Dynamic Prospective Average and Marginal Impact Factors from a Scenario-Based Method for the German Power System until 2070

Abstract Background: Rising greenhouse gas concentrations, primarily carbon dioxide, are raising global temperatures. Germany aims to reduce emissions by 95 \% by 2045 compared to 1990 under the Climate Change Act 2021. This paper introduces two methodologies to determine hourly German electricity system values for this decarbonization period: crucial for life cycle assessment (LCA) and carbon accounting (CA). It examines methodologies, including a new electricity impact calculation model which accounts for storage construction's environmental impact. Methods: To achieve the study's objectives, an electricity dataset with hourly resolution will be explained. Subsequently, the two methodologies will be elucidated and applied to this dataset for multiple LCA impact categories. Results: According to the results, the new model, which considers the emissions from storage construction, produces higher emissions than the existing model. This increase is more pronounced in future scenarios where storages have a higher share of electricity and during hours when storage discharge is high. This trend is observed for most of the considered LCA impacts. The newly calculated emissions match the literature values. Conclusions: Based on the analysis, the obtained outcomes can be inferred to be reasonable. Moreover, comparing the two electricity impact models revealed significant variations in the results as the electric grid storage capacity increased. Therefore, the newly proposed model is beneficial in scenarios with high storage system capacity.