The Climate Opportunities and Risks of Contrail Avoidance

The Climate Opportunities and Risks of Contrail Avoidance | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article The Climate Opportunities and Risks of Contrail Avoidance Jessie Smith, Carla Grobler, Paul J Hodgson, Jayant Mukhopadhaya, and 5 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6925120/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 28 Jan, 2026 Read the published version in Nature Communications → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Navigational contrail avoidance presents an opportunity for rapid reduction in aviation-attributable warming. We use the Aviation Climate and Air Quality Impacts model to evaluate the global temperature changes associated with avoidance towards 2050. If no avoidance is adopted, aviation is projected to contribute 0.1 K of warming by 2050: 0.04 K from CO 2 and 0.06 K from contrails. This is 20% of the difference between current temperatures and the +2 °C limit above pre-Industrial levels, i.e. 20% of our remaining temperature budget. An avoidance strategy phased in over 2035-2045 may recover 10% of this budget, but a 10-year delay may reduce this to 2%. When the additional CO2 emitted during avoidance is accounted for, there is <0.01% chance of a net warming. For every year of delay, the world will be on average 0.004 K hotter in 2050. The most significant climate risk associated with contrail avoidance is therefore inaction. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change mitigation Physical sciences/Engineering Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 28 Jan, 2026 Read the published version in Nature Communications → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6925120","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":473498521,"identity":"e716fdf8-7fc4-4867-9be5-50be1c649b0c","order_by":0,"name":"Jessie 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We use the Aviation Climate and Air Quality Impacts model to evaluate the global temperature changes associated with avoidance towards 2050. If no avoidance is adopted, aviation is projected to contribute 0.1 K of warming by 2050: 0.04 K from CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e and 0.06 K from contrails. This is 20% of the difference between current temperatures and the +2 °C limit above pre-Industrial levels, i.e. 20% of our remaining temperature budget. An avoidance strategy phased in over 2035-2045 may recover 10% of this budget, but a 10-year delay may reduce this to 2%. When the additional CO2 emitted during avoidance is accounted for, there is \u003c0.01% chance of a net warming. For every year of delay, the world will be on average 0.004 K hotter in 2050. 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