Deciphering West Antarctic Ice Sheet dynamics through statistical magnetostratigraphy: A 3.3-Myr record of Ross Embayment sedimentation responses to global climate transitions

Deciphering West Antarctic Ice Sheet dynamics through statistical magnetostratigraphy: A 3.3-Myr record of Ross Embayment sedimentation responses to global climate transitions | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Deciphering West Antarctic Ice Sheet dynamics through statistical magnetostratigraphy: A 3.3-Myr record of Ross Embayment sedimentation responses to global climate transitions Saiko Sugisaki, Xiangyu Zhao, Tim van Peer, Yusuke Suganuma, Chuang Xuan, and 9 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7883530/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The interaction between the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) and Plio-Pleistocene climate cooling remains pivotal yet poorly constrained due to fragmented Antarctic-proximal records. To resolve this, International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 374 recovered a Plio-Pleistocene sedimentary sequence at Hole U1524A from the Ross Embayment. However, establishing a robust chronostratigraphy was challenged by noisy low-demagnetization-level natural remanent magnetization (NRM) and unresolved characteristic remanent magnetizations (ChRMs) in its deeper intervals. Here, we develop a novel statistical framework leveraging directional-intensity relationships in the shipboard NRM dataset to identify reversal boundaries and quantify their uncertainties using reversal indices, significantly reducing ambiguities associated with noisy NRM and/or ChRM data. Integrating this refined magnetostratigraphy with biostratigraphic and tephrochronological constraints reveals the depositional environment at Hole U1524A closely tracked major global climate shifts over the past 3.3 Myr. Crucially, enhanced terrigenous inputs during the intensification of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (2.8–2.6 Ma), evidenced by peaking in magnetic susceptibility flux ( \(\:{\chi\:}_{\text{f}\text{l}\text{u}\text{x}}\) ), directly link Ross Ice Shelf expansion to global cooling. A subsequent fourfold reduction in sedimentation rates and decreased \(\:{\chi\:}_{\text{f}\text{l}\text{u}\text{x}}\) coincided with AIS growth during glacial periods to volumes approaching or exceeding its modern level. These findings indicate a tipping point in Ross Embayment depositional regimes across the Plio-Pleistocene global climate transition, underscoring the WAIS’s sensitivity to future climate warming. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Palaeoceanography Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts Earth and environmental sciences/Solid Earth sciences/Sedimentology Earth and environmental sciences/Solid Earth sciences/Geology/Stratigraphy Earth and environmental sciences/Solid Earth sciences/Palaeomagnetism Ross Embayment International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) magnetostratigraphy unmixing inclination histogram Bayes’ theorem intensification of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation West Antarctic Ice Sheet Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SupplementaryMaterials20251009.docx Supplementary Materials Deciphering West Antarctic Ice Sheet dynamics through statistical magnetostratigraphy: A 3.3-Myr record of Ross embayment sedimentation responses to global climate transitions Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7883530","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":532991077,"identity":"beaa8840-d95c-4020-8cc7-ada58a05ad69","order_by":0,"name":"Saiko Sugisaki","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA8UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYNACAwYGCWbmAwwJCD5RWtgSgFoMiNUCBBIMPAbEKZZvYH8m+aWgTl6ynefjhwd//jDIuzcwFBfgc9IBHjNpGYPDhrOZeTdLJLYZMBieOcBgPAOvL3jYpCUMDjDOY+bdIJHYANQyI4HBmIeAw4Ba6uznMfM8/pHwhwgtDAcYzCQ/GDAnzmbmYZNIYDNgkJcgoMXgMI+xNZBMntnMZmaR2GbMY8BzsAGvX+Tb2x/e/PGnznbG+cOPgQw5Ofn25mPG+EKMgRmIkJ3BAwyKNmN8OkCA8QeKvQ0MzI8JaRkFo2AUjIIRBQCTGkKTwVhS0QAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Research Institute of Geology and Geoinformation, Geological Survey of Japan, National Institute of Advanced Science and Technology (AIST),","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Saiko","middleName":"","lastName":"Sugisaki","suffix":""},{"id":532991078,"identity":"2a766384-e39e-47c1-807d-a174e3130174","order_by":1,"name":"Xiangyu Zhao","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Shanghai Jiao Tong University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xiangyu","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhao","suffix":""},{"id":532991079,"identity":"7d0d3f0b-5758-4e16-b6c5-5ba031dfd9a6","order_by":2,"name":"Tim van Peer","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3516-4198","institution":"University of Leicester","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Tim","middleName":"van","lastName":"Peer","suffix":""},{"id":532991080,"identity":"0a84a324-9e77-4bbe-823e-b46f09e1a152","order_by":3,"name":"Yusuke Suganuma","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"National Institute of Polar Research","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yusuke","middleName":"","lastName":"Suganuma","suffix":""},{"id":532991081,"identity":"25b879e6-b90d-4ff2-918f-41111d186a3e","order_by":4,"name":"Chuang Xuan","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Southampton","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Chuang","middleName":"","lastName":"Xuan","suffix":""},{"id":532991082,"identity":"5cb20637-76a4-4eba-9d43-2236d104966e","order_by":5,"name":"Wenshen Xiao","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7240-2274","institution":"Tongji University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Wenshen","middleName":"","lastName":"Xiao","suffix":""},{"id":532991083,"identity":"0c1e976c-98da-4120-b405-e52b45cc7b42","order_by":6,"name":"Laura De Santis","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7752-7754","institution":"National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics - 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\u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Deciphering West Antarctic Ice Sheet dynamics through statistical magnetostratigraphy: A 3.3-Myr record of Ross Embayment sedimentation responses to global climate transitions","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Ross Embayment, International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP), magnetostratigraphy, unmixing inclination histogram, Bayes’ theorem, intensification of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation, West Antarctic Ice Sheet","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7883530/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7883530/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe interaction between the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) and Plio-Pleistocene climate cooling remains pivotal yet poorly constrained due to fragmented Antarctic-proximal records. To resolve this, International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 374 recovered a Plio-Pleistocene sedimentary sequence at Hole U1524A from the Ross Embayment. However, establishing a robust chronostratigraphy was challenged by noisy low-demagnetization-level natural remanent magnetization (NRM) and unresolved characteristic remanent magnetizations (ChRMs) in its deeper intervals. Here, we develop a novel statistical framework leveraging directional-intensity relationships in the shipboard NRM dataset to identify reversal boundaries and quantify their uncertainties using reversal indices, significantly reducing ambiguities associated with noisy NRM and/or ChRM data. Integrating this refined magnetostratigraphy with biostratigraphic and tephrochronological constraints reveals the depositional environment at Hole U1524A closely tracked major global climate shifts over the past 3.3 Myr. Crucially, enhanced terrigenous inputs during the intensification of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (2.8\u0026ndash;2.6 Ma), evidenced by peaking in magnetic susceptibility flux (\u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{\\chi\\:}_{\\text{f}\\text{l}\\text{u}\\text{x}}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e), directly link Ross Ice Shelf expansion to global cooling. A subsequent fourfold reduction in sedimentation rates and decreased \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{\\chi\\:}_{\\text{f}\\text{l}\\text{u}\\text{x}}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e coincided with AIS growth during glacial periods to volumes approaching or exceeding its modern level. These findings indicate a tipping point in Ross Embayment depositional regimes across the Plio-Pleistocene global climate transition, underscoring the WAIS\u0026rsquo;s sensitivity to future climate warming.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Deciphering West Antarctic Ice Sheet dynamics through statistical magnetostratigraphy: A 3.3-Myr record of Ross Embayment sedimentation responses to global climate transitions","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-10-22 09:11:23","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7883530/v1","editorialEvents":[],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-communications","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"NCOMMS","sideBox":"Learn more about [Nature Communications](http://www.nature.com/ncomms/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://mts-ncomms.nature.com/","title":"Nature Communications","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"Nature Communications","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"72e31219-15e2-44e9-93b6-04b31ea72bf3","owner":[],"postedDate":"October 22nd, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":56662314,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Palaeoceanography"},{"id":56662315,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts"},{"id":56662316,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Solid Earth sciences/Sedimentology"},{"id":56662317,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Solid Earth sciences/Geology/Stratigraphy"},{"id":56662318,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Solid Earth sciences/Palaeomagnetism"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-12-02T19:15:38+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-10-22 09:11:23","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7883530","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7883530","identity":"rs-7883530","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}