Past and Projected Climate Impacts on Human Development

Past and Projected Climate Impacts on Human Development | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Past and Projected Climate Impacts on Human Development Massimo Tavoni, Marta Mastropietro, Jonathan Spinoni This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6923904/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Climate change is characterized by an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme events and a rise in the mean temperature. These phenomena threaten economic systems and broader dimensions of human well-being, including health and education. So far, most empirical studies and future projections have focused on the economic impacts of climate change, recently adding climate extremes. Here, we quantify the subnational effects of climate change on the Human Development Index (HDI) and its components: life expectancy, expected years of schooling, and gross national income per capita. We examine immediate and lagged responses to meteorological variations, particularly rainfall and heat extremes. Finally, we apply the derived impact functions to project climate-driven damages on future HDI under different socio-economic, impact and climatic trajectories. We find diversified, significantly adverse effects of climate change on human development, with virtually every region facing developmental risks due to climate change Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change impacts/Environmental health Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Sustainability Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Environmental impact Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact Climate Change Climate Extremes Climate Hazards Impacts Human Development Index Subnational Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6923904","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":486979388,"identity":"404d5d72-ddb0-4bd3-8c2e-ec168640d2ab","order_by":0,"name":"Massimo Tavoni","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA70lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYLCCBDjLwIaBjWgtPBAtaURqYYBrYThMWKVu+/HHHx7m2DDYs58xfFxQcF6Oj735AMPHPbU4tZidyTGTSNyWxsDDk2NsPMPgtjEbz7EExhnPjuPWciCHjSFx22Ggw9LSpHkMbie2SeQYMPMcOIZby/nnjz+AtfA/A2k5V98m//4Dfi03EgwkwFokko8BtRxIYJPgYQBqqcGj5Q3YLzw8Nx4fNuYxSDZs40kzODjjwAE8Dkt//PHnNhs59v7Exsc8f+zk5dsPP3zw4UAdTi0wwIPCO0BUBKEDwraMglEwCkbBiAEALR5RPLjTh90AAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5069-4707","institution":"Politecnico di Milano and RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Massimo","middleName":"","lastName":"Tavoni","suffix":""},{"id":486979389,"identity":"395deb08-6c92-4eee-805f-07680a7ef99b","order_by":1,"name":"Marta Mastropietro","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Politecnico di Milano","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Marta","middleName":"","lastName":"Mastropietro","suffix":""},{"id":486979390,"identity":"3675a598-4a44-4209-922d-a5f87a712026","order_by":2,"name":"Jonathan Spinoni","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"CMCC","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jonathan","middleName":"","lastName":"Spinoni","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-06-18 14:21:00","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6923904/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6923904/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":94525762,"identity":"bded2f90-ea74-4ad5-b81b-520ea87bf1db","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-28 17:02:48","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":26343945,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"manuscriptXappendix.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6923904/v1_covered_39a92ff2-bd9b-487f-8722-5658f3702cbb.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Past and Projected Climate Impacts on Human Development","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Climate Change, Climate Extremes, Climate Hazards, Impacts, Human Development Index, Subnational","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6923904/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6923904/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Climate change is characterized by an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme events and a rise in the mean temperature. 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