Stagnant crop productivity growth in southern Africa despite moderate climate trends

Stagnant crop productivity growth in southern Africa despite moderate climate trends | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Stagnant crop productivity growth in southern Africa despite moderate climate trends David Lobell, Richard Lee This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4344936/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 15 Jul, 2025 Read the published version in Nature Food → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Southern Africa is facing a unique combination of high rates of current food insecurity and projected declines in agro-climatic conditions due to climate change. Here we show using multiple satellite measures that, outside of South Africa, countries in the region have not experienced significant gains in cropland productivity in the past 20 years. This view contrasts with the rosier picture painted by official crop yield records. Satellite productivity measures show clear interannual responses to temperature and rainfall, yet we find that recent climate trends do not explain the productivity stagnation. Instead, much of the region has benefitted from increased rainfall and less warming than projected by most climate model simulations. Our results suggest that the region missed an opportunity to raise productivity in the face of benign climate trends, and there is a clear and urgent need to change course before climate impacts accelerate. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences Scientific community and society/Agriculture Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 15 Jul, 2025 Read the published version in Nature Food → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4344936","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":310837595,"identity":"80a54613-8c96-4124-acd2-9fe7ef9376ed","order_by":0,"name":"David Lobell","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA3ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDCC4wxsDAwFFnJgTgUDA2MDA4MBfi2HQVoMJIxBFMMZUrQkNhCthe8w87EHHwwk0ufPb3724EDFPdkG9uZtEvi0SB5mSzecYSCRu+EYm7nBgTPFxg08x8rwajE4zGMmzQPSwsZgJv2xLSGxQSLHjLCWP0CHybexf5M4CNIi/4YILUDvJzAc4zGDaJHgwa8F7JceAwnDDcdyyiQOnEkwbuNJK7bAp4XvePOxBz8qbOTlm49vkzhQkSDbz3544w18WjABG2nKR8EoGAWjYBRgAwC8aUb4NgFElgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5969-3476","institution":"Stanford University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"David","middleName":"","lastName":"Lobell","suffix":""},{"id":310837596,"identity":"49dfce07-32ab-4816-b2a3-05dda09ce7a4","order_by":1,"name":"Richard Lee","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Stanford University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Richard","middleName":"","lastName":"Lee","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-04-29 20:05:13","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4344936/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4344936/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-025-01203-1","type":"published","date":"2025-07-15T04:00:00+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":86834864,"identity":"38d06822-4b11-4c88-aca1-c5a8d2c05a81","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-07-16 07:06:28","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2482806,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"safr.trends.v1.apr1524.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4344936/v1_covered_ed4a7737-2be7-440f-8580-b421c6a8e871.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Stagnant crop productivity growth in southern Africa despite moderate climate trends","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4344936/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4344936/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Southern Africa is facing a unique combination of high rates of current food insecurity and projected declines in agro-climatic conditions due to climate change. 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