Locational Drivers of Non-Cultivated Land Use in Heterogeneous Topographies: A Case Study of Sichuan Basin, China

Food security remains a pressing concern for nations worldwide. A significant challenge arises from the non-cultivated use (NCU) of previously cultivated land, potentially reducing food production capacity. This study investigates the driving forces behind NCU in China’s Sichuan Basin, a crucial agricultural zone. A sliding window method was employed to extract the NCU patches between 1991-2018, furthermore, the driving effects and pattern of NCU was explored by conducting multi-scale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model across different regions. Our research reveals a critical finding: (1) The cumulative NCU area in the Sichuan Basin grew continuously from 1991 to 2018, with a notable net increase after 2005, peaking in 2015 before declining. This phenomenon expanded from peripheral mountainous areas to the basin interior and from urban centers to outskirts, showing a recent leapfrog-like aggregation trend. (2) The Heterogeneous impacts of locational factors across different regions were revealed: in mountainous areas, improvements in transportation and market accessibility would slow down NCU, whereas in plain areas, the opposite would be true. These findings highlight the need for differentiated policy measures to address NCU effectively, including increasing infrastructure investment and market capacity in mountainous areas to reduce transportation costs and incentivize land protection, while providing grain subsidies, technical support, and farm machinery rentals in plain areas to encourage sustainable land use and organizing the uniform planting of advantageous crops like fruits and tea to increase efficiency. By elucidating the spatial heterogeneity of NCU drivers, this study provides valuable insights for policymakers aiming to optimize land-use strategies and ensure long-term food security.