Exploring the Short-Term and Long-Term Effects of the COVID-19 School Closures on Reading Fluency in Southern Germany: A Longitudinal Causal Effects Analysis

The coronavirus-related school closures in Bavaria, as in Germany as a whole, lasted from March to June 2020 and were therefore on an average scale internationally. This study investigates the impact of these closures on reading fluency in elementary students. To evaluate the short-term one month) and long-term (one year) effects of third-grade school closures on reading fluency, we use a longitudinal causal effects approach. The study involved 9,083 students in Bavaria,divided into two cohorts: one affected by third-grade closures, and a control cohort who experienced closures in second grade one year earlier. Data were collected over five measurement points, using the Salzburger Lesescreening (SLS) to assess reading fluency. The study employed a Difference-in-Differences approach with propensity score weighting to estimate causal effects, accounting for confounders like participation in a reading intervention, gender, educationalbackground, and migration status. Pre-COVID data and pre-trend analysis on the study sample indicated a linear increase in SLS raw scores over time. The affected cohort showed no significant deviations from this trend during the pandemic, suggesting neither short-term nor long-term impacts on reading fluency. However, variations in teaching efforts and other COVID-related effects could have influenced these results. In conclusion, findings indicate that school closuresdue to COVID-19 have not impacted reading fluency as one example of a consolidated ability, in third grade students in Southern Germany.