Housing Regulation Spillovers: Buy-Rent Substitution and Spatial Multipliers in Urban China

Housing Regulation Spillovers: Buy-Rent Substitution and Spatial Multipliers in Urban China | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Housing Regulation Spillovers: Buy-Rent Substitution and Spatial Multipliers in Urban China Bo Gong, Jun Cang This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7986120/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Real estate regulations in urban China generate spatial spillovers on rental markets, yet their mechanisms remain underexplored. This study analyses panel data from 83 cities over 2010–2020 using a dynamic spatial Durbin model with Lee–Yu transformation, revealing that relaxation of transaction regulations elevates local rents by 0.022 and neighbouring rents by 0.023, with a total effect of 0.046 amplified spatiotemporally through housing-price capitalisation, wage shifts and digital attention. Findings highlight regional heterogeneity and policy-tool differences.These advocate cross-city coordination to mitigate externalities and inform equitable housing governance. Social science/Geography Social science/Economics Social science/Sociology Housing Policy Regulation Rental Market Dynamics Spatial Spillovers Regional Heterogeneity Institution-Market Interaction Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7986120","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":539704513,"identity":"1a57d7ea-15a8-45a8-9ed9-c6bb12532c5f","order_by":0,"name":"Bo Gong","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA4ElEQVRIie2RsQ6CMBCG25DA0shaEgOv0MRRN1+kjYksaExcGBggmDIYdfUxGB1LSJjK7giP4OZomTUWN4d+0w335e6/A8Bg+ENs59IJGi98N+izjsaJXpkgCUUn1zMvXeWkk41e8XFkVT2vGREh9/qDNWIx1ApBZU29tOIxS23gFkeqyXKmKku4dWHG7+w2BVi2pWaKIGrKfO/lUCnSBgRvNAqmRDBusbKBfKeKMUo0KEtWSsjBOAU1Kstw5CvMMZUN0mYJirx+PIdXYqdXReK7xem78gb6rd1gMBgMH3kB0k1T3hs0/BoAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0007-2962-0704","institution":"Shanghai Institute of Tourism","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Bo","middleName":"","lastName":"Gong","suffix":""},{"id":539704514,"identity":"5fdfad5a-287f-424c-9c66-c3d21f4e5676","order_by":1,"name":"Jun Cang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Shanghai Institute of Tourism","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jun","middleName":"","lastName":"Cang","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-10-30 07:14:15","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7986120/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7986120/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":96876047,"identity":"2c540877-2988-4fc0-9fde-b5dac76171ea","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-27 05:28:48","extension":"docx","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":228201,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"naturecitiesHousingRegulationSpillovers1013.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7986120/v1/ba60b0e6f8a30a760acfbcb6.docx"},{"id":96876044,"identity":"5cc0da66-611f-4d27-b1d8-5dc87c0ef8b7","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-27 05:28:48","extension":"json","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":342,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"rs7986120.json","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7986120/v1/3d665fe0046ab4b09f263a94.json"},{"id":96919420,"identity":"1224f97b-0897-4f7a-813d-bf22757c3436","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-27 14:13:52","extension":"xml","order_by":2,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":523896,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"rs79861202enriched.xml","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7986120/v1/dcccfd4ff537e186285f1866.xml"},{"id":96876042,"identity":"3ebf7fac-7e76-4ce6-b221-247605c8dead","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-27 05:28:48","extension":"jpeg","order_by":3,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":805,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage1.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7986120/v1/3536a294136bea5c380afcb6.jpeg"},{"id":96919025,"identity":"193b78dc-e9ff-483c-b62b-211385ce2356","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-27 14:13:01","extension":"jpeg","order_by":4,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":1195,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage2.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7986120/v1/d8d80b952d634d967dec2396.jpeg"},{"id":96876045,"identity":"02c324fb-d9d0-43d4-97ed-3af4ed674493","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-27 05:28:48","extension":"jpeg","order_by":5,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":1197,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage3.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7986120/v1/e44beec66ea3ebab5a108ed4.jpeg"},{"id":96918728,"identity":"7485a9aa-773c-420c-ae59-a622849d89ab","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-27 14:12:26","extension":"jpeg","order_by":6,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":1195,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage2.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7986120/v1/68d995e9232f4f2848653bb6.jpeg"},{"id":96876058,"identity":"6f9a329d-72ae-49bd-b7d7-1fcebe999eb3","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-27 05:28:48","extension":"jpeg","order_by":7,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":1195,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage2.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7986120/v1/07e291adff1a77559b931c3c.jpeg"},{"id":96876055,"identity":"07c17acb-24e7-45b1-8523-e089e90fd467","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-27 05:28:48","extension":"jpeg","order_by":8,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":805,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage1.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7986120/v1/1b91cf712ee81b9c2b57d3aa.jpeg"},{"id":96919106,"identity":"91f0f187-bde9-4ec9-b797-93e0c545c12b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-27 14:13:09","extension":"jpeg","order_by":9,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":1195,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage2.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7986120/v1/5f009fea423a1a2aad8a34f3.jpeg"},{"id":96919855,"identity":"f96fe5b9-f931-4c90-8a1e-17b5189e9f15","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-27 14:14:33","extension":"png","order_by":10,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":450,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7986120/v1/5fb25bda7ffefe7ca9e503a4.png"},{"id":96920409,"identity":"b08f7efb-87f7-4e1a-8780-439883da3aea","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-27 14:15:08","extension":"png","order_by":11,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":522,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7986120/v1/157210f74cde4b52d12c5063.png"},{"id":96876050,"identity":"0d413634-fa4a-4ab1-b67b-67695f37e102","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-27 05:28:48","extension":"png","order_by":12,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":531,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7986120/v1/df5c57e71d10ee463f4908fb.png"},{"id":96919619,"identity":"a1d05207-dbd0-411b-b336-66a75e2d2c1d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-27 14:14:13","extension":"png","order_by":13,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":522,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7986120/v1/d7f94b2211a84ad7680dde03.png"},{"id":96876051,"identity":"b03890a6-2ad0-42fd-b273-75851194d460","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-27 05:28:48","extension":"png","order_by":14,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":522,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7986120/v1/bc1849fa8aa90704eab6b5d5.png"},{"id":96920326,"identity":"1042728d-bf7b-4d92-a8d8-794800bd35e1","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-27 14:15:03","extension":"png","order_by":15,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":450,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7986120/v1/cb9d4180718cd6e0a24e1a35.png"},{"id":96918783,"identity":"bcbcd573-8d0c-4697-b899-0751e37147a1","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-27 14:12:35","extension":"png","order_by":16,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":522,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7986120/v1/6221a7bb3d01934c773f7abb.png"},{"id":96876060,"identity":"662cce43-7f00-4cfc-b972-543081a2e3db","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-27 05:28:48","extension":"xml","order_by":17,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":520816,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"rs79861202structuring.xml","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7986120/v1/6f3387e43c356c42ec9d37f9.xml"},{"id":96876059,"identity":"6e207a78-ae16-4c7e-ba19-3dfff07aa2e6","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-27 05:28:48","extension":"html","order_by":18,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":514471,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"earlyproof.html","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7986120/v1/2dd8715cd43d0ef90536253e.html"},{"id":96923194,"identity":"e16ea9fc-6ae1-458c-a2a8-a87e83191c21","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-27 14:21:07","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":618780,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"naturecitiesHousingRegulationSpillovers1013.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7986120/v1_covered_4a73e575-350a-4068-b397-7e1d61c9fc20.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Housing Regulation Spillovers: Buy-Rent Substitution and Spatial Multipliers in Urban China","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Housing Policy Regulation, Rental Market Dynamics, Spatial Spillovers, Regional Heterogeneity, Institution-Market Interaction","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7986120/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7986120/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Real estate regulations in urban China generate spatial spillovers on rental markets, yet their mechanisms remain underexplored. This study analyses panel data from 83 cities over 2010–2020 using a dynamic spatial Durbin model with Lee–Yu transformation, revealing that relaxation of transaction regulations elevates local rents by 0.022 and neighbouring rents by 0.023, with a total effect of 0.046 amplified spatiotemporally through housing-price capitalisation, wage shifts and digital attention. Findings highlight regional heterogeneity and policy-tool differences.These advocate cross-city coordination to mitigate externalities and inform equitable housing governance.","manuscriptTitle":"Housing Regulation Spillovers: Buy-Rent Substitution and Spatial Multipliers in Urban China","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-11-27 05:28:44","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7986120/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"b65d473b-ab4b-4929-a387-a12f6af49f1a","owner":[],"postedDate":"November 27th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":57399524,"name":"Social science/Geography"},{"id":57399525,"name":"Social science/Economics"},{"id":57399526,"name":"Social science/Sociology"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-11-27T05:28:44+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-11-27 05:28:44","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7986120","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7986120","identity":"rs-7986120","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}