The Dynamics of Crime Investigation

The Dynamics of Crime Investigation | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article The Dynamics of Crime Investigation Olugbemiga Osinuga, Elliott Kerry, Jack Sutton, Quentin S. Hanley This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7572872/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Considerable efforts have been made to explore ways to prevent crime by studying how and where it arises. Much less is known about what happens after a crime has been reported. Here, we analysed a cohort of crimes from an outcome database released monthly by the UK Home Office. The data documents the disposition of a crime report through a range of outcomes beginning with “under investigation” and converting to other outcomes (e.g. “unable to prosecute”) over a 39-month period. We found that the reduction in the number of “under investigation” reports and the appearance of new designations follow either a one- or two-component exponential decay process. The rates of decay vary by police force, crime type, and new outcome designation. Crimes like bicycle theft (0.472 month -1 ) and vehicle crime (0.478 month -1 ) tend to be resolved quickly while investigation of violence and sexual offences proceed more slowly (0.207 month -1 ). The crime type consisting of violence and sexual offences shows low variability across the 42 forces investigated indicating a more standardized approach to these crimes. When looking at the rate processes, the different rates are not competing to act on all crimes together. Rather, there are different pools of crimes and outcomes which are acted upon separately. Metrics obtained from the dynamic process of investigating crimes provide unprecedented insight into policing once a crime report is made. Crime Outcomes Crime Resolution Police Force Evaluation Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7572872","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":512447332,"identity":"46728a4c-7ff0-4e40-8029-88b6b5474271","order_by":0,"name":"Olugbemiga Osinuga","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Derby","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Olugbemiga","middleName":"","lastName":"Osinuga","suffix":""},{"id":512447333,"identity":"fc4851c4-089b-45a7-bde3-90ea4caf71b1","order_by":1,"name":"Elliott Kerry","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Derby","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Elliott","middleName":"","lastName":"Kerry","suffix":""},{"id":512447334,"identity":"1e17bad7-e8d7-4fb3-b3d6-0814812f8c52","order_by":2,"name":"Jack Sutton","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA3klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACxgYog58hgYEZymbGoRhJy4EEBgbJBmK1gAFIi8EBYrUwN7A/k/74wybP+Hjysc+FbQzy/A08xgb4HcZjJnEgIa3Y7Myz5Nkz2xgMZxzgMU4goIUNqOVw4rYbOcbMvG0MjBsYeIwP4NfC/gysZfOM/M8gLfZEaGEwA2vZIJHDDNKSCNKC32HNPMYWZ9LSEmeceWbMPOOcRPKMw2zFeL1v2N7+8EaFjU1if3vyY+aCMhvb/vbmzRJ4tTSj2MkmQTgi5VG5fwgoHwWjYBSMghEJAAcuRPiMRIidAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7635-6578","institution":"University of Derby","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jack","middleName":"","lastName":"Sutton","suffix":""},{"id":512447335,"identity":"6449e83d-dba8-46c0-be84-693373f8d9eb","order_by":3,"name":"Quentin S. 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