Inverse Coefficient Problem for Epidemiological Mean Field Formulation

The paper proposes an approach to solving the inverse epidemiological problem, written in terms of the “mean field” theory. Finding the coefficients of the epidemiological SIR mean field model is reduced to solving an optimization problem, for the solution of which only zero-order methods can be used. The Nelder-Mead method was chosen as such a method. The algorithm for solution of the inverse coefficient problem is proposed. Computational experiments were carried out to compare the obtained solutions with respect to synthetic and real data. The results of computational experiments have shown the efficiency of this approach. Ways to further improve the approach have also been determined.