Incomplete recovery to enhance economic growth losses from US hurricanes under global warming

Incomplete recovery to enhance economic growth losses from US hurricanes under global warming | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Incomplete recovery to enhance economic growth losses from US hurricanes under global warming Christian Otto, Kilian Kuhla, Tobias Geiger, Jacob Schewe, Katja Frieler This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-654258/v2 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Abstract Ongoing global warming is likely to increase the return frequency of very intense hurricanes in the North Atlantic. Here, we analyse how this frequency increase may impact on economic growth. To this end, we introduce an event-based macroeconomic growth model that temporally resolves how growth depends on the heterogeneity in timing and intensity of hurricane impacts. We calibrate the model to the United States and find that economic growth losses scale super-linearly with their heterogeneity. We explain this by a disproportional increase of indirect losses with event severity which can lead to an incomplete recovery of the economy between consecutive intense landfall events. Based on two different methods to estimate the future frequency increase of intense hurricanes compared to the period 1980-2014, we estimate annual growth losses to increase between 10% and 146% in a Paris-compatible 2°C world and even up to 522% in a 2.7°C world in compliance with the median end-of-century warming under currently implemented or enacted policies. We finally study the efficacy of disaster insurance as an adaptation strategy and find that higher insurance coverage may higher insurance coverage may be a viable means to mitigate these climate change-induced increases in growth losses. Environmental Engineering Environmental Policy Climatology Climate Analysis and Modeling economic growth losses hurricanes disaster insurance global warming economic recovery Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-654258","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":39020032,"identity":"65072d46-6211-4087-b3f1-c2551f9e1daf","order_by":0,"name":"Christian 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