Modeling Infectious Disease Dynamics on Cruise Ships:An Enhanced SIR Framework with Risk Index Assessment

Modeling Infectious Disease Dynamics on Cruise Ships:An Enhanced SIR Framework with Risk Index Assessment | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Modeling Infectious Disease Dynamics on Cruise Ships:An Enhanced SIR Framework with Risk Index Assessment Ahmed Abdelrazec This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8747573/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted 13 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Cruise ships, with their dense populations and constant passenger movement, presenthighly dynamic conditions for the spread of infectious diseases. Although strict healthprotocols and monitoring systems are widely implemented, their operational effectiveness often varies. In this study, we develop and analyze an improved Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model using early outbreak data to characterize epidemicdynamics in cruise-ship environments. The proposed framework extends the classicalSIR model by incorporating ship-specific factors such as time-dependent transmissionrates and confined-space contact structures. Building on this formulation, we introduce a new infection-risk index that quantifies the likelihood of disease transmissionand serves as an early indicator of outbreak severity. To evaluate the model’s predictive performance and epidemiological relevance, we apply it to empirical data from theMS Voyager COVID-19 outbreak (2021) and an influenza outbreak (2014). Numericalsimulations demonstrate that the enhanced model provides more accurate short-termforecasts and facilitates the identification of effective intervention strategies. These results highlight the value of SIR-based modeling approaches for assessing and mitigatingepidemic risks in closed, mobile populations such as cruise ships. SIR model infection risk index risk assessment infectious diseases cruise ships Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 13 May, 2026 Reviews received at journal 09 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 29 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 15 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 11 Mar, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 09 Mar, 2026 Reviews received at journal 21 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 20 Feb, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 20 Feb, 2026 Editor invited by journal 19 Feb, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 02 Feb, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 02 Feb, 2026 First submitted to journal 31 Jan, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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