Environmental suitability for Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) whitmani (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae) and the occurrence of American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Brazil

Leishmaniasis represents an important public health problem in Brazil. The continuous process of urbanization and expansion of human activities in forest areas impacts natural habitats, modifying the ecology of some species of Leishmania , as well as its vectors and reservoirs and, consequently, changes the epidemiological pattern and contribute to the expansion of American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (ACL) in Brazil. In epidemiology of ACL, we highlight Lutzomyia ( Nyssomyia ) whitmani , the main vector of ACL, transmitting two dermotropic Leishmania spp.: Leishmania ( Viannia ) braziliensis and Leishmania ( Viannia ) shawi . We used the maximum entropy niche modeling approach (MAXENT) to evaluate the environmental suitability of L. (N.) whitmani and the transmission of ACL in Brazil, in addition to designing models for a future scenario of climate change. MAXENT was used under the "auto-features" mode and the default settings, with 100-fold repetition (bootstrap). The logistic output was used with higher values in the Habitat Suitability Map, representing more favorable conditions for the occurrence of L. ( N. ) whitmani and human cases of ACL. Two models were developed: Lutzomyia whitmani model (LWM) and American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis model (ACLM). LWM identified that the species "prefers" (more appropriate habitat) regions with moderate Annual Precipitation (AP), between 1,000 - 1,600 mm, intermediate vegetation density (NDVI) values, Mean Temperature of The Coldest Quarter (MTCQ), between 15°C - 21°C, and Annual Mean Temperature (AMT), between 19°C - 24°C. ACLM indicates that ACL is strongly associated with areas of intermediate density vegetation, areas with Annual Precipitation (AP) between 800 and 1200 mm, MTCQ above 16 ° C and AMT below 23°C. The results obtained in this study are discussed in terms of epidemiology and surveillance of ACL in future scenarios in Brazil.