Reduction in the Geometric Complexity of the Ground Observed Before the 2011 Mw 9 East Japan Earthquake through Data Mining Assisted by Cellular Automata.

Reduction in the Geometric Complexity of the Ground Observed Before the 2011 Mw 9 East Japan Earthquake through Data Mining Assisted by Cellular Automata. | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Reduction in the Geometric Complexity of the Ground Observed Before the 2011 Mw 9 East Japan Earthquake through Data Mining Assisted by Cellular Automata. Hiroyuki Kikuchi This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4392194/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract In our prior research on ground vibration fluctuations (GVF), we discovered precursory signals 1231 days before the Mw9 Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE) that occurred at 14:46 on March 11, 2011 (Japan Standard Time). The timing of these signals coincides with the changes in the thermodynamic state of the GVF. In this investigation, we employed the "data mining method" consisting of the two-step process that we previously proposed. Firstly, the presence of interesting signals is predicted by cellular automata (CA). Subsequently, these signals are searched for within the measured GVF data. The rationality of correlating the CA predictions with reality has been validated in our prior studies, which demonstrate that GVF detected near the epicenter of GEJE is thermodynamically equivalent to the CA. In this study, the "data mining method" was also applied. The CA predicted a decrease in the fractal dimension of geometric parameters at the timing of the precursory signals. Subsequently, the fractal dimension of the geometric parameters calculated for the measured GVF was evaluated, confirming that this fractal dimension indeed decreased near the precursory signals of GEJE. The decrease in the fractal dimension representing geometric complexity suggests the emergence of a uniform and monotonous geometric state, indicating the possibility of features such as large flat fault planes. In deriving the geometric properties of GVF from GVF as a function of time, we utilized the characteristic of the CA that "geometric information at a certain point in time can be derived from temporal information at a fixed location". megathrust earthquake cellular automaton thermodynamic fluctuation fractal dimension geometric complexity Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4392194","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":302870099,"identity":"615397b9-5943-441c-ac98-aef86b474db3","order_by":0,"name":"Hiroyuki Kikuchi","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABEElEQVRIie2QsUoDQRCGZwhsmonXjiD6CnccXBTk7lVyHJyNjxDk5GCrBNuAeZCUFxbOZmNewEIQrCxMZ6e7GgxC1qQU2a/ZH5aPmX8APJ4/SEhYm6ehgIQArBgOgL6+sNqhHI7WititQMcqEOpPBTaKiz6pOqbhw1Gs2/IRZ6ep7I7nJpxD53b7mLPxdV1Q+0zJQt6FqLmQdF+YUAJOm+2LLbFWvUpRsuxKRsmF4MvEBAU4GfyuxDcbpf+G8t2tLMxiVgl7srVKaqcAysat6HkdTVtFbOpzrnkgTBfOZUHOLvriiV+GKgtGZcKr2VUWmIu9rmR6HDku9hOzSV6tA0WTPQxL9p1OeE/F4/F4/jsfJAhbrsPzoxkAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Seismic Lab","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Hiroyuki","middleName":"","lastName":"Kikuchi","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-05-09 02:59:19","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4392194/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4392194/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":57955368,"identity":"c3cfb463-c7da-46c0-aefb-5d8489ca2a8e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-06-07 23:31:32","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":4922032,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"texKikuchi09may2024.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4392194/v1_covered_56f4da1b-241b-477c-9b15-339fef921c29.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Reduction in the Geometric Complexity of the Ground Observed Before the 2011 Mw 9 East Japan Earthquake through Data Mining Assisted by Cellular Automata.","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"megathrust earthquake, cellular automaton, thermodynamic fluctuation, fractal dimension, geometric complexity","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4392194/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4392194/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\nIn our prior research on ground vibration fluctuations (GVF), we discovered precursory signals 1231 days before the Mw9 Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE) that occurred at 14:46 on March 11, 2011 (Japan Standard Time). The timing of these signals coincides with the changes in the thermodynamic state of the GVF. In this investigation, we employed the \"data mining method\" consisting of the two-step process that we previously proposed. Firstly, the presence of interesting signals is predicted by cellular automata (CA). Subsequently, these signals are searched for within the measured GVF data. The rationality of correlating the CA predictions with reality has been validated in our prior studies, which demonstrate that GVF detected near the epicenter of GEJE is thermodynamically equivalent to the CA. In this study, the \"data mining method\" was also applied. The CA predicted a decrease in the fractal dimension of geometric parameters at the timing of the precursory signals. Subsequently, the fractal dimension of the geometric parameters calculated for the measured GVF was evaluated, confirming that this fractal dimension indeed decreased near the precursory signals of GEJE. The decrease in the fractal dimension representing geometric complexity suggests the emergence of a uniform and monotonous geometric state, indicating the possibility of features such as large flat fault planes. 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