Statistical analysis of extreme temperatures in India in the period 1951–2020

Abstract Extreme temperatures are directly related to the occurrence of atmospheric extreme events, such as draughts, wildfires, and pollution level increases in urban areas. Policy makers, as well as society, can address such phenomenon by developing and applying methods which estimate and anticipate maximum temperature occurrences. In this research we aim to develop a spatiotemporal model which analyzes maximum temperature trends values in the Indian 543 microregions between 1951 and 2020. In 27% of those, a maximum temperature above 45°C was observed, at least in a year, with the results of the analysis testifying that 80% of the microregions have an median yearly maximum temperature above 40°C. Additionally, the results unveiled that East, Southwest and Northwest microregions were the ones where the maximum temperatures had a higher increase with 2°C being the average. The model developed is based on a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) methodology, to estimate the maximum temperature values from 20 to 50 years. The projection for 20 years showed that in 16% of those microregions at least one occurrence of a maximum temperature above 45°C would occur; while in the 50 years one it would happen in 22% of the microregions analyzed.