Air quality trade-offs of a rapid expansion of personal electric vehicles in China

Abstract In China, replacing gasoline cars with electric vehicles (EVs) is at the center of a strategy to reduce air pollution and CO2 emissions from transportation. Previous estimates of the benefits of vehicle electrification quantified the impact of EV use on on-road and power generation emissions only, thereby neglecting gasoline production. This study presents the first “use-cycle” analysis of EVs in China, including changes in emissions from transportation, power generation, and oil refineries. We use the GEOS-Chem atmospheric chemistry transport model to quantify how each sector contributes to the net impacts of EV use on air pollution (PM2.5 and ozone) in China. We find that the projected growth in EV usage by the end of 2020 results in ~1,900 (95% CI: 1,600–2,200) avoided premature mortalities annually and a 2.4 Mton decrease in CO2 emissions. 70% of the total reduction in mortality is due to avoided refinery emissions. As refinery emissions become more tightly regulated, our work implies that the power generation sector must also become cleaner for EVs to remain beneficial.