Understanding complex energy-environment system investments with queuing enhanced large expert set-based decoded decision analytics

Understanding complex energy-environment system investments with queuing enhanced large expert set-based decoded decision analytics | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Understanding complex energy-environment system investments with queuing enhanced large expert set-based decoded decision analytics Hasan Dinçer, Serhat Yüksel, Edanur Ergün, Merve Acar, Serkan Eti This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8631953/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Complex energy environment system investments involve high levels of uncertainty, interdependent performance criteria, and subjective expert judgments, which make effective decision making a challenging task. The fundamental problem in this context is the lack of robust and integrated evaluation frameworks that can simultaneously handle expert bias, dynamic system behavior, and multidimensional performance assessment. Key aspects that should be analyzed include operational efficiency, system responsiveness, congestion effects, and the reliability of expert driven evaluations. Although the literature offers numerous multicriteria decision making approaches, it largely overlooks the decoding of latent uncertainty in expert assessments and the use of dynamic, system-oriented performance indicators. This study aims to address these gaps by proposing a novel and comprehensive decision-making model for prioritizing strategies that enhance the performance of complex energy environment system investments. The proposed model integrates Manhattan distance-based centrality for consensus expert selection, dynamical influence propagation with entropy optimization for criterion weighting, orthogonal metric robust aggregation for alternative ranking, and newly developed Cipher fuzzy sets to decode uncertainty and latent truth in expert evaluations. The main contribution of this study lies in the introduction of Cipher fuzzy sets and their integration into an advanced decision-making framework, offering improved robustness, interpretability, and stability compared to conventional approaches. The results indicate that queuing theory-based criteria, particularly utilization factor and queue length, play a critical role, while shared green infrastructure funding and urban waste energy efficiency partnerships emerge as priority strategies. These findings suggest that integrated, efficiency oriented, and resilience focused strategies should be emphasized in future energy environment system investments. Physical sciences/Engineering Physical sciences/Mathematics and computing Complex energy environment systems Cipher fuzzy sets Multicriteria decision making Queuing theory indicators Investment strategy prioritization Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8631953","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":592906729,"identity":"47099c74-ec2e-4d52-a13d-5655c69fb89f","order_by":0,"name":"Hasan Dinçer","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA5ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACA4bEBhAtB2IfYGCwANIJxGkxhmqRgGg5gFcLxEyQRgMGorSYsye3PfhRcS99bXvzxsMFFRIM/Ow5Bswf9+DWYtnzsN2w50xx7rYzxwoOzzgjwSDZ88aA4cAzPA67kdgmzdiWkLvtRo7BYd42CaBIDlALHpdBtPxLSDe7/waixZ44LQ0JCWY3eKC2SBDScuZhm2TPsQTDbWfSwH7hkTjzrODAGXxajqc/k/hRkyBvdvzw5s8FFTZy/O3JGx9U4NGCApiBmAfEIFYDRMsoGAWjYBSMAgwAAB8ZWXDplWgaAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Istanbul Medipol University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Hasan","middleName":"","lastName":"Dinçer","suffix":""},{"id":592906730,"identity":"b7658f3c-76ac-4edd-b153-f67fc2caf106","order_by":1,"name":"Serhat Yüksel","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Istanbul Medipol University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Serhat","middleName":"","lastName":"Yüksel","suffix":""},{"id":592906731,"identity":"1e6a4296-a40c-4ce6-88ba-dfe92e05617a","order_by":2,"name":"Edanur Ergün","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Istanbul Medipol University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Edanur","middleName":"","lastName":"Ergün","suffix":""},{"id":592906732,"identity":"5cfbd343-ee00-41b2-9e47-f61929b54beb","order_by":3,"name":"Merve Acar","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Istanbul Medipol University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Merve","middleName":"","lastName":"Acar","suffix":""},{"id":592906733,"identity":"dfc5a27b-866a-4c9b-ad62-3832aba7eabb","order_by":4,"name":"Serkan Eti","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Istanbul Medipol University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Serkan","middleName":"","lastName":"Eti","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-01-18 14:38:29","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8631953/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8631953/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":104329354,"identity":"b896f845-9dbc-4c71-b7b8-0451b9cd010a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-10 14:42:21","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":792470,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscriptESI.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8631953/v1_covered_da087ca4-39ca-4d4c-b105-37d72452e87f.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Understanding complex energy-environment system investments with queuing enhanced large expert set-based decoded decision analytics","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Complex energy environment systems, Cipher fuzzy sets, Multicriteria decision making, Queuing theory indicators, Investment strategy prioritization","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8631953/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8631953/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eComplex energy environment system investments involve high levels of uncertainty, interdependent performance criteria, and subjective expert judgments, which make effective decision making a challenging task. 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