The Resilience Trap: Non-linear Hydraulic Failure and Flood Peak Coincidence in Green-Grey Infrastructure under Extreme Rainfall | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article The Resilience Trap: Non-linear Hydraulic Failure and Flood Peak Coincidence in Green-Grey Infrastructure under Extreme Rainfall Dong Wang, Kejian Shang This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8334524/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Low Impact Development (LID) excels in handling frequent storms but often fails hydraulically under extreme rainfall. This study isolates the non-linear interactions between spatial layout and flow regimes using a generalized SWMM model. We identified a critical regime shift from gravity to surcharged pressure flow during 10-year events. We specifically identified a "Resilience Trap" emerged under 20-year conditions: low-coverage (10%) LID did not attenuate flow but amplified it. The delayed runoff released by LID synchronized with the upstream flood peak, causing a "peak coincidence" that increased outlet discharge by 2.6%. This finding overturns the assumption of monotonic LID benefits. It proves that without hydraulic coordination, improperly placed LID actively degrades system resilience by disrupting runoff phasing. Low Impact Development (LID) Extreme Rainfall Hydraulic Choking Peak Coincidence Virtual City Model Green-Grey Infrastructure Full Text Additional Declarations Ethical approval Not applicable. Consent to participate Not applicable. Consent to publish All authors have read this manuscript and consent for publication in Water Resources Management. Authors contributions Dong Wang contributed to the study conception and design, performed the SWMM simulations, analyzed the data, and wrote the first draft of the manuscript. Kejian Shang supervised the project, provided critical feedback on the hydraulic analysis, and revised the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript. Funding No funding was received to assist with the preparation of this manuscript. Competing interests The authors declare no competing interests. Availability of data and materials The datasets used or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request. Supplementary Files Highlights.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 10 Jan, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 09 Jan, 2026 Editor invited by journal 31 Dec, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 11 Dec, 2025 First submitted to journal 11 Dec, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. 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