Local Drivers in Accelerating North American Heat Stress

Local Drivers in Accelerating North American Heat Stress | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Physical Sciences - Article Local Drivers in Accelerating North American Heat Stress Andreas Prein, Qinqin Kong, Gabriele Villarini, James Done, David Johnson, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6225663/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Climate change increases the frequency and intensity of heat extremes, threatening human health and economies1–4. We use reanalysis data and regional climate simulations with a 4- km grid5 to calculate the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT)6, a key index for assessing heat stress7, 8. Our analysis shows that historical climate change has increased population exposure to extreme heat (WBGT >32,◦ 17 C) by 21% across the Contiguous United States. However, as global warming reaches 2,◦C, exposure surges by 273% due to the exponential rise in heat stress frequency with temperature. Annual maximum WBGT increases fastest in high-latitude areas, while BFH frequency increases most in humid subtropical regions like 1the Gulf Coast and the Caribbean. In northern regions, heatwave frequency increases with warming while in southern regions individual events merge into mega-heatwaves lasting over a month under 2 ◦C warming. Drivers of WBGT changes differ by region, with temperature and longwave radiation dominating maintain and high-latitude land areas. Humidity plays a crucial role in humid subtropical regions, while decreasing wind speeds impact the Midwest and Northeast. These regional differences highlight the need for tailored adaptation strate gies. Our findings stress the urgent need for mitigation and adaptation strategies to protect vulnerable populations from rising heat-related risks9–12. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate and Earth system modelling Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SupplementPreinetalWBGTclimatechange.pdf Supplementary material: Local Drivers in Accelerating North American Heat Stress Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6225663","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Physical Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":436450360,"identity":"68676acd-49db-4525-abf9-bf435c9072da","order_by":0,"name":"Andreas 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We use reanalysis data and regional climate simulations with a 4- km grid5 to calculate the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT)6, a key index for assessing heat stress7, 8. Our analysis shows that historical climate change has increased population exposure to extreme heat (WBGT \u0026gt;32,◦ 17 C) by 21% across the Contiguous United States. However, as global warming reaches 2,◦C, exposure surges by 273% due to the exponential rise in heat stress frequency with temperature. Annual maximum WBGT increases fastest in high-latitude areas, while BFH frequency increases most in humid subtropical regions like 1the Gulf Coast and the Caribbean. In northern regions, heatwave frequency increases with warming while in southern regions individual events merge into mega-heatwaves lasting over a month under 2 ◦C warming. Drivers of WBGT changes differ by region, with temperature and longwave radiation dominating maintain and high-latitude land areas. 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