Spatiotemporal variability of extreme precipitation in East of northwest China and associated large-scale circulation factors

Abstract Spatial and temporal distributions and influencing factors of extreme precipitation are important bases for coping with future climate change. The spatiotemporal variability and affecting factors of extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) in East of northwest China (ENW) during 1961–2015 were investigated using a series of approaches such as modified Mann-Kendall trend test, Hurst exponent, Ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), and geodetector model. The results showed that CDD and CWD decreased significantly (P < 0.01), with rates of 1.4 days/decade and 0.07 days/decade, respectively. EPIs in ENW exhibited an obvious heterogeneity. CDD gradually increased from the southeast to the northwest. The remaining EPIs generally showed the opposite trend. Some stations in ENW may experience more extreme precipitation events in the future. Geodetector results demonstrated that large-scale circulation factors had a significant impact on EPIs in ENW. The influence of large-scale climate factors on EPIs was concentrated in nonlinear enhancement, and Nino3.4 and SO were the dominant driving factors that played a major role in the variability of EPIs. The results of this study provided a reference for ENW and other arid and semi-arid regions to cope with extreme climates and develop corresponding strategies.