Infection risk assessment of flower yellowing disease in Zanthoxylum armatum DC. under projected climate change in Southwest China

Infection risk assessment of flower yellowing disease in Zanthoxylum armatum DC. under projected climate change in Southwest China | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Infection risk assessment of flower yellowing disease in Zanthoxylum armatum DC. under projected climate change in Southwest China Hongxia Liu, Xue Song, Jingwen Xu, Chaobin Zhou, Weihong Sun This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9373671/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 4 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Research on the infection risk of Flower yellowing disease (FYD) is crucial for promoting the sustainable cultivation of Zanthoxylum armatum DC. This study aimed to assess the potential distribution of FYD under current (1970–2000) and future (2041–2060 and 2061–2080) climate conditions across four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585). A total of 80 occurrence records of FYD associated with Z. armatum were collected from Southwest China, together with 19 bioclimatic variables, one elevation variable, and eight edaphic variables. The MaxEnt model, optimized using the ENMeval package, was applied to predict the potential distribution of FYD. The results showed that all optimized models achieved a ΔAICc value of 0 and AUC values exceeding 0.90, indicating excellent predictive performance. Precipitation of the driest month (Bio_14), annual temperature range (Bio_7), precipitation seasonality (Bio_15), and elevation were identified as the dominant environmental factors influencing the potential distribution of FYD. Compared with the current period, future climate change is projected to markedly expand the area of high-suitability habitats for FYD, with major expansion concentrated in eastern Yunnan, southern Guizhou, and northern Sichuan. These findings suggest that enhanced field surveys, long-term monitoring, and targeted prevention strategies should be prioritized in projected expansion areas to reduce the potential risks of FYD to Z. armatum cultivation. Flower yellowing disease Potential distribution Southwest of China MaxEnt model Climate change Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers invited by journal 13 Apr, 2026 Editor invited by journal 13 Apr, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 10 Apr, 2026 First submitted to journal 09 Apr, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9373671","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":622099538,"identity":"aec0996a-f147-45e1-9fbf-b2f05f188514","order_by":0,"name":"Hongxia Liu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Zunyi Normal College","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Hongxia","middleName":"","lastName":"Liu","suffix":""},{"id":622099539,"identity":"dfebec57-a690-45bd-80f9-2d8c13ff0bbf","order_by":1,"name":"Xue Song","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Zunyi Normal College","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xue","middleName":"","lastName":"Song","suffix":""},{"id":622099540,"identity":"7a34dd5c-a418-4ba9-b88b-650b5469e013","order_by":2,"name":"Jingwen Xu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Zunyi Normal College","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jingwen","middleName":"","lastName":"Xu","suffix":""},{"id":622099544,"identity":"03dd682a-e8de-4616-8daa-f6d0278fd5fc","order_by":3,"name":"Chaobin Zhou","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAxElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACCQY2BgYDIIO9sfHBB9K08BxuNpxBvBYwI71NmoMYHfKzm589/FFgJ29w82GDNAODnZxuAwEtjHOOmRvzGCQbbrid2GBcwJBsbHaAgBZmiRw2aQaDA4wgLckzGA4kbiOkhQ2oRfKHwQH7DTcPNhzmIUYLD1CLBI/BgcQNNxgbm4nSIiGRBvZL8swzic2MMwyI8Iv8jGRgiP2xs+07fvz5jw8VdnIEtaABA9KUj4JRMApGwSjAAQDZiUENUIImjAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4993-8062","institution":"Zunyi Normal College","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Chaobin","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhou","suffix":""},{"id":622099545,"identity":"1460dd35-6d93-45b2-b39b-355318683c4c","order_by":4,"name":"Weihong Sun","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Zunyi Normal College","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Weihong","middleName":"","lastName":"Sun","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-04-10 02:44:05","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9373671/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9373671/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":107488745,"identity":"66b4a3d7-813e-400b-b71c-5391ebd2dd32","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-22 02:45:44","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1988763,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"FYDmanuscriptHongxiaEJPP20260409.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9373671/v1_covered_75594c76-f21f-40c5-9c50-226f5e435ed0.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"Infection risk assessment of flower yellowing disease in Zanthoxylum armatum DC. under projected climate change in Southwest China","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"european-journal-of-plant-pathology","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"ejpp","sideBox":"Learn more about [European Journal of Plant Pathology](http://link.springer.com/journal/10658)","snPcode":"10658","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/ejpp/default2.aspx","title":"European Journal of Plant Pathology","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Flower yellowing disease, Potential distribution, Southwest of China, MaxEnt model, Climate change","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9373671/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9373671/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eResearch on the infection risk of Flower yellowing disease (FYD) is crucial for promoting the sustainable cultivation of \u003cem\u003eZanthoxylum armatum\u003c/em\u003e DC. This study aimed to assess the potential distribution of FYD under current (1970\u0026ndash;2000) and future (2041\u0026ndash;2060 and 2061\u0026ndash;2080) climate conditions across four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585). A total of 80 occurrence records of FYD associated with \u003cem\u003eZ. armatum\u003c/em\u003e were collected from Southwest China, together with 19 bioclimatic variables, one elevation variable, and eight edaphic variables. The MaxEnt model, optimized using the ENMeval package, was applied to predict the potential distribution of FYD. The results showed that all optimized models achieved a ΔAICc value of 0 and AUC values exceeding 0.90, indicating excellent predictive performance. Precipitation of the driest month (Bio_14), annual temperature range (Bio_7), precipitation seasonality (Bio_15), and elevation were identified as the dominant environmental factors influencing the potential distribution of FYD. Compared with the current period, future climate change is projected to markedly expand the area of high-suitability habitats for FYD, with major expansion concentrated in eastern Yunnan, southern Guizhou, and northern Sichuan. These findings suggest that enhanced field surveys, long-term monitoring, and targeted prevention strategies should be prioritized in projected expansion areas to reduce the potential risks of FYD to \u003cem\u003eZ. armatum\u003c/em\u003e cultivation.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Infection risk assessment of flower yellowing disease in Zanthoxylum armatum DC. under projected climate change in Southwest China","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-04-20 23:07:09","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9373671/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2026-04-13T08:20:37+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"European Journal of Plant Pathology","date":"2026-04-13T06:22:33+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2026-04-10T10:06:26+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"European Journal of Plant Pathology","date":"2026-04-09T22:38:58+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"european-journal-of-plant-pathology","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"ejpp","sideBox":"Learn more about [European Journal of Plant Pathology](http://link.springer.com/journal/10658)","snPcode":"10658","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/ejpp/default2.aspx","title":"European Journal of Plant Pathology","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"5ecdfa1c-8ab2-4004-85c6-2fefc88ae351","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 20th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-04-20T23:07:10+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-04-20 23:07:09","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-9373671","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-9373671","identity":"rs-9373671","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}