Influencing Factors and Decoupling Analysis of Carbon Emissions in China's Manufacturing Industry

The manufacturing industry directly reflects national productivity, and it is also an industry with serious carbon emissions, which has attracted wide attention. This study decomposes the influential factors on carbon emissions in China’s manufacturing industry from 1995 to 2018 into industry value added (IVA), energy consumption (E), fixed asset investment (FAI), carbon productivity (CP), energy structure (EC), energy intensity (EI), investment carbon intensity (ICI) and investment efficiency (IE) by Generalized Divisia Index Model (GDIM). The decoupling analysis is carried out to investigate the decoupling states of the manufacturing industry under the pressure of "low carbon" and "economy.” Considering the technological heterogeneity, we study the influential factors and decoupling status of the light industry and the heavy industry. The results show that: (1) Carbon emissions of the manufacturing industry present an upward trend, and the heavy industry is the main contributor. (2) Fixed asset investment (FAI), industry value added (IVA) are the driving forces of carbon emissions. Investment carbon intensity (ICI), carbon productivity (CP), investment efficiency (IE), and energy intensity (EI) have inhibitory effects. The impact of the energy consumption (E) and energy structure (EC) are fluctuating. (3) The decoupling state of the manufacturing industry has improved. Fixed asset investment (FAI), industry value added (IVA) hinder the decoupling; carbon productivity (CP), investment carbon intensity (ICI), investment efficiency (IE), and energy intensity (EI) promote the decoupling.