Identifying hotspots of heat waves, droughts, floods, and their co-occurrences

Identifying hotspots of heat waves, droughts, floods, and their co-occurrences | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Identifying hotspots of heat waves, droughts, floods, and their co-occurrences Marlon Vieira Passos, Jung-Ching Kan, Georgia Destouni, Karina Barquet, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3999281/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 30 Jul, 2024 Read the published version in Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment → Version 1 posted 7 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract To address the increasing need for hydroclimatic hazard assessment, a framework to map hotspots and analyze trends in heat waves, droughts, floods, and their compound occurrences was developed. The framework uses temperature, precipitation, river discharge, and derived climate indices to characterize the spatial distribution of hazard intensity, frequency, duration, co-occurrence, dependence, and their projected changes. The relevant climate indices applied are Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI), Heatwave Index (HWI), and Daily Flood Index (DFI). Suitable environmental indicators and corresponding thresholds for each hazard were selected based on estimated extreme event detection accuracy using receiver operating characteristics. Compound hazard dependence was assessed using Likelihood Multiplication Factor. The framework was tested for the case of Sweden, using daily data for the period 1922-2021. The results show that HWI, SPEI12, DFI are suitable indices to represent heat waves, droughts, and floods, respectively. Application of these indices shows increasing heat wave and flood occurrence in large areas of Sweden, but no significant change trend for droughts. Compound drought-heat wave and drought-flood events are found to be positively correlated in some locations, which can exacerbate their impacts. The novel framework developed here adds to existing hydroclimatic hazard research by (1) using local data and documentation to validate indicator-based hazard hotspots, (2) evaluating compound hazards at regional scale, (3) requiring just a few widely available input variables to (4) attain satisfactory accuracy levels for indicator-based hazard assessment, and (5) being generalizable to various hazard types. Hydroclimatic hazard mapping Compound extreme weather event Climate index Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files SupplementaryMaterial.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 30 Jul, 2024 Read the published version in Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 06 Apr, 2024 Reviews received at journal 07 Mar, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 04 Mar, 2024 Reviewers invited by journal 04 Mar, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 03 Mar, 2024 Submission checks completed at journal 02 Mar, 2024 First submitted to journal 29 Feb, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-3999281","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":276602454,"identity":"15c04750-ad1d-4d26-9dbb-2d2144b5a953","order_by":0,"name":"Marlon Vieira 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