Abstract
Background:
Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) are proposed for us e in clinical and research settings for risk
stratification. PRS predictions often show bi as toward the population of available genome-
wide association studies, which is typically of European ancestry. This study aims to assess
the performance differences of ancestry-specif ic PRS and test the implementation of multi-
ancestry PRS to enhance the generalizability of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol
predictions in the East Asian population
Methods
We computed ancestry-specific and multi-ancestry PRS for LDL using data from the global
lipid consortium while accounting for population-specific linkage disequilibrium patterns using
PRS-CSx method. We first conducted an anc estry-wide analysis using the UK Biobank
dataset (n=423,596) and then applied the same models to the Taiwan Biobank dataset
(TWB, n=68,978). PRS performances were based on linear regression with adjustment for
age, sex, and principal components. PRS strata were considered to assess the extent to
which a PRS categorization can stratify individual s for LDL cholesterol levels in East Asian
samples.
Results
Population-specific PRS better predicted LDL levels within the target population but multi-
ancestry PRS were more generalizable. In the TWB dataset, covariate-adjusted R
2 values
were 9.3% for ancestry-specific PRS, 6.7% for multi-ancestry PRS, and 4.5% for European-
specific PRS. Similar trends (8.6%, 7.8%, 6.2%) were observed in the smaller East Asian
population of the UK Biobank (n=1,480). Consistent with the R 2 values, PRS stratification in
East Asians (TWB) effectively captured a heterogenous variability in LDL blood cholesterol
levels across PRS strata. The mean difference in LDL levels between the lowest and highest
East Asian-specific PRS (EAS_PRS) deciles was 0.82, compared to 0.59 for European-
specific PRS (EUR_PRS) and 0.76 for multi-ancestry PRS. Notably, the mean LDL values in
the top decile of multi-ancestry PRS were comparable to those of EAS_PRS (3.543 vs.
3.541, P=0.86).
Conclusions
Our analysis of the PRS prediction model for LD L cholesterol further supports the issue of
PRS generalizability across populations. Our targeted analysis of the East Asian (EAS)
population revealed that integrating non-European genotyping data, accounting for
population-specific linkage disequilibrium, and considering meta-analyses of non-European-
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based GWAS alongside powerful European-based GWAS can enhance the generalizability
of LDL PRS.
Background
Blood lipid levels are a significant, modifiable, and heritable risk factors for coronary artery
disease (CAD), including low-density lipoprotein (LDL-C) 1. Previous studies have
demonstrated that lipid levels have a moderate-to-high heritability variations, ranging from 20
to 60% 2. Numerous common variants have been discovered in recent genome-wide
association studies (GWASs) associated with LDL, as well as many other traits 3. However,
the majority of these variants are weakly asso ciated individually with a given trait or disease
and have limited predictive power. The cumulative effects of several common variants have
been suggested to contribute significantly to the ri sk stratification for clinical utility. Methods
have been developed for analyzing data from th ese large-scale studies and detecting
genetic variants and phenotype associations, i.e., one such method is the polygenic risk
score (PRS). Several studies have evaluated the association between PRS and the risk of
various conditions 4, including lipid traits 5, CAD 6, cancer 7,8, diabetes 9, and
neurodevelopmental disorders.
One of the major issues concerning the tr anslational use of PRS is the strong dependency
on population specificity. In fact, the perform ance of PRS can be significantly influenced by
the linkage-disequlibrium (LD) across variants and allele frequencies that are specific to
different populations 10. As a consequence, PRS has been mostly limited to European
ancestry cohorts for which larger reference GWAS are available 11. In addition to LD and
allele frequencies also gene-environment interactions might also be responsible for the
different genetic susceptibilities toward a trait. Fo r instance the genetic liability of lipid levels
is less understood in East Asian ancestry populations 11. Since individuals with East Asian
ancestry account for more than a fifth of the global population, understanding genetic
variation in East Asians is crucial to improve risk characterization and preventive
interventions12.
In the last few years the availability of large population-based cohorts and cross-ancestry
GWAS enabled also the development of novel computational algorithms to improve the
generalizability of PRS 13,14. A multi-ancestry, GWAS meta-analysis of lipid levels was
conducted by the Global Lipid Genetics Co nsortium including 350,000 people of non-
European ancestry, 150,000 East Asian individuals, and approximately 1.65 million people 5.
The study also demonstrated that our understanding of the genetic component associated
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with lipid levels is significantly improved by increasing diversity rather than including
additional European ancestry individuals.
In this study, we derived ancestry-specific and cross-ancestry PRS to predict serum LDL
level by first considering all populations and then focusing on East Asian individuals.
Specifically, we derived six LDL-PRSs: four ances try-specific PRS (East Asian, South Asian,
European, African) and two multi-ancestry PRSs (East Asian with European meta-analysis,
and the four ancestry meta-analysis). The six PRSs were tested among nine population
groups estimated from the UK Biobank (UKB, n=423,596). We focused on the East Asian
ancestry group from the UKB and validated the PRS with participants from the Taiwan
Biobank (TWB, n=68,978). We then tested the associations between PRS and LDL
cholesterol changes among East Asian individuals in both biobanks.
Methods
Study subjects
The analysis was performed using genetic and phenotypic data of the UKB and
TWB. UKB is a population-based cohort study, with over 500,000 individuals aged
40 to 69 years at the time of recruitment 15. We excluded outliers with high genotype
missing rates, putative sex chromosome aneuploidy, and discordant reported sex vs
genotypic sex
16. We randomly excluded one from each pair of related individuals if
the genetic relationship was closer than the second degree, defined as kinship
coefficient > 0.0884 as calculated by the UKB. We applied a previous approach to
divide UKB individuals into nine ancestry groups by projecting data onto the PCA
space of 1000 Genomes Project
11.
TWB is a Taiwanese-based cohort study, with 68,978 individuals aged from 30 to 75
across 750k SNPs
17. For more overlapping SNPs with PRS models, we imputed the
TWB cohort. First, we filtered out SNPs based on the missing rate and Hardy-
Weinberg equilibrium. Then, we imputed the genotype with a reference based on the
whole genome sequencing data of 1,496 Taiwanese individuals. In total, we obtained
15 million SNPs for 69k Taiwanese individuals as our external validation set.
UK Biobank ancestry grouping
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We assigned the samples to different countries using PC-projection as demonstrated
in a previous study 11. In this previous study, the authors explored different methods
to classify individuals into ancestry groups using principal component analysis (PCA)
of genome-wide genotype data. They find that Euclidean distances in the PCA space
are proportional to genetic differences between populations and recommend using
this distance measure. They suggest using all principal components to capture
population structure, as using only two or four is insufficient for distinguishing certain
populations. They apply PCA-based distance to infer ancestry in datasets and
propose two solutions: projecting PCs to reference populations or using internal
data. They demonstrate that these solutions are effective for inferring ancestry and
grouping genetically similar individuals. Here, we used this approach to define the
nine ancestry groups based on UK Biobank data and birth country information, with
some groups including individuals from neighboring countries (namely, East Asian:
China; European: United Kingdom, Italy, and Poland; African: Nigeria, and
Caribbean; South Asian: India; Middle East: Iran, and Ashkenazi Jewish).
Additionally, we defined East Asian subpopulations by projecting samples in the
1000 Genomes Project PC space considering the five East Asian subpopulations as
references.
Construction of multi-ancestry polygenic score
To evaluate the potential of PRS to predict increased LDL cholesterol levels in East
Asian ancestry. We used the latest Global Lipid Genetics Consortium GWAS that
was conducted in different populations to derive an ancestry-specific or multi-
ancestry LDL PRS
5. We considered the summary statistics that did not include UK
Biobank samples. Six PRSs were created: one for each ancestry (East Asian, South
Asian, European, African), and two meta-analyses using multi-ancestry GWAS (one
using East Asian and European ancestry, and the other using the four ancestries).
PRSs weights were conducted using PRS-CSx
13 (accounting for population-specific
allele frequencies and LD patterns ) and the 1000 Genomes Project as a reference
panel that matched the ancestry of each discovery GWAS. The PRS-CSx method
incorporates summary statistics from different GWAS and links the genetic effects
across populations using a continuous shrinkage prior that is shared between them.
This approach allows for more precise estimation of effect sizes by using information
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from the summary statistics and taking advantage of the variation in linkage
disequilibrium across the discovery samples. By jointly modeling these multi-
ancestry summary statistics, PRS-CSx might be able to better capture the underlying
genetic effects and produce more accurate predictions. We developed the multi-
ancestry PRS using the “--meta” option provided by the software. We tested each of
the six PRSs in the nine population groups from the UKB. We then evaluated the
six PRSs among the East Asian cohort of the TWB. We compared the PRS
performance between individuals in TWB and two East Asian sub-populations from
the UKB (namely Han Chinese South [CHS] and Kinh in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
[KHV]) from the 1000 Genomes Project. Notebly, that most of TWB individuals are
clustered with the CHS group
18. We excluded the other three East Asian
subpopulations due to sample size limitations.
Assessment of PRS accuracy
We assessed the prediction accuracy of the six PRSs in the nine estimated
populations from the UKB and Taiwanese population from the TWB. We
standardized PRSs to a mean of 0 and standard deviation of 1. Two models were
used: (1) the full model which included PRS with sex, age, age
2 and the first four
genetic principal components as covariates (formula: LDL ~ PRS + sex + age + age2
+ PC1 + PC2 + PC3 + PC4), and (2) the reference model which only accounted for
covariates (formula: LDL ~ sex + age + age
2 + PC1 + PC2 + PC3 + PC4). Linear
regression was performed, and incremental R 2 was calculated following previous
study19 as the difference between the adjusted R 2 of the full model (including PRS
as an additional predictor) and the reference model. Mean LDL values across deciles
of EAS_PRS, EUR_PRS, and multi-ancestry PRS were computed in all individuals of
TWB to evaluate the range of phenotypic variability cover for these PRS.
Results
Study populations
In the UK Biobank, the estimated ethnic groups of the United Kingdom (UK) and
China had significantly different study participant characteristics (Table 1). In
comparison to people in the United Kingdom (UK), Chinese participants had lower
LDL concentrations (mean, SD: 3.42 mmol/L, 0.77), lower TC levels (mean, SD: 5.54
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mmol/L, 1.03), and similar HDL levels (mean, SD: 1.46 mmol/L, 0.38). They were
also younger (mean age, SD: 52.3, 7.71). The Chinese participants had a lower
percentage of men than the UK (38.8% vs. 45.9%). Participants from China had a
significantly lower body mass index (BMI) (mean, SD: 24.07 kg/m2, 3.4) than UK
participants (p-value <2.2 x 10-16).
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Table 1 Study participant characteristics stratified by estimated ethnicity in UK Biobank. For continuous variables, p-values from the Welch t-statistic tests are
reported, while for categorical and binary variables, p-values from Pearson’s Chi-squared tests are reported. HC, hypercholesterolemia; HDL, high-density
lipoprotein cholesterol; LDL, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol; SD, standard deviation.
Participants, N Males, N (%) Age, Mean (SD) HC Cases, N (%) HC Controls, N BMI, Mean (SD) LDL, Mean (SD) HDL, Mean (SD) TC, Mea n (SD)
UK Biobank
United Kingdom 423596 194259 (45.9) 56.81 (8.02) 110166 (26.01) 313430 (73.99) 27.4 (4.76) 3.57 (0.87) 1.45 (0.38) 5.71 (1.14)
Italy 6451 2882 (44.7) 54.5 (8.41) 1624 (25.17) 4827 (74.83) 27.35 (4.94) 3.56 (0.86) 1.45 (0.38) 5.68 (1.12)
India 6303 3413 (54.1) 53.42 (8.41) 1135 (18.01) 5168 (81.99) 27.42 (4.5) 3.35 (0.85) 1.25 (0.32) 5.31 (1.12)
Poland 4095 1544 (37.7) 54.4 (7.53) 1088 (26.57) 3007 (73.43) 27.39 (4.96) 3.59 (0.85) 1.49 (0.4) 5.76 (1.13)
Nigeria 3802 1744 (45.9) 51.95 (8.14) 551 (14.49) 3251 (85.51) 29.82 (5.31) 3.21 (0.84) 1.43 (0.35) 5.17 (1.09)
Caribbean 2492 898 (36) 52.52 (8.13) 396 (15.89) 2096 (84.11) 29.49 (5.56) 3.28 (0.83) 1.47 (0.38) 5.29 (1.09)
Ashkenazi 2359 1067 (45.2) 58.09 (7.1) 613 (25.99) 1746 (74.01) 27.13 (4.54) 3.55 (0.9) 1.44 (0.39) 5.68 (1.2)
China 1480 545 (36.8) 52.33 (7.71) 263 (17.77) 1217 (82.23) 24.07 (3.4) 3.42 (0.77) 1.46 (0.38) 5.54 (1.03)
Iran 1145 680 (59.4) 51.99 (7.98) 234 (20.44) 911 (79.56) 27.98 (4.55) 3.43 (0.86) 1.28 (0.33) 5.4 (1.11)
P-Value: United
Kingdom/China <1.1 x 10-16 <2.2 x 10-16 <2.9 x 10-16 <2.9 x 10-16 <2.2 x 10-16 <1.8 x 10-13 0.53 <1.6 x 10-10
Taiwan Biobank
Taiwan 68,978 21,495 (31.2) 51.0 (10.9) 8,196 (13.5) 60,782 (86.5) 24.25 (3.8) 3.16 (0.82) 1.43 (0.35) 5.12 (0.93)
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In the TWB, the percentage of men is 31.2% which is lower than the percentage of
Chinese participants in the UK Biobank, while the age distribution (mean, SD: 51.0,
10.9) is similar. In addition, TWB individuals had lower levels of lipid traits, including
LDL (mean, SD: 3.16 mmol/L, 0.82), HDL (mean, SD: 1.43 mmol/L, 0.35), and TC
(mean, SD: 5.12 mmol/L, 0.93), but higher BMI (mean, SD: 24.25 kg/m2, 3.80).
Evaluation of the PRS in the nine-estimated populations from the UK Biobank
We assessed the performance of ancestry-specific PRS for the LDL levels across
the nine estimated populations in the UKB (Figure 1). As expected, the LDL PRS
derived from European GWAS (EUR_PRS) was associated with the best
performance in different European populations (namely, United Kingdom, Poland,
and Italy) and in Middle East populations (namely, Ashkenazi Jews and Iranians).
Similarly, the LDL PRS derived from African GWAS (AFR_PRS) showed the best
performance in the population of African origin (Nigeria and Caribbean). The LDL
PRS derived from the East Asian GWAS (EAS_PRS) was the best performing in the
Chinese population. Surprisingly, when we tested EUR_PRS and PRS derived from
the South Asian GWAS (SAS_PRS) in the India participants, EUR_PRS performed
better than SAS_PRS.
Concerning the multi-ancestry PRS, we tested a PRS derived from a meta-analysis
of European and East Asian GWASs (EUR_EAS_PRS), and a global PRS derived
from a meta analysis of the four ancestries (EUR_EAS_SAS_AFR_PRS). The multi-
ancestry PRS showed comparable prediction to ancestry-specific PRS and seems to
be more generalizable across populations, specifically for European, Middle East,
and SAS populations. For instance, for the United Kingdom population, the adjusted
R2% using EUR_PRS (8.62%) was similar to that using EUR_EAS_SAS_AFR_PRS
(8.56%). For the AFR and EAS populations, ancestry-specific PRS performed better
than multi-ancestry PRS. For instance, for the Chinese population, the adjusted R2%
using EAS_PRS (6.35%) was higher than that using EUR_EAS_SAS_AFR_PRS
(5.55%).
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Figure 1. Performance of ancestry-specific and multi-ancestry PRS models for LDL
across nine sub-population in the UKB.
Evaluation of the PRS in the Taiwan biobank
Within the TWB, we evaluated the different ancestry-specific and multi-ancestry
PRSs for the LDL levels (Figure 2). Similar to our findings in the UKB China
participants, the EAS_PRS (adjusted R 2%=9.3%) also demonstrated better
performance than EUR_PRS (adjusted R 2%=4.5%) in the TWB individuals and had
even a better performance compared to multi-ancestry PRS (adjusted R 2%=6.7%).
We also compared the performance of PRS between TWB individuals and the East
Asian sub-populations from the UKB. We found that EAS_PRS has a comparable
performance specially between populations from TWB (adjusted R 2%=6.5%) and
CHS (adjusted R2=6.1%) from UKB.
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Figure 2. Performance of ancestry-specific and multi-ancestry PRS models for LDL
on East Asian populations.
Association between different PRS strata and LDL values
We analyzed the mean of LDL levels in individuals from TWB based on their
EAS_PRS, EUR_PRS, and multi-ancestry PRS deciles. We compared the difference
in mean LDL levels between the lowest and highest deciles of EAS_PRS,
EUR_PRS, and Multi PRS. Our findings showed that in East Asians, EAS_PRS
explained a wider range of phenotypic variability compared to EUR_PRS.
Specifically, the difference in mean LDL levels between the lowest and highest
EAS_PRS deciles was 0.82, while for EUR_PRS it was 0.59 (Figure 3). The mean
difference in LDL levels between the lowest and highest multi-ancestry PRS deciles
was 0.76. However, the mean LDL levels in the highest deciles in both EAS_PRS
and multi-ancestry PRS were the same (LDL mean (mmol/L) = 3.54, P=0.86).
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Figure 3. LDL mean values across deciles of EAS, EUR and Multi PRSs of East
Asians (TWB) PRS.
Discussion
In this study aimed at predicting LDL in two EAS populations (from UKB and TWB)
using the latest Global Lipids Genetics Consortium GWAS. Our findings indicate
that: 1) ancestry-specific PRS yield better performance in predicting LDL levels, and
2) multi-ancestry PRSs together with computational approaches integrating
population specific LD-pattern can be used to enhance the generalizability of PRSs.
In particular, the multi-ancestry PRSs showed that even relatively small proportions
of non-European samples can significantly improve prediction in non-EUR
populations. Our work emphasizes the importance of conducting global GWAS that
include diverse populations to enhance the generalizability of PRSs, even when the
availability of diverse population samples is limited.
Our study further suggest that statistical genetics approaches can be used to take
advantage of the already available global GWAS data, even when the number of
non-European samples is limited. One example, the latest Global Lipids Genetics
Consortium GWAS includes individuals across five genetic ancestry groups:
admixed African or African (6.0% of the sample), East Asian (8.9%), European
(79.8%), Hispanic (2.9%), and South Asian (2.5%) 5. Recently published Bayesian
PRS approaches demonstrated an improvement in the accuracy of PRSs in non-
European populations by utilizing common genetic effects across ancestries 13,14.
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Another recent study, the authors conducted a benchmarking analysis to compare
several PRS methods for multi-ancestry analysis in the UKBB dataset, which
included lipid traits and EAS data using also global lipid consortium GWAS data 20.
The findings of this study provided insights on the use of statistical methods to
improve prediction performance in non-Europeans.
The applicability of the findings on the portability of PRS from multi-ancestry meta-
analyses to other traits needs to be taken into account, considering multiple
factors21. These factors include the heritability of the trait 22, genetic correlation 23,
causal variants allele frequencies 24, gene-environment interactions 25, and the
inclusion of multi-ancestry populations in GWAS 26,27. In a recent study, they
estimated the cross-ancestry genetic correlation for cholesterol and observed a
significant genetic heterogeneity between ancestries for total and LDL cholesterol 22.
While many traits exhibit a significant shared genetic correlation across ancestries,
indicating potential transferability of multi-ancestry PRS 28, some traits have specific
genetic variations that are more commonly found in particular ancestral groups 29,30.
To ensure the effective use of PRS in diverse populations, it is crucial to conduct
comprehensive investigations considering these factors and include a representative
range of ancestries in future GWAS studies 31. Moreover, a recent study emphasizes
the necessity of moving away from discrete genetic ancestry clusters and embracing
the continuum of genetic ancestries when analyzing and interpreting PGS 10. By
accounting for individual variation and considering the diverse genetic backgrounds
within populations, more accurate PGS assessments can be achieved.
By leveraging the available diverse GWAS data, we can improve the generalizability
of PRSs, and ultimately enhance our ability to predict complex disease risk across
diverse populations. As such, our study provides valuable insights into the
development and implementation of PRSs for predicting lipid traits in East Asian
populations, and highlights the need for continued efforts to increase diversity in
genetic research while also working on bioinformatics approaches to meta-analyze
the association signal across different populations.
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Conclusion
In our study we evaluated the performance of ancestry-specific and multi-ancestry
PRSs for LDL, in various populations including East Asians from the UK Biobank and
Taiwan Biobank. The findings corroborated that ancestry specific PRSs performed
better than out of target population PRSs in the respective ancestry. In particular, the
EAS_PRS had better performance in East Asian populations, while the EUR_PRS
showed better performance in European and Middle East populations. The multi-
ancestry PRS analysis showed that even a small proportion of non-European
samples can significantly improve prediction in non-EUR populations. These findings
provide valuable insights into the development of PRSs for diverse populations and
the potential clinical applications of PRSs. On the one hand, our analysis suggests
that incorporating cross-ancestry GWAS data and utilizing optimized computational
algorithms to account for population-specific LD-patterns can improve the
generalizability of PRS. On the other hand, these results further emphasize the
necessity of enhancing genetic diversity in GWAS studies and establishing large-
scale population-based cohorts to more accurately model the genetic liability of
multifactorial traits, such as LDL cholesterol.
List of abbreviations
PRS: Polygenic risk scores
UKB: UK
TWB: Taiwan Biobank
TC: total cholesterol
LDL-C: low-density lipoprotein cholesterol
GWAS: genome-wide association studies
CHS: Han Chinese South
KHV: Kinh in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
EUR: European
EAS: East Asian
SAS: South Asian
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AFR: African
PC: Principal Component
Declarations
Ethics approval and consent to participate
This study made use of anonymized data from UK Biobank and Taiwan Biobank. Written
informed consent was provided by all individuals. The research ethics committee for the UK
Biobank and Taiwan Biobank gave its approval to the protocol and the permission. Our
investigation was carried out in accordance with approved UK Biobank data application
number 52446 and Taiwan Biobank data application number TWBR10411-03. We hereby
confirm that, all methods were carried out in accordance with relevant guidelines and
regulations.
Consent for publication: Not Applicable
Availability of data and code
Access to genome-wide genotyping data, and phenotypic data from the UK and Taiwan
Biobank can be obtained through a successful project application process. Detailed
information about the application process can be found at
(http://www.ukbiobank.ac.uk/about-biobank-uk/
) and
(https://taiwanview.twbiobank.org.tw/data_appl). Certain restrictions apply to the availability
of these data, as they were used under license for the current study. The codes related to
the statistical analysis for this study have been deposited on GitLab at the following location
(doi:10.17881/8wqn-x712).
Competing Interests: No potential conflicts (financial, professional, or personal) for
all authors relevant to the manuscript.
Funding: PM received funding from the Luxembourg National Research Fund (FNR)
INTER grant ‘ProtectMove’ (INTER/DFG/19/14429377). EH, DRB and PM were
supported by the FNR INTER INTER/DFG/21/16394868.
Authors’ contributions: EH, KL, YL and CM performed the statistical analysis and
the bioinformatics. EH, KL, CC and CM conceived and designed the study. EH, KL,
CC and CM drafted the initial manuscript. EH, KL, TH, RA, YL, DRB, PK, PM, CC
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and CM performed the critical expert revision. CC and CM supervised the study. All
authors read and approved the final manuscript.
Acknowledgements
UK Biobank analyses were conducted via appl ication 52446 using a protocol approved by
the Partners HealthCare Institutional Review Board and Taiwan Biobank using data
application number TWBR10411-03.
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