Phased Offshore CCUS Deployment Framework for Southern China’s High-Economic-Density Coastal Regions

Phased Offshore CCUS Deployment Framework for Southern China’s High-Economic-Density Coastal Regions | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Phased Offshore CCUS Deployment Framework for Southern China’s High-Economic-Density Coastal Regions Shu Jiang, Pengfei Xiong, Kai Zhang, Zhengbin Wu, Cong Cheng, and 6 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7571556/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Offshore carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) offers a viable path for high-emission, high-economic-density coastal regions to reach net-zero emissions. However, evaluating the cost-effectiveness and identifying optimal deployment timing remains challenging. Focusing on the most economically developed coastal region in southern China, this study quantifies CO 2 emissions from 23 cities and assesses the storage potential of nearshore sedimentary basins. We develop a two-stage source–sink matching model that combines geologically constrained theoretical partitioning with GIS-enhanced minimum spanning tree optimization to identify an efficient CO 2 transport network. Techno-economic analysis indicates offshore CCUS projects could begin turning a profit as early as 2037, with nearly all blocks profitable before 2040. Offshore CCUS can help high‑economic‑density coastal regions meet the 2°C target and even shoulder greater emission‑reduction responsibilities. The economics of large-scale CCUS clustering are highly sensitive to transport distance; if the distance exceeds 837 km, offshore CCUS will not be economically viable. Additionally, a regional mechanism for exchanging green electricity and storage capacity enables resource complementarities between wind-rich coastal regions and storage-capable regions, thereby more effectively advancing the Sustainable Development Goals. This study advances a generalizable approach to offshore CCUS planning for coastal economies. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change mitigation Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change policy Offshore CCUS Source-sink matching Phased deployment High-economic-density coastal regions Sustainable Development Goals Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SupplementaryDataWord.docx Supplementary Data for Highlights.docx Article File Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7571556","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":518564664,"identity":"38f6c027-5535-46f6-93ff-bc72010707f5","order_by":0,"name":"Shu 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However, evaluating the cost-effectiveness and identifying optimal deployment timing remains challenging. Focusing on the most economically developed coastal region in southern China, this study quantifies CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e emissions from 23 cities and assesses the storage potential of nearshore sedimentary basins. We develop a two-stage source\u0026ndash;sink matching model that combines geologically constrained theoretical partitioning with GIS-enhanced minimum spanning tree optimization to identify an efficient CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e transport network. Techno-economic analysis indicates offshore CCUS projects could begin turning a profit as early as 2037, with nearly all blocks profitable before 2040. Offshore CCUS can help high‑economic‑density coastal regions meet the 2\u0026deg;C target and even shoulder greater emission‑reduction responsibilities. The economics of large-scale CCUS clustering are highly sensitive to transport distance; if the distance exceeds 837 km, offshore CCUS will not be economically viable. Additionally, a regional mechanism for exchanging green electricity and storage capacity enables resource complementarities between wind-rich coastal regions and storage-capable regions, thereby more effectively advancing the Sustainable Development Goals. This study advances a generalizable approach to offshore CCUS planning for coastal economies.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Phased Offshore CCUS Deployment Framework for Southern China’s High-Economic-Density Coastal Regions","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-10-03 03:44:56","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7571556/v1","editorialEvents":[],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"communications-earth-and-environment","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"commsenv","sideBox":"Learn more about [Communications Earth and Environment](https://www.nature.com/commsenv/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Communications Earth \u0026 Environment","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"Communications Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"9e22c39e-eecc-4c87-b2a0-6f1b1ec2e0c6","owner":[],"postedDate":"October 3rd, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":55098285,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change mitigation"},{"id":55098286,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change policy"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-03-18T13:00:18+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-10-03 03:44:56","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7571556","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7571556","identity":"rs-7571556","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}