Determining the predictors of short duration of marriage to divorce

Determining the predictors of short duration of marriage to divorce | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Determining the predictors of short duration of marriage to divorce Tshaudi Motsima This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5889045/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Generically, couples marry with the intention of staying together for as long as they both live, but some couples divorce before the end of the time span of this commitment. Divorce has negative consequences that can cause strains that may persist over a long time for the divorced couples and minor children from the marriage. This study investigated the predictors of short duration of marriage to divorce in South Africa. This study used the marriage and divorce data for divorce cases whose divorce decrees were granted in 2022. These data were representative of the entire country and were consolidated by Statistics South Africa. The Weibull Accelerated Failure Time model was used to determine the predictors of short duration of marriage to divorce. It was found that the number of children in the marriage, Black/African couples, customary marriage, and civil-union couples, husbands, and wives who were widowed or divorced at the beginning of their recent respective marriages had statistically significantly shorter durations of marriage to divorce than their respective counterparts. Black/African couples should seek advice from the elders of both the husband’s and wife’s families when they have marital disputes before considering professional help from therapists and psychologists. Therapists and marriage counsellors should use the findings of this study to help them to design intervention programmes and counselling strategies tailored to the specific risk factors contributing to divorce. Regarding customary marriage, the elders should not enforce arranged marriages to their children. Marriage Divorce Black/African couples Professional jobs Customary marriage Accelerated failure time model Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5889045","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":412444698,"identity":"ede3d190-b5ef-457a-a4cb-360f7b720e88","order_by":0,"name":"Tshaudi Motsima","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA1ElEQVRIie3OMQrCMBTG8VcKmR50jYu9QqVQcalXaQk4uTgrVBHqUuzqMZwyBwLt0gN0s+IF6iK4iKm4OEjq5pD/kOn9+AJgMv1hnlBPBJDkvclE2C+CgxSsdS8y7YgKvaIvCcpctud5iP4pGzewCsHdCQ2pJKExZxgUOFpDwcDKIg2pGYGY229CBNigIV7N7DbmCfppRx4CiNNoCaiPSfSIIlYqAKlupZKBIiXSYrY4xHuGlOpWys3leudLdLby2La3cOjmmpXP1DH+cm8ymUymLz0B5LxBA6qlz04AAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Tshwane University of Technology","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Tshaudi","middleName":"","lastName":"Motsima","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-01-23 14:23:25","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5889045/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5889045/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":82275487,"identity":"12ff2a11-aca1-4c9e-9270-030cf7c56042","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-05-08 14:38:31","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":335353,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Durationofmarriagetodivorce.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5889045/v1_covered_a1ce49b5-1676-4bbd-bcd5-edb9791f5d04.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Determining the predictors of short duration of marriage to divorce","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Marriage, Divorce, Black/African couples, Professional jobs, Customary marriage, Accelerated failure time model","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5889045/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5889045/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eGenerically, couples marry with the intention of staying together for as long as they both live, but some couples divorce before the end of the time span of this commitment. Divorce has negative consequences that can cause strains that may persist over a long time for the divorced couples and minor children from the marriage. This study investigated the predictors of short duration of marriage to divorce in South Africa. This study used the marriage and divorce data for divorce cases whose divorce decrees were granted in 2022. These data were representative of the entire country and were consolidated by Statistics South Africa. The Weibull Accelerated Failure Time model was used to determine the predictors of short duration of marriage to divorce. It was found that the number of children in the marriage, Black/African couples, customary marriage, and civil-union couples, husbands, and wives who were widowed or divorced at the beginning of their recent respective marriages had statistically significantly shorter durations of marriage to divorce than their respective counterparts. 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