices. Meanwhile, government officials confirmed initial restoration efforts, including the transplantation of 300 mangrove seedlings from Alula and the implementation of awareness campaigns. However, the lack of formal conservation legislation remains a major institutional gap. The Puntland Maritime Police Force (PMPF), while present in the region, was found to be disengaged in mangrove protection efforts. Together, these findings demonstrate the early but hopeful stages of a potential ecosystem rebound—provided the right support structures are put in place. Without legally binding protections, financial investment, and continuous monitoring, the observed gains may be temporary. The study reinforces the critical role of satellite monitoring tools such as NDVI and the value of integrating local perspectives in shaping conservation strategies. 5.2 Recommendations Finalize and approve the Puntland Fisheries Law with clear articles on mangrove conservation. Expand mangrove planting using seedlings from Alula and other healthy sites under expert guidance. Involve local communities in monitoring and provide them with basic training on sustainable practices. Assign specific environmental protection duties to PMPF or establish a local ranger unit. Maintain monthly NDVI monitoring using satellite data to track vegetation changes accurately. Support alternative income-generating activities like eco-tourism or coastal handicrafts. Conduct seasonal awareness campaigns using local language and community meetings. Encourage school programs and youth clubs focused on mangrove and coastal protection. Set up simple community bylaws banning off-season mangrove cutting and camel overgrazing. Include mangrove management in Puntland’s broader climate change and disaster planning strategy. Declarations Funding: The authors received no external funding for this research. Clinical trial number: Not applicable. References ASCLME. (2010). Coastal Livelihoods in the Republic of Somalia . Nairobi Convention. https://nairobiconvention.org/clearinghouse/sites/default/files/48%20ASCLME%20CLA%20Somalia%20final%20draft%2022-11-2010.pdf Dendra Systems. (2023). The importance of blue carbon: Mangroves and climate solutions . https://www.dendra.io/articles/the-importance-of-blue-carbon-mangroves Digital Earth Africa. (2023). Timely Monitoring of Mangroves in Somalia . https://digitalearthafrica.org/media-center/blog/timely-monitoring-mangroves-somalia Earth Day Organization. (2023). The importance of mangrove forests . https://www.earthday.org/the-importance-of-mangrove-forests/ FAO-SWALIM. (2010). Monitoring of Mangroves in Somalia (Puntland, Somaliland and South Central Somalia) . https://www.faoswalim.org Nairobi Convention. (n.d.). Mangrove Restoration and Coastal Community Livelihood . https://nairobiconvention.org/clearinghouse/sites/default/files/20.%20Somalia%20Mangroves%20Presentation.pdf UNEP-GRID. (n.d.). Somalia | Interactive Country Fiches . https://dicf.unepgrid.ch/somalia/forest UNEP. (2023). An inside look at the beauty and benefits of mangroves . https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/inside-look-beauty-and-benefits-mangroves World Bank. (2023). Somalia Climate Risk Country Profile . https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099062923035034613/pdf/P17624603756190c409e570193ea2ae944d.pdf SEDO Somalia. (2022). Mangrove Nursery in Bossaso Project Overview . https://sedosomalia.org/ UNFCCC. (2009). Somalia National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) . https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/napa/som01.pdf One Earth. (n.d.). East African Mangroves Ecoregion . https://www.oneearth.org/ecoregions/east-african-mangroves/ CBD. (2015). National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan: Somalia . https://www.cbd.int/doc/world/so/so-nbsap-01-en.pdf Wikipedia Contributors. (2024). Mangrove restoration . In Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia . https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mangrove_restoration Wikipedia Contributors. (2024). Ecological values of mangroves . In Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia . https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecological_values_of_mangroves Commonwealth Secretariat. (n.d.). Mangrove ecosystems and livelihoods . https://thecommonwealth.org/bluecharter/mangrove-restoration FAO. (n.d.). The relevance of mangrove forests to African fisheries, wildlife and biodiversity . https://openknowledge.fao.org/ Google Earth Engine. (2024). Bosaso NDVI Analysis Data . https://earthengine.google.com/ Ministry of Fisheries and Marine Resources - Puntland. (2024). Draft Fisheries Law (Internal Report) . Interviews with Local Residents and Government Officials. (2025). Primary Data Collected in Field Visit to Bosaso Mangrove Site . Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6739366","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":462294907,"identity":"00040174-190c-4b45-88f9-055231babfe6","order_by":0,"name":"Abdulahi Jimale Said","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"CITYCOT University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Abdulahi","middleName":"Jimale","lastName":"Said","suffix":""},{"id":462294908,"identity":"903ed9dc-5322-468e-92eb-38879f0b0f04","order_by":1,"name":"Ali Salad Hassan","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ali","middleName":"Salad","lastName":"Hassan","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-05-24 13:38:15","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6739366/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6739366/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":83601221,"identity":"df928774-bfe8-46a5-9a6c-3ab10472cea5","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-05-29 09:16:46","extension":"png","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":412418,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eMangrove Forest\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6739366/v1/9276ecf4a296bb53fed3c2af.png"},{"id":83602040,"identity":"5af237f9-679d-4453-8f42-409679e0edc0","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-05-29 09:32:46","extension":"png","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":90645,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eMonthly NDI Trend (2018 - 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2024)\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"11.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6739366/v1/f78800368afd1398d26992a4.png"},{"id":90719691,"identity":"43424094-1f78-4f61-80b0-62fc789b4130","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-06 11:16:40","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2446125,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6739366/v1/4c676a62-e406-41b8-91a3-34a419a3fcc3.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Mangrove Vegetation Dynamics in Bossaso, Somalia (2020–2024): A Case Study Using NDVI and Community Insights","fulltext":[{"header":"1. Executive Summary","content":"\u003cp\u003eThis case study investigates the status, trends, and recovery potential of the Bosaso mangrove ecosystem in Puntland, Somalia, using a combination of satellite-based NDVI analysis and qualitative insights from local communities and government officials. Mangroves in this region are vital for shoreline stabilization, biodiversity support, carbon sequestration, and sustaining coastal livelihoods. Despite their ecological importance, these ecosystems have faced degradation due to seasonal droughts, unregulated harvesting, and grazing pressures.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA five-year NDVI time-series (2020\u0026ndash;2024) derived from Sentinel-2 satellite imagery revealed significant spatial and seasonal variations in vegetation health. NDVI values were lowest during mid-year dry seasons but gradually increased in late 2023 and throughout 2024, indicating early signs of ecological recovery. Supporting this quantitative evidence, qualitative interviews with residents confirmed seasonal camel grazing and occasional harvesting practices, while also reflecting a local belief that grazing may benefit mangrove regeneration. Government officials from the Ministry of Fisheries and Marine Resources confirmed the transplantation of 300 mangrove seedlings sourced from Alula and the delivery of awareness campaigns, though they acknowledged the absence of formal conservation legislation.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe study found that while institutional enforcement remains weak\u0026mdash;particularly due to limited involvement from the Puntland Maritime Police Force (PMPF)\u0026mdash;community-led practices and small-scale interventions have contributed to localized restoration. The absence of legally binding frameworks, however, threatens the sustainability of these gains.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn conclusion, Bosaso\u0026apos;s mangroves are fragile but recovering. To consolidate this progress, the report recommends immediate passage of the Puntland Fisheries Law, scaling up restoration programs, integrating community-based management, and institutionalizing continuous NDVI monitoring. These steps, if taken urgently and collaboratively, can protect one of Somalia\u0026rsquo;s most valuable coastal ecosystems while enhancing resilience against climate threats.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"2. Introduction","content":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eBackground on Mangroves in Somalia and Bosaso\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSomalia, located in the Horn of Africa, possesses the longest coastline on mainland Africa, extending over 3,300 kilometers along the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. This extensive coastline supports various coastal ecosystems, including mangrove forests, which are predominantly found in the northern and southwestern regions, such as areas near Bosaso (FAO-SWALIM, 2010). The mangrove species commonly found in Somalia include \u003cem\u003eAvicennia marina\u003c/em\u003e, \u003cem\u003eRhizophora mucronata\u003c/em\u003e, \u003cem\u003eBruguiera gymnorrhiza\u003c/em\u003e, \u003cem\u003eCeriops tagal\u003c/em\u003e, \u003cem\u003eLumnitzera racemosa\u003c/em\u003e, and \u003cem\u003eSonneratia alba\u003c/em\u003e (ASCLME, 2010)\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBosaso, situated in the northeastern Bari region, is a significant port city and economic hub in Puntland. The mangrove ecosystems in and around Bosaso not only support marine biodiversity but also provide essential resources for local communities, including firewood, construction materials, and fishing grounds (SEDO Somalia, n.d.).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eImportance of Mangrove Ecosystems\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMangrove ecosystems offer a multitude of ecological, economic, and social benefits. Ecologically, they serve as nurseries for various marine species, including fish and crustaceans, thereby supporting fisheries and maintaining biodiversity (UNEP, 2023). Their complex root systems stabilize shorelines, reducing erosion and protecting coastal communities from storm surges and tsunamis (Earth Day, 2023).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMoreover, mangroves are significant carbon sinks, sequestering large amounts of carbon dioxide and playing a role in mitigating climate change (Dendra, 2023). They also filter pollutants, improving water quality and supporting the health of adjacent ecosystems such as coral reefs and seagrass beds (UNEP-GRID, n.d.).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003ePrevious Efforts or Lack of Monitoring\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHistorically, the monitoring and management of mangrove ecosystems in Somalia have been limited. A notable effort includes the 2010 FAO-SWALIM report, which assessed mangrove coverage and health in regions like Puntland, Somaliland, and South Central Somalia (FAO-SWALIM, 2010). The study highlighted the degradation of mangroves due to overharvesting, grazing, and lack of environmental awareness among local communities.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eRecent advancements have seen the integration of satellite data for monitoring purposes. For instance, Digital Earth Africa has utilized time-series satellite imagery to analyze changes in mangrove areas across Somalia, including Bosaso, between 2010 and 2017 (Digital Earth Africa, 2023). Despite these initiatives, comprehensive and continuous monitoring remains a challenge, hindered by limited resources, political instability, and insufficient technical capacity.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003ePurpose and Significance of This Case Study\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis case study aims to provide an in-depth analysis of the current state of mangrove ecosystems in Somalia, with a particular focus on the Bosaso region. By examining the ecological importance, threats, and existing conservation efforts, the study seeks to underscore the urgency of implementing effective monitoring and management strategies. The findings are intended to inform policymakers, conservationists, and local stakeholders, fostering collaborative efforts to preserve these vital ecosystems for future generations.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"3. Methodology","content":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e3.1 Study Area Description\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis case study focuses on the mangrove ecosystems located along the coastline of Bosaso, a prominent port city in the Bari region of northeastern Somalia. The selected area includes the mangrove forests situated near the Shimbiraale area and the surrounding estuarine zones where tidal activity influences sediment deposition and vegetation growth. The region is characterized by a semi-arid climate, high salinity, and seasonal rainfall patterns, all of which influence the ecological dynamics of mangroves in this area.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e3.2 Research Design\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe study employed a mixed-methods approach, integrating both quantitative and qualitative data collection techniques between \u003cstrong\u003eJanuary 2024 and April 2025\u003c/strong\u003e to assess the status and changes in mangrove ecosystems.\u003cstrong\u003e3.3 Satellite-Based NDVI Analysis\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTo evaluate vegetation trends from 2020 to 2024, the study utilized \u003cstrong\u003eNormalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)\u003c/strong\u003e derived from Sentinel-2 satellite imagery. Using Google Earth Engine (GEE), NDVI composites were generated annually to detect spatial and temporal changes in mangrove canopy density and extent. NDVI was calculated using the following formula:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cimg 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\"\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHigh NDVI values were interpreted as healthy and dense vegetation, while lower values indicated degradation or sparse vegetation.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e3.4 Ground Truthing and Field Observations\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTo validate the satellite-derived NDVI data, a field visit was conducted in March 2025. Observations were made regarding mangrove density, visible signs of replanting, evidence of grazing, and anthropogenic pressures. Photographs and GPS points were recorded to compare real conditions with satellite results.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e3.5 Community-Based Questionnaire\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA structured questionnaire was administered to \u003cstrong\u003e25 local community members\u003c/strong\u003e, including fishermen, pastoralists, and small traders residing near the mangrove area. The questionnaire focused on the following themes:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cul type=\"disc\"\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eSeasonal use and access to mangroves\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eAwareness of mangrove importance and threats\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eCommunity perceptions on changes in mangrove health\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eKnowledge of previous or ongoing replantation and monitoring efforts\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eRole of security forces (e.g., PMPF) in mangrove protection\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eResponses were collected in Somali and translated for thematic analysis.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e3.6 Institutional Interviews\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSemi-structured interviews were conducted with:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cul type=\"disc\"\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eOfficials from the Puntland Ministry of Fisheries and Marine Resources\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eRepresentatives from the Puntland Maritime Police Force (PMPF)\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eProject managers from local NGOs involved in mangrove restoration (e.g., SEDO)\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThese interviews helped contextualize community responses and added insights into existing policies, enforcement mechanisms, and restoration outcomes.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e3.7 Data Analysis\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNDVI time-series were statistically analyzed to detect trends and anomalies in vegetation health. Qualitative data from surveys and interviews were coded thematically using content analysis. The results were triangulated to produce a comprehensive assessment of the mangrove ecosystem status in Bosaso.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"4. Result","content":"\u003cp\u003eThis graph illustrates the monthly NDVI trend for the Bosaso mangrove region from 2018 to 2024. The NDVI values indicate moderate vegetation density, fluctuating between 0.05 and 0.13. Notably, the trend shows intermittent dips during mid-year months, likely due to dry seasons or grazing activities. However, toward 2024, the NDVI values reflect a gradual upward shift, suggesting signs of ecosystem recovery, possibly linked to conservation or transplantation interventions.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis image provides a spatial overview of the Bosaso mangrove site, highlighting the polygonal boundary used for analysis. The marked area, approximately 912,303 m\u0026sup2; in size, is bordered by a tidal creek system, where mangroves are densely populated along the water channels. This visual baseline helps confirm the scale and ecological setting of the study area, providing geographic context for subsequent NDVI assessments.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe processed NDVI map offers a visual classification of vegetation health, with green shades representing higher NDVI values. Dense green areas align with the main mangrove corridors along the creek, while paler zones suggest low vegetation or bare land. The image confirms that the mangrove distribution is heavily dependent on proximity to water flow and salinity gradients, which is typical for such ecosystems.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe five-year NDVI trend analysis from 2020 to 2024 provides a detailed view of the seasonal and interannual variations in mangrove vegetation health within the Bosaso region. Beginning in 2020 (Figure 5), the NDVI started relatively high in January (0.122) and experienced a steady decline reaching a minimum of 0.060 in September. This sharp reduction likely reflects the combined effects of prolonged dry seasons, high salinity, and unregulated human activities such as harvesting and occasional livestock grazing. However, the slight recovery toward the end of the year suggests a degree of ecological resilience.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn 2021 (Figure 6), the mangrove system exhibited a similar mid-year stress period, with NDVI values dropping to 0.050 in May and 0.054 in August. Yet, a strong rebound occurred in the final quarter of the year, peaking at 0.125 in November \u0026mdash; the highest single-month value in the entire five-year span. This recovery aligns with reported community awareness campaigns and informal restrictions on mangrove cutting initiated by local authorities. It also suggests that, even in the absence of formal protection laws, community cooperation and seasonal climatic improvements can significantly enhance vegetative health.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe NDVI trend in 2022 (Figure 7) shows less dramatic fluctuations. The values remained low throughout the year, with minimal seasonal improvement. This could be interpreted as a stagnation phase \u0026mdash; neither a major collapse nor a significant recovery \u0026mdash; possibly due to ecosystem fatigue, lack of active intervention, or ongoing low-intensity degradation. The persistently low NDVI levels during this period raise concerns about the vulnerability of the mangrove system without consistent external support or regulation.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBy 2023 (Figure 8), the data reveals a slow but steady upward trend. Although the NDVI values remained moderate for most of the year, a clear increase is visible in the last quarter, with December reaching 0.097. This improvement may be attributed to the lagging effects of earlier restoration efforts, such as the mangrove transplantation from Alula mentioned by government officials. Moreover, the stabilization of values suggests reduced disturbances or potentially favorable rainfall patterns during that season.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn 2024 (Figure 9), the NDVI trend reflects the most balanced and stable vegetative performance across all five years. Unlike earlier years, mid-year drops were milder, and the end-of-year NDVI value peaked close to 0.10 \u0026mdash; a strong sign of regrowth. This consistency likely indicates the beginning of a more sustainable recovery phase for the Bosaso mangroves. While challenges such as livestock access and small-scale harvesting persist, the improvement seen in 2024 supports the hypothesis that awareness campaigns, even in the absence of strict law enforcement, have started to yield ecological benefits.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTogether, these five figures underscore a critical insight: while mangrove ecosystems are highly sensitive to seasonal and human pressures, they are also capable of responding positively to even modest conservation actions. The data clearly points to a fragile but gradually recovering system, highlighting the need for continuous monitoring and the institutionalization of protective frameworks to build on these early gains.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis heatmap visually consolidates monthly NDVI values across five years. It reveals an observable improvement from left (2020) to right (2024), with later years having darker green shades in more months. January and December consistently show the highest vegetation activity, while August and September are typically the weakest, reflecting seasonal climatic effects. The trend aligns with satellite and community-reported data, confirming a slow but measurable recovery of mangrove health.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis chart shows a decline in Bosaso mangrove health from 2020 to 2022, with NDVI dropping from 0.0869 to a low of 0.0719, indicating vegetation loss. Although slight recovery is seen in 2023 and 2024, the average NDVI has not returned to 2020 levels, confirming an overall net loss. The trend highlights the urgency for sustained conservation to prevent long-term degradation.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e4.2 Qualitative Findings\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e4.2.1 Community Insights\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eInterviews with local residents revealed that mangrove use is seasonal and relatively infrequent. Respondents stated that they bring their camels to the mangrove area only once or twice annually, mainly during the dry season from May to September. Additionally, some community members admitted to harvesting mangrove branches and selling them to camel owners in the Sool and Karkar sub-regions.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHowever, there is a prevailing belief that camel browsing is not harmful to the mangroves. Many locals claimed that camels feed only on the leaves and avoid the stems and roots, which, in their view, allows the trees to regenerate more effectively. This perception, while widespread, underscores the need for science-based education to align local practices with conservation goals.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e4.2.2 Governmental Actions\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOfficials from the Puntland Ministry of Fisheries and Marine Resources confirmed the planting of approximately 300 mangrove seedlings, relocated from Alula. In addition to this physical intervention, the Ministry conducted multiple public awareness and community engagement sessions aimed at promoting sustainable use of mangrove resources.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHowever, the Ministry also acknowledged a legal gap: there are currently no binding laws specifically addressing mangrove conservation. Although a draft of the Puntland Fisheries Law is in development, it has yet to be formally adopted. The officials expressed optimism that its eventual passage would provide a foundation for effective enforcement and ecosystem protection.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e4.2.3 Role of the PMPF\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe Puntland Maritime Police Force (PMPF), although present in the region, was found to have no meaningful involvement in mangrove conservation efforts. As a result, their role was excluded from this analysis. Both local residents and government representatives consistently indicated that the PMPF had no active monitoring or enforcement function concerning mangrove protection.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"5. Conclusion and Recommendations","content":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e5.1 Conclusion\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis case study examined the health and trends of the Bosaso mangrove ecosystem over the period of 2020 to 2024 using NDVI time-series analysis and qualitative data from local communities and government officials. The results reveal a complex ecological narrative: while the mangroves have been under significant pressure from seasonal droughts, camel grazing, and small-scale harvesting, they also exhibit signs of resilience and gradual recovery. The NDVI analysis shows an overall improvement in vegetative health toward the end of the study period, with 2024 recording the most stable and promising values since 2020.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eCommunity interviews highlighted that local knowledge and perceptions play a critical role in mangrove interaction. Many locals believe camel grazing has a restorative effect, which, while ecologically debatable, reflects an openness to discussing sustainable use practices. Meanwhile, government officials confirmed initial restoration efforts, including the transplantation of 300 mangrove seedlings from Alula and the implementation of awareness campaigns. However, the lack of formal conservation legislation remains a major institutional gap. The Puntland Maritime Police Force (PMPF), while present in the region, was found to be disengaged in mangrove protection efforts.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTogether, these findings demonstrate the early but hopeful stages of a potential ecosystem rebound—provided the right support structures are put in place. Without legally binding protections, financial investment, and continuous monitoring, the observed gains may be temporary. The study reinforces the critical role of satellite monitoring tools such as NDVI and the value of integrating local perspectives in shaping conservation strategies.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e5.2 Recommendations\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003col start=\"1\" type=\"1\"\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eFinalize and approve the Puntland Fisheries Law with clear articles on mangrove conservation.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eExpand mangrove planting using seedlings from Alula and other healthy sites under expert guidance.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eInvolve local communities in monitoring and provide them with basic training on sustainable practices.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eAssign specific environmental protection duties to PMPF or establish a local ranger unit.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eMaintain monthly NDVI monitoring using satellite data to track vegetation changes accurately.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eSupport alternative income-generating activities like eco-tourism or coastal handicrafts.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eConduct seasonal awareness campaigns using local language and community meetings.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eEncourage school programs and youth clubs focused on mangrove and coastal protection.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eSet up simple community bylaws banning off-season mangrove cutting and camel overgrazing.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eInclude mangrove management in Puntland’s broader climate change and disaster planning strategy.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"},{"header":"Declarations","content":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eFunding:\u003c/strong\u003e The authors received no external funding for this research.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eClinical trial number:\u003c/strong\u003e Not applicable.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"References","content":"\u003col\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eASCLME. (2010). \u003cem\u003eCoastal Livelihoods in the Republic of Somalia\u003c/em\u003e. Nairobi Convention. https://nairobiconvention.org/clearinghouse/sites/default/files/48%20ASCLME%20CLA%20Somalia%20final%20draft%2022-11-2010.pdf\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eDendra Systems. (2023). \u003cem\u003eThe importance of blue carbon: Mangroves and climate solutions\u003c/em\u003e. https://www.dendra.io/articles/the-importance-of-blue-carbon-mangroves\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eDigital Earth Africa. (2023). \u003cem\u003eTimely Monitoring of Mangroves in Somalia\u003c/em\u003e. https://digitalearthafrica.org/media-center/blog/timely-monitoring-mangroves-somalia\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eEarth Day Organization. (2023). \u003cem\u003eThe importance of mangrove forests\u003c/em\u003e. https://www.earthday.org/the-importance-of-mangrove-forests/\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eFAO-SWALIM. (2010). \u003cem\u003eMonitoring of Mangroves in Somalia (Puntland, Somaliland and South Central Somalia)\u003c/em\u003e. https://www.faoswalim.org\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eNairobi Convention. (n.d.). \u003cem\u003eMangrove Restoration and Coastal Community Livelihood\u003c/em\u003e. https://nairobiconvention.org/clearinghouse/sites/default/files/20.%20Somalia%20Mangroves%20Presentation.pdf\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eUNEP-GRID. (n.d.). \u003cem\u003eSomalia | Interactive Country Fiches\u003c/em\u003e. https://dicf.unepgrid.ch/somalia/forest\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eUNEP. (2023). \u003cem\u003eAn inside look at the beauty and benefits of mangroves\u003c/em\u003e. https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/inside-look-beauty-and-benefits-mangroves\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eWorld Bank. (2023). \u003cem\u003eSomalia Climate Risk Country Profile\u003c/em\u003e. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099062923035034613/pdf/P17624603756190c409e570193ea2ae944d.pdf\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eSEDO Somalia. (2022). \u003cem\u003eMangrove Nursery in Bossaso Project Overview\u003c/em\u003e. https://sedosomalia.org/\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eUNFCCC. (2009). \u003cem\u003eSomalia National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA)\u003c/em\u003e. https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/napa/som01.pdf\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eOne Earth. (n.d.). \u003cem\u003eEast African Mangroves Ecoregion\u003c/em\u003e. https://www.oneearth.org/ecoregions/east-african-mangroves/\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eCBD. (2015). \u003cem\u003eNational Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan: Somalia\u003c/em\u003e. https://www.cbd.int/doc/world/so/so-nbsap-01-en.pdf\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eWikipedia Contributors. (2024). \u003cem\u003eMangrove restoration\u003c/em\u003e. In \u003cem\u003eWikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia\u003c/em\u003e. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mangrove_restoration\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eWikipedia Contributors. (2024). \u003cem\u003eEcological values of mangroves\u003c/em\u003e. In \u003cem\u003eWikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia\u003c/em\u003e. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecological_values_of_mangroves\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eCommonwealth Secretariat. (n.d.). \u003cem\u003eMangrove ecosystems and livelihoods\u003c/em\u003e. https://thecommonwealth.org/bluecharter/mangrove-restoration\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eFAO. (n.d.). \u003cem\u003eThe relevance of mangrove forests to African fisheries, wildlife and biodiversity\u003c/em\u003e. https://openknowledge.fao.org/\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eGoogle Earth Engine. (2024). \u003cem\u003eBosaso NDVI Analysis Data\u003c/em\u003e. https://earthengine.google.com/ Ministry of Fisheries and Marine Resources - Puntland. (2024). \u003cem\u003eDraft Fisheries Law (Internal Report)\u003c/em\u003e.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eInterviews with Local Residents and Government Officials. (2025). \u003cem\u003ePrimary Data Collected in Field Visit to Bosaso Mangrove Site\u003c/em\u003e.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":true,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":false,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Mangroves, NDVI, Somalia, Bosaso, Remote Sensing, Community-based Conservation, Satellite Monitoring","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6739366/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6739366/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eMangrove forests are essential coastal ecosystems that support biodiversity, protect shorelines, and sustain livelihoods in Somalia’s coastal regions. This case study investigates the health and temporal dynamics of the mangrove forest in Bosaso, Puntland, from 2020 to 2024, using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from Sentinel-2 satellite data. The study reveals a moderate decline in vegetation health from 2020 to 2022, followed by a gradual recovery through 2024. This trend is explored alongside qualitative data from local community members and security enforcement (PMPF), who reported restrictions on harvesting and grazing activities near the mangroves. Field responses suggest that institutional monitoring and potential restoration initiatives may have contributed to the observed vegetation recovery. By combining geospatial analysis with ground-level perceptions, the study provides a comprehensive understanding of mangrove change in Bosaso and offers data-driven recommendations for conservation, governance, and future restoration planning.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Mangrove Vegetation Dynamics in Bossaso, Somalia (2020–2024): A Case Study Using NDVI and Community Insights","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-05-29 09:16:41","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6739366/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"c49b90cf-71ee-4a75-ace5-694f1d241c0f","owner":[],"postedDate":"May 29th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-09-06T11:08:32+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-05-29 09:16:41","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6739366","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6739366","identity":"rs-6739366","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}

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