The wind is always blowing somewhere in Europe: A decade of evidence for continental-scale renewable baseload

The wind is always blowing somewhere in Europe: A decade of evidence for continental-scale renewable baseload | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article The wind is always blowing somewhere in Europe: A decade of evidence for continental-scale renewable baseload Jan Kren, Bostjan Zajec, Iztok Tiselj This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9278776/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Wind power is intermittent at any single location—but it is always blowing somewhere across a continent. Here we test this premise using a decade of actual generation data from 29 European countries (2015–2024), the longest operational record analyzed to date. Unlike reanalysis-based studies, operational data capture curtailment, maintenance outages, and evolving fleet composition—effects invisible in simulated output. Aggregated European wind production never fell below 5.5 GW (1.8% of 2024 installed capacity), and geographic diversification reduced wind production variability by a stable ~48%. Yet Europe is failing to harness this potential. Although installed capacity doubled, the guaranteed baseload floor barely grew—a 2.1% conversion rate—because new capacity concentrated in already-correlated Northwestern Europe rather than in weakly correlated regions like Iberia and Scandinavia. Adding solar raises the floor by 61% and, more importantly, cuts battery storage costs by 81–93%. These findings identify geographic diversification as a highly effective but largely untapped reliability mechanism for wind energy. Yet even under optimal siting, the wind baseload floor remains at just 3–5% of installed capacity, covering only a small fraction of demand; a reliable zero-carbon grid requires wind alongside battery storage and firm clean generation. Scientific community and society/Energy and society/Energy supply and demand Scientific community and society/Energy and society/Energy policy Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Energy modelling Physical sciences/Engineering/Energy infrastructure/Energy grids and networks Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Renewable energy/Wind energy wind energy geographic diversification baseload power correlation analysis energy policy 1 Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SupplementaryInformation.pdf Supplementary Information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9278776","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":623622648,"identity":"c2dc635c-8f7d-44d5-948e-d671486fd4d9","order_by":0,"name":"Jan Kren","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAuUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACxgYIZuAH4gNgRLQWyQZitcC0MRhAFBOhhbn97AHGmXts8oxvtz88wFBzhwgbevISGDc8Sys2u3MGaNGxZ8Q4KseA8cGBw4nbbuQwHGBsOEyElv43IC3/EzfPSH9ApJYZQFs2HDiQuEEiwYBYLW8MDs44kJw4A+SXhGNEaDHszzF82HPALrF/dvvjDx9qiNHSAIsLCSBOIKyBgUEezpIgRvkoGAWjYBSMSAAA2KZGtc4ofOIAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8857-6167","institution":"Paul Scherrer Institute","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jan","middleName":"","lastName":"Kren","suffix":""},{"id":623622649,"identity":"e5bab522-a050-46f7-824b-845305ef92ca","order_by":1,"name":"Bostjan Zajec","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"CEA Paris-Saclay","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Bostjan","middleName":"","lastName":"Zajec","suffix":""},{"id":623622650,"identity":"6b22d3c9-5b53-4883-87db-70b37bae5d4b","order_by":2,"name":"Iztok Tiselj","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, University of Ljubljana","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Iztok","middleName":"","lastName":"Tiselj","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-03-31 11:01:38","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9278776/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9278776/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":107480918,"identity":"d2139960-7755-4d4f-8669-f23fcc488a8d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-22 02:14:27","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":987496,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"CorrWindPaperNatCommSN.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9278776/v1_covered_d3216af6-24c9-4433-b51f-bdfb6c763668.pdf"},{"id":107063078,"identity":"1655d339-717b-4668-8c01-2667abc7d73f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-16 10:40:46","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":317705,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplementary Information","description":"","filename":"SupplementaryInformation.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9278776/v1/7d740e17c01c2f72e457bab3.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"The wind is always blowing somewhere in Europe: A decade of evidence for continental-scale renewable baseload","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"wind energy, geographic diversification, baseload power, correlation analysis, energy policy 1","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9278776/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9278776/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eWind power is intermittent at any single location—but it is always blowing somewhere across a continent. Here we test this premise using a decade of actual generation data from 29 European countries (2015–2024), the longest operational record analyzed to date. Unlike reanalysis-based studies, operational data capture curtailment, maintenance outages, and evolving fleet composition—effects invisible in simulated output. Aggregated European wind production never fell below 5.5 GW (1.8% of 2024 installed capacity), and geographic diversification reduced wind production variability by a stable ~48%. Yet Europe is failing to harness this potential. Although installed capacity doubled, the guaranteed baseload floor barely grew—a 2.1% conversion rate—because new capacity concentrated in already-correlated Northwestern Europe rather than in weakly correlated regions like Iberia and Scandinavia. Adding solar raises the floor by 61% and, more importantly, cuts battery storage costs by 81–93%. These findings identify geographic diversification as a highly effective but largely untapped reliability mechanism for wind energy. Yet even under optimal siting, the wind baseload floor remains at just 3–5% of installed capacity, covering only a small fraction of demand; a reliable zero-carbon grid requires wind alongside battery storage and firm clean generation.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"The wind is always blowing somewhere in Europe: A decade of evidence for continental-scale renewable baseload","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-04-16 10:38:40","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9278776/v1","editorialEvents":[],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-communications","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"NCOMMS","sideBox":"Learn more about [Nature Communications](http://www.nature.com/ncomms/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://mts-ncomms.nature.com/","title":"Nature Communications","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"Nature Communications","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"862bd087-52d2-41d9-96b4-ac154b323397","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 16th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":66370160,"name":"Scientific community and society/Energy and society/Energy supply and demand"},{"id":66370161,"name":"Scientific community and society/Energy and society/Energy policy"},{"id":66370162,"name":"Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Energy modelling"},{"id":66370163,"name":"Physical sciences/Engineering/Energy infrastructure/Energy grids and networks"},{"id":66370164,"name":"Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Renewable energy/Wind energy"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-04-16T10:38:40+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-04-16 10:38:40","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-9278776","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-9278776","identity":"rs-9278776","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}