Drivers of persistent changes in the global methane cycle under aggressive mitigation action

Drivers of persistent changes in the global methane cycle under aggressive mitigation action | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Drivers of persistent changes in the global methane cycle under aggressive mitigation action Gerd Folberth, Fiona O'Connor, Chris Jones, Nicola Gedney, Andrew Wiltshire This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4078060/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 05 Apr, 2025 Read the published version in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science → Version 1 posted 10 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract To achieve the goals under the Paris climate agreement comprehensive mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions is required. Here methane plays an important role. Therefore, better understanding of the global methane cycle is indispensable for robust climate projections and assessments of multi-gas mitigation strategies. Here we simulate the global methane cycle fully interactively over the period 1850-2100, including a Shared Socioeconomic Pathway with strong mitigation action (SSP1-2.6 ). We show that under SSP1-2.6 the atmospheric methane burden recovers to almost pre-industrial levels, but wetland methane emissions show a persistent upward trend from 166 Tg(CH4) yr-1 in the 1850s to 221 Tg(CH4) yr-1 in the 2090s. Analogously, the atmospheric methane lifetime exhibits a persistent downward trend from 9.3 to 7.3 years. We identify the trend in net primary productivity as the dominant driver behind the trend in wetland methane emissions, with a correlation coefficient of 0.7. Significantly, our work demonstrates that important components of the global methane cycle such as wetland methane emissions and the methane lifetime are subject to feedbacks in the Earth system which elude methane mitigation action. Therefore, future methane mitigation strategies will need to take into account feedbacks in the Earth system. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science/Atmospheric chemistry Earth and environmental sciences/Biogeochemistry Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate and Earth system modelling Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change mitigation Full Text Additional Declarations (Not answered) Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 05 Apr, 2025 Read the published version in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: revise 21 May, 2024 Review # 2 received at journal 20 May, 2024 Reviewer # 3 agreed at journal 24 Apr, 2024 Review # 1 received at journal 21 Apr, 2024 Reviewer # 2 agreed at journal 15 Apr, 2024 Reviewer # 1 agreed at journal 12 Apr, 2024 Reviewers invited by journal 28 Mar, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 13 Mar, 2024 Submission checks completed at journal 12 Mar, 2024 First submitted to journal 11 Mar, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4078060","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":285017268,"identity":"3caea1ab-6b42-4d5c-a8cd-a5c79c5b1cf7","order_by":0,"name":"Gerd Folberth","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1075-440X","institution":"Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Gerd","middleName":"","lastName":"Folberth","suffix":""},{"id":285017269,"identity":"e72ed4c8-bd18-4d7d-97f8-c2f86f69c74e","order_by":1,"name":"Fiona O'Connor","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2893-4828","institution":"Hadley Centre","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Fiona","middleName":"","lastName":"O'Connor","suffix":""},{"id":285017270,"identity":"f3d1d76e-8a53-42db-8bfb-bad0cd12a3b4","order_by":2,"name":"Chris Jones","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Metoffice","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Chris","middleName":"","lastName":"Jones","suffix":""},{"id":285017271,"identity":"7320b31b-1410-4c96-95b4-452900717316","order_by":3,"name":"Nicola Gedney","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Nicola","middleName":"","lastName":"Gedney","suffix":""},{"id":285017272,"identity":"50cd8024-27ba-482b-8579-ef4b57d052d8","order_by":4,"name":"Andrew Wiltshire","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Andrew","middleName":"","lastName":"Wiltshire","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-03-11 21:11:10","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4078060/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4078060/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00867-z","type":"published","date":"2025-04-05T04:00:00+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":79984727,"identity":"28a585f8-8d64-4fc5-b11e-b8958a7d4c87","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-06 07:06:56","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":736687,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"PersistentChangesInTheGlobalMethaneCycle.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4078060/v1_covered_d4a12e61-f790-4e75-9600-8ad04e674cb4.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"(Not answered)","formattedTitle":"Drivers of persistent changes in the global methane cycle under aggressive mitigation action","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"npj-climate-and-atmospheric-science","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"npjclimatsci","sideBox":"Learn more about [npj Climate and Atmospheric Science](http://www.nature.com/npjclimatsci/)","snPcode":"41612","submissionUrl":"https://submission.springernature.com/new-submission/41612/3","title":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"NPJ","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4078060/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4078060/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"To achieve the goals under the Paris climate agreement comprehensive mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions is required. 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