Breeding priorities for rice adaptation to climate change in Northeast China

Abstract Breeding is an important adaptation strategy to sustain rice production in China. However, the breeding priorities for ideal adaptation to future climate stress remain unknown. Here, we established 15 scenarios representing the use of varieties with high-median-low levels of chilling sensitivity, heat sensitivity, and maturity-type properties based on 140 existing rice varieties, and assessed the effectiveness of these scenarios for climate change adaptation in Northeast China. Results showed that the average yield of low-chilling-sensitivity varieties will decline by 10.8-47.5% in the 2100s, depending on shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). If the increase in warming is greater than 1.7°C, low-heat-sensitivity varieties show higher yields than low-chilling-sensitivity ones, but the average yield will decline by 10.4-33.5% in the 2100s than that under baseline climate. Comparably, the contribution of varieties with an extended whole growth duration was at least 5 times greater than that of low-sensitivity varieties, resulting in a 50% yield increase relative to that at the baseline climate. Our study suggests that late-maturing varieties have considerable breeding potential relative to the varieties with low sensitivity to cold and heat stresses, and late maturity is thus recommended as the primary breeding target for adaptation to climate change in Northeast China.